Tory support on the slide in Scotland

Conservative support falls as new poll shows Labour is likely to take back power from SNP.

The Conservatives may generally be polling well but it's a different story in Scotland, where they're lagging in fourth place. A new poll by TNS-BMRB for the Herald, ahead of next May's Scottish Parliament election, puts them down 3 to 10 per cent in the constituency section and down 1 to 11 per cent in the regional section.

Meanwhile, Labour looks likely to take back power from the SNP next year, polling an impressive 46 per cent (+1) in the constituency section and 42 per cent (+1) in the regional section. The Lib Dems are unchanged on 12 per cent and 11 per cent.

For a sense of how significant the swing to Labour is, it's worth remembering that in 2007 the party polled just 32.2 per cent in the constituency section and 29.2 per cent in the regional section.

As for the Tories, after their disappointing perfomance in Scotland at the general election and, now, their falling poll ratings, there must be some wondering if they'll ever be a truly national party again.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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How Theresa May laid a trap for herself on the immigration target

When Home Secretary, she insisted on keeping foreign students in the figures – causing a headache for herself today.

When Home Secretary, Theresa May insisted that foreign students should continue to be counted in the overall immigration figures. Some cabinet colleagues, including then Business Secretary Vince Cable and Chancellor George Osborne wanted to reverse this. It was economically illiterate. Current ministers, like the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Chancellor Philip Hammond and Home Secretary Amber Rudd, also want foreign students exempted from the total.

David Cameron’s government aimed to cut immigration figures – including overseas students in that aim meant trying to limit one of the UK’s crucial financial resources. They are worth £25bn to the UK economy, and their fees make up 14 per cent of total university income. And the impact is not just financial – welcoming foreign students is diplomatically and culturally key to Britain’s reputation and its relationship with the rest of the world too. Even more important now Brexit is on its way.

But they stayed in the figures – a situation that, along with counterproductive visa restrictions also introduced by May’s old department, put a lot of foreign students off studying here. For example, there has been a 44 per cent decrease in the number of Indian students coming to Britain to study in the last five years.

Now May’s stubbornness on the migration figures appears to have caught up with her. The Times has revealed that the Prime Minister is ready to “soften her longstanding opposition to taking foreign students out of immigration totals”. It reports that she will offer to change the way the numbers are calculated.

Why the u-turn? No 10 says the concession is to ensure the Higher and Research Bill, key university legislation, can pass due to a Lords amendment urging the government not to count students as “long-term migrants” for “public policy purposes”.

But it will also be a factor in May’s manifesto pledge (and continuation of Cameron’s promise) to cut immigration to the “tens of thousands”. Until today, ministers had been unclear about whether this would be in the manifesto.

Now her u-turn on student figures is being seized upon by opposition parties as “massaging” the migration figures to meet her target. An accusation for which May only has herself, and her steadfast politicising of immigration, to blame.

Anoosh Chakelian is senior writer at the New Statesman.

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