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How low will the Lib Dems go?

Liberal Democrats fall to 12 per cent in new YouGov poll, their lowest rating since 2007.

There's more bad news for the Lib Dems in today's papers, with a Sunday Times/YouGov poll putting the party on just 12 per cent, their lowest poll rating since October 2007. By contrast, the Tories are on 42 per cent, with Labour on an impressive 38 per cent.

Appearing on The Andrew Marr Show this morning, Chris Huhne responded to the poll results by pointing out: "I can remember a time when we had opinion polls where we were just an asterisk. We were literally within the margin of error of zero."

A few months ago his leader spoke of replacing Labour as the second party. How the Lib Dems' ambitions have narrowed.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

chart

Hung parliament: Conservatives 12 seats short.

Most in the party are genuinely relaxed about their slide in the polls, explaining it away as what happens to a junior coalition partner until it has established itself in government. But unless the Lib Dems' ratings improve, we can expect tensions to grow in the run-up to the conference season.

The risk for the Lib Dems is that they will share the blame for things that go badly and take little of the credit for things that go well. As Janet Daley writes in the Sunday Telegraph:

The electoral problem for the Lib Dems is this: however much they may genuinely support and help to facilitate these reforms, they will not get the credit for them. If the schools and welfare reorganisations succeed, it will be Michael Gove and Iain Duncan Smith who will be seen as the authors of the triumph. But if they fail, or are unpopular, the Lib Dems will share the ignominy.

For the Conservatives, the fear is that the fall in Lib Dem popularity may eventually make the coalition unworkable, and that Lib Dem MPs, fearful of losing their seats, will begin to rebel to maintain their distinctiveness. But either way, both parties should prepare for much worse once those 25 per cent cuts kick in.

42 comments

jie4v7i14's picture

praha, I stole it from Guardian cartoonists, they thought of it first, but yes, didn't take much imagination to make up.
: )

link, http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/cartoons/2010/5/14/1273...

and the latest, with the rest of his friends. No sign of Jiminy Cricket still, though, to save his nose/arse,
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Admin/BkFill/Default_image_group/201...

alan's picture

The more the libdums use the very tired old line of Labour bankrupted the country,we're spending £4 in every £5 the less even they seem to believe it.

I knew things where bad but to seen Hune sit there this blissfully unaware seemingly that his party may well be wiped out come next election was staggering,people wont forgive or forget whats coming and your party will go under and i rather suspect we could see a huge backlash towards Cam the shame at some point.

They have comiting political suicide and they cant see it or rather they can but can see their cars and red boxes to keep them warm (and for 1 or 2 of them safe Tory seats come next election) its utter madness.

puzzlebobble's picture

I thought Clegg was a closet tory before the election. What has surprised me has been the complete lack of balls in the likes of Kennedy and co. I regret ever having voted for the LDs when he was leader.

Unfortunately my MP is Featherstone; hopefully she'll get the boot soon.

Robert's picture

The notion of a non-aggression pact between the LD's and Tories is the obvious way to go.

It's tried and tested in local government - as was the whole coalition thing.

More interestingly there's a great example of this type of coalition government in Australia. And they are having an election just now.

That's the model to watch.

Gideon Polya's picture

In 1945 many Germans said that they "didn't know" about the Nazi atrocities in the WW2 Holocaust (30 million Slavs, Jews and Gypsies killed with many dying from war-imposed deprivation).

In 2010 Britons have no such excuse - several mouse-clicks will reveal the Awful Truth of violent and non-violent excess deaths associated with what many eminent scholars and writers now variously call the Palestinian Genocide, Iraqi Genocide and Afghan Genocide (0.3 million, 4.4 million and 4.5 million violent and non-violent excess deaths, respectively; see "Muslim Holocaust, Muslim Genocide": http://sites.google.com/site/muslimholocaustmuslimgenocide/ ) .

To Nick Clegg's credit he is one of a small group of British politicians who have had the moral courage to speak out on at least part of this horrendous, ongoing atrocity.

Thus while Nick Clegg will be condemned by History for supporting the Afghanistan War, he has unequivocally condemned the Iraq Invasion as illegal; "[re Jack Straw] we may have to wait for his memoirs, but perhaps one day he will account for his role in the most disastrous decision of all: the illegal invasion of Iraq" (see UK Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jul/21/nick-clegg-illegal-iraq-w... ).

Of course while Nazi Germany was a dictatorship the UK is a democracy (albeit a Murdochracy, Lobbyocracy kind of democracy) - and accordingly unlike the good Germans who "didn't know" (and couldn't do much about it if they did), all British citizens are morally obliged to support anti-war politicians like George Galloway, and failing that, to at the very least support politicians like Nick Clegg with the courage to at least oppose the illegal and genocidal Iraq War (and failing that, British voters are accessories after the fact of the world's worst war crimes since WW2).

red  trev's picture

what your seeing now is the size of the labour landslide at the next election . cleeg and his shower are on the way to the dustbin of history. bye bye you wont be missed.

jie4v7i14's picture

praha, might as well tell where I got 'the stupid boy' part from as well, in video,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0V3SqxUomwk

moss78's picture

The Two Faced Lib Dems are Doomed

swatantra's picture

Doomed. Doomed. But all they need is a core vote of 12%, and they'll always hold the balance of power I think that puts another gloss on it. So they could end up laughing.

Mark Edwards's picture

Oh, I'm so loving this! The Lib Dems lied their way into power, only to see their future melt away. They won't even get AV, the thing they sold their souls for - everyone I know will vote against it in a referendum precisely because that's a way to hurt the Lib Dems. Even leaving the coalition won't save them - it's too late, no-one will ever believe them ever again. Ha ha ha!

Fraziel's picture

I voted lib dem for the first and last ever time at the election. It is shocking to see Clegg support this hard right cuts agenda.Talk about selling your soul!

triedeinsursE's picture

Lib Dems whatever. Ya'al are Socialists and will never climb out the hole you have made for yourselves.

praha7's picture

@Robert.
If they are going to stand down in each other's favour what is the point of the A.V.referendum?
So much for more choice,fairness and democracy.
You are just like the rest of your unprincipled Lib/Dem chums only interested in power regardless of the cost to the people.

Hriday's picture

Nick Clegg looks forlorn & sad.He gives the impression of a man who sold his soul for power.Lib-Dem is bound to get a bloody good kicking from the electorate in the May local elections & beyod.

Dave C's picture

How low can the Lib Dems go?

"The lowest the Liberal Democrat party has ever polled seems to be 4% in MORI’s polls between June and August 1989, when their support was being split by the continuing SDP.

"Looking at their predecessor, the lowest Liberal party score I can find in a poll was 1.5% in a Gallup poll in 1955."

"...an ICM poll from the Sunday Correspondent in 1989 that had the Lib Dems at 3% ... Can anyone beat that?"

Thanks to: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2767

Looking forward to a future 3%.

Nick's picture

When this lot was cobbled together, it was done on some false pretence of being a 'strong government'; it's no such thing. If a direct comparison is made with Labour's overwhelming majority in 1997 and what we have now in terms of strength, there is a marked difference. Labour was undeniably strong in it's formative years as New Labour. A strong government is built upon stability. Labour enjoyed a long period where, like it or loathe it, they had power.

This coalition has no such thing; it's a highly volatile cocktail which simply doesn't mix. It's predominantly Tory in all that it does and we should not forget that the country made it clear that it did not want a Tory government. The liberals are doing themselves no favours at all by conceding to the Tories on everything. Even if they get their way on electoral reform it won't matter because people simply won't be taken in by the liberals by then; their unpopularity will only decline further.

It'll end up a clear fight between the old style Tories and whatever Labour put up as a credible alternative. The Tories will lose in the long run because people will simply not stand for mass unemployment, the welfare reforms will do more harm than good, health reforms will fail (doing away with PCT's is not going to go down well with surgeries who are more concerned with their patients than the paperwork), the academy programme already shows signs of failure by way of its low take up,nothing seems to be appealing to anyone. Osborne's now pleading with the banks to lend to kick start some form of business lending as a stimulus but the truth is that companies are too wary of borrowing because of their deep mistrust in the banks. It's rapidly becoming the disaster story most people had nightmares about; let's just hope this lot is forced to go to the country well before 5 wretched years of misery.

Those that harp on about how bad things were under Labour will come to realize that what's set to come is a whole lot worse. Surely this can't go on, my guess is it will come crashing down in 18 months before a situation is forced that this lot has to concede to defeat.

Victor's picture

If you fell asleep around about 1860 and woke up today, you would recognise immediately the sort of government Britain has, viz: a Tory/Whig coalition.

As a former Liberal voter of many decades standing (now resident overseas), I'd like to know what's happened to the party of J.M. Keynes?

Mary Locke's picture

The labour share is increasing slowly and steadily.

ang's picture

Thank goodness, hey Mary, I was hoping for this.

jeremiah's picture

Hey Nick, Enjoy the grace and favour and your limo, you're going down in flames!

Nevermore's picture

I said it before they announced the coalition. Clegg has killed the LibDems as a serious player in Parliamentary politics.They had a chance to use a small wedge of power and they sold it for personal gain. Clegg behaved like a whore, now he will find the rewards weren't quite as substantial as he thought.
LibDems vote LibDem because they do not want to vote tory. So why on earth would they suport any government inficting the usual tory attacks on the poor and weak in society. They should call Clegg 'Flusher' Clegg, that is what he has done...flushed the libdems down the soil pipe of politics.

demonax3's picture

single figures -here we come.

chris's picture

The big hole in the LibDem argument is that their post election poll slides are put down to lack of media coverage. But since this election they've had as much, if not more, coverage than they during the election campaign.

In 39 of their seats the Labour party are in second and since 97 Labour has lost 1.9 million voters to the LibDems. I think over the next couple of years there will be another death of Liberal England, but it this death won't be strange.

The LibDems had a once in a generation chance to get a ref on PR. But Clegg fucked it because he is fundamentally a pro-EU tory. Tatty bye LibDems although I thought some of your policies decent I always found you to be sanctimonious and unprincipled, Clegg being a prime example.

Chris's picture

Finally, the Lib Dems will be destroyed and stop stealing Labour votes, well done Nick.

ang's picture

does anyone else feel, that when clegg speaks, it's like he's telling a story to his children, night night nick.

Dark Lord's picture

I can only hope this will bite into the Tories as well.

This bunch are even worse than the last bunch of Tories in power.

Mr Cameron, will no doubt introduce a vote overturn Fox Hunting cut the minimum wage.

Yahoorsur's picture

Chris
Good post,the lib Dums are really in trouble.

stevem1's picture

I must say I am surprised at the Labour figure. All this without a leader. It would be so much better if NuLab were not in the ascendancy. If a start could be made in clearing them out and making the party look like genuinely social democratic may have a future.

Graeme's picture

What we have is tyranny and when an unelected government rips up the welfare state - well, you might expect anger to boil over.

swatantra's picture

How long is a piece of sting?
you can't berudge the Lib Dems for having a go at Govt. Only the curmudgenly miserable anaroaks in their glass houses would begrudg them that. They've been going to their constituencies and preparing for 60 years and its probably the only chance they'll get.

Martin L's picture

all it means that Labour will be back in soon, with a whole new mandate to continue our financial and moral bankruptcy

Mark's picture

When you dance with the devil, you'll have hell to pay, as the Lib Dems are now beginning to find out.

ernest boddy's picture

i have just read the poll figures and i find them very amusing, all that sickly rubbish glegg talked before the elec, in the house about the tories &labour not making the banks lend more money, i read osborne is going to make the banks lend more money, if he and chameleon had there way, there would'nt be any banks they would all have gone bust,& includs tosser glegg

Nick's picture

Labour were unpopular towards the end of an otherwise impressive 13 year term. It makes me laugh how those in support of this disastrous coalition can only moot unsubstantiated comment about how we'd have gone bankrupt etc etc. Truth is; I reckon even Cameron and Clegg know their crazy plans won't work, it's what comes of cobbled together plans made in a mere 5 days just for the glory moment fancied by two individuals who fancied a spell in Downing Street. I totally agree that the Liberals, in their current form, are finished; and the Tories won't be far behind once the true extent of damage is felt.

Graeme's picture

The LibDems are going down the pan, and rightly so. They disgust me. But as someone said at the Radio 5 hustings, Labour in power had lost the plot - wars, ID cards, and many other foolish mistakes. Now when the new governemnt are attacking us and our people, we desperately need Labour to defend us, and to do the job.

Surely now under a new leader, the party can concentrate on the fundamental issues for which the party should exist.

ang's picture

stevem is right to be surprised at the poll for labour at this point,just imagine the ratings when david milliband, who made me so proud when he called cameron a loudmouth, is at the helm.

Mrs Nobody's picture

The coalition was political suicide for the LibDems. Nick's face above seems to show that he's finally understood that - hahahaha

jie4v7i14's picture

Pinocchio looks to be well and truly buggering up his party for a good few decades, if not forever.

You stupid boy.

frances smith's picture

i hope this steady increase in labour support doesnt mean the electorate prefer them without a leader.

its obvious that this coalition cant last, and that is good news because this little episode in our history has revealed that our system of democracy is held in total contempt by these people.

however, there are still a number of issues that labour has to address relating to why they failed, before the next election when both the conservatives and libdems are wiped out FOREVER.

praha7's picture

@Ehtch Tee.
Pinocchio,that's wonderful I wish I'd thought of it.

Andrew's picture

Lib Dems have destroyed their own brand. I don't even think their staunchest advocate could describe what the party stands for. Back to the minor leagues for Nick et al.

cc's picture

be interesting to see which LibDems would lose their seats if there was an election

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