How low will the Lib Dems go?

Liberal Democrats fall to 12 per cent in new YouGov poll, their lowest rating since 2007.

There's more bad news for the Lib Dems in today's papers, with a Sunday Times/YouGov poll putting the party on just 12 per cent, their lowest poll rating since October 2007. By contrast, the Tories are on 42 per cent, with Labour on an impressive 38 per cent.

Appearing on The Andrew Marr Show this morning, Chris Huhne responded to the poll results by pointing out: "I can remember a time when we had opinion polls where we were just an asterisk. We were literally within the margin of error of zero."

A few months ago his leader spoke of replacing Labour as the second party. How the Lib Dems' ambitions have narrowed.

New Statesman Poll of Polls


Hung parliament: Conservatives 12 seats short.

Most in the party are genuinely relaxed about their slide in the polls, explaining it away as what happens to a junior coalition partner until it has established itself in government. But unless the Lib Dems' ratings improve, we can expect tensions to grow in the run-up to the conference season.

The risk for the Lib Dems is that they will share the blame for things that go badly and take little of the credit for things that go well. As Janet Daley writes in the Sunday Telegraph:

The electoral problem for the Lib Dems is this: however much they may genuinely support and help to facilitate these reforms, they will not get the credit for them. If the schools and welfare reorganisations succeed, it will be Michael Gove and Iain Duncan Smith who will be seen as the authors of the triumph. But if they fail, or are unpopular, the Lib Dems will share the ignominy.

For the Conservatives, the fear is that the fall in Lib Dem popularity may eventually make the coalition unworkable, and that Lib Dem MPs, fearful of losing their seats, will begin to rebel to maintain their distinctiveness. But either way, both parties should prepare for much worse once those 25 per cent cuts kick in.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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The Fire Brigades Union reaffiliates to Labour - what does it mean?

Any union rejoining Labour will be welcomed by most in the party - but the impact on the party's internal politics will be smaller than you think.

The Fire Brigades Union (FBU) has voted to reaffiliate to the Labour party, in what is seen as a boost to Jeremy Corbyn. What does it mean for Labour’s internal politics?

Firstly, technically, the FBU has never affliated before as they are notionally part of the civil service - however, following the firefighters' strike in 2004, they decisively broke with Labour.

The main impact will be felt on the floor of Labour party conference. Although the FBU’s membership – at around 38,000 – is too small to have a material effect on the outcome of votes themselves, it will change the tenor of the motions put before party conference.

The FBU’s leadership is not only to the left of most unions in the Trades Union Congress (TUC), it is more inclined to bring motions relating to foreign affairs than other unions with similar politics (it is more internationalist in focus than, say, the PCS, another union that may affiliate due to Corbyn’s leadership). Motions on Israel/Palestine, the nuclear deterrent, and other issues, will find more support from FBU delegates than it has from other affiliated trade unions.

In terms of the balance of power between the affiliated unions themselves, the FBU’s re-entry into Labour politics is unlikely to be much of a gamechanger. Trade union positions, elected by trade union delegates at conference, are unlikely to be moved leftwards by the reaffiliation of the FBU. Unite, the GMB, Unison and Usdaw are all large enough to all-but-guarantee themselves a seat around the NEC. Community, a small centrist union, has already lost its place on the NEC in favour of the bakers’ union, which is more aligned to Tom Watson than Jeremy Corbyn.

Matt Wrack, the FBU’s General Secretary, will be a genuine ally to Corbyn and John McDonnell. Len McCluskey and Dave Prentis were both bounced into endorsing Corbyn by their executives and did so less than wholeheartedly. Tim Roache, the newly-elected General Secretary of the GMB, has publicly supported Corbyn but is seen as a more moderate voice at the TUC. Only Dave Ward of the Communication Workers’ Union, who lent staff and resources to both Corbyn’s campaign team and to the parliamentary staff of Corbyn and McDonnell, is truly on side.

The impact of reaffiliation may be felt more keenly in local parties. The FBU’s membership looks small in real terms compared Unite and Unison have memberships of over a million, while the GMB and Usdaw are around the half-a-million mark, but is much more impressive when you consider that there are just 48,000 firefighters in Britain. This may make them more likely to participate in internal elections than other affiliated trade unionists, just 60,000 of whom voted in the Labour leadership election in 2015. However, it is worth noting that it is statistically unlikely most firefighters are Corbynites - those that are will mostly have already joined themselves. The affiliation, while a morale boost for many in the Labour party, is unlikely to prove as significant to the direction of the party as the outcome of Unison’s general secretary election or the struggle for power at the top of Unite in 2018. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.