The real difference between the Milibands

What the brothers really disagree about is why Labour lost, and how it must change to win again.

For the first time in Labour's history, party members will return leadership ballots, which hit their doormats yesterday, without knowing who will win. That is because Ed Miliband rejected a Bobby Kennedy role, seeking to influence his brother's leadership from a kitchen-table seat. A significant political disagreement with his brother gave him reason to believe that his advice would seldom be taken.

That argument has finally moved to centre-stage as the campaign closes. It is not about different world-views -- both are social democrats who believe that Labour's mission is to narrow the gap in life chances, albeit with mildly different instincts about how to get there. And the brothers have resisted excessively personalising their fraternal battle, to the mutual frustration of some supporters.

What the Milibands really disagree about is why Labour lost and how to win again. Couching the argument in psephological number-crunching about the shifting class structure, they are playing out a deeper existential question about the party's strategy and public identity. What does "moving on" from New Labour mean, and how deep should it go? David Miliband warns that throwing out too much of a recently successful formula could mean a long spell in opposition; Ed Miliband fears that it is failing to recognise the scale of change needed which would keep the party from power.

David Miliband's campaign presents the election as a "head versus heart" choice. The idea that Ed Miliband is a "comfort zone" candidate irks John Denham, the Southampton MP who has focused most on Labour's southern challenge and who is leading on future policy development for Ed Miliband's campaign.

Denham warns that what he calls the "New Labour establishment" could fatally underestimate how much must change. "It is Ed Miliband who is the brave choice, who says 'we are going to have to change again as we changed before' against those who think we have still pretty much got it right and need to tweak things a bit to return to our winning formula," he says.

The sharpest argument in the party's inquest into May 2010 is not about this May but Labour's last victory five years earlier. Whether to treat that as a triumph or near-disaster could determine whether "change" is in a major or minor key. For Liam Byrne, the main election number cruncher backing David Miliband, the "simple fact" about 2005 is that "Labour won", with the historic 1997 New Labour coalition "sustained to carry Labour to victory once again". Byrne's Progress paper on the 2010 defeat argues that the lessons of 2005 were "much misunderstood", alluding to fierce internal arguments over the analysis he produced at Tony Blair's behest that autumn, just as New Labour factionalism hit new lows.

Contrast 2005 with 2010 and the message is "carry on New Labour". The recession, Gordon Brown's brooding presence and the MPs' expenses crisis all deepened a "time for a change" mood after 13 years in power. These one-off factors shall pass. Even in soberly assessing Labour's 29 per cent share, Byrne declares "our coalition was cracked but not broken".

Denham is unconvinced. A focus on the one million votes lost after 2005 "misses the point" of the four million votes lost before 2005. Thirty-five per cent could just be enough under first-past-the-post, if votes fall happily, but how often should Labour expect as unattractive an opponent as Michael Howard? In this view, Humpty-Dumpty cannot be put together again: the deep fracturing of New Labour's electoral coalition demands a more fundamental reappraisal.

New Labour already had a "one more heave" victory in 2005 and surely experienced a "one more heave" defeat in 2010. Gordon Brown ran on "change" yet failed to define it. Why? Ultimately, because he could see no viable alternative to the New Labour election playbook.

"We quickly defaulted to a textbook New Labour campaign," says Patrick Diamond, who worked at No 10 for both Blair and Brown. "Brown never took the chance to recast New Labour: was it that the opportunity didn't really exist, or was it a failure of imagination or courage?"

Diamond, who has not endorsed a leadership candidate, believes that the next leader must realise that a strategy of "consolidating New Labour modernisation" will fail. "It simply leaves too many questions unanswered" about a very different world, he says, and underestimates the coalition, too.

Core votes?

Premature obituaries for Labour now date back a half-century to the Must Labour Lose? Penguin special of 1960. New Labour escaped death by sociological treatise, yet now finds a sting in the tail. A party on 29 per cent is assumed to have "retreated" to its "core vote". Yes, even as Labour's vote fell across 2001, 2005 and 2010, each election produced the most balanced cross-class pattern of votes in the party's history. New Labour's professional support proved much more resilient than the so-called core vote, which collapsed.

"The core Labour vote that some thought could be taken for granted became the swing vote that went Conservative," wrote Ed Miliband in his recent Fabian essay. The dramatic post-1997 slump in DE share alone cost Labour 40 marginal seats in 2010: the difference between opposition and government.

But the former Scottish secretary Jim Murphy, co-chair of the David Miliband campaign, tells me: "A core vote strategy guarantees you opposition. It fails the Downing Street test. The road back to power isn't inverting the mistake of New Labour and describing that as a strategy." Yet the pejorative expression "core votes" is misapplied to those voters most likely to switch.

"It is dangerous to pretend that we don't need the middle classes," warns David Miliband. His brother could hardly disagree, but he does argue that New Labour has also understood the loss of middle-class support -- too often dismissing liberal critics as a noisy, unrepresentative Guardianista niche, though AB and C1 voters have been twice as likely to go yellow as blue. Labour's working-class and middle-class challenges mirror each other, in the scale of substantive policy change and symbolism required on both economics and social liberalism to reconnect.

This argument between the Milibands is often narrower than that between their supporters. David Miliband would represent more continuity than his brother, but knows that the next leader must credibly substantiate the claim to "change". His argument that "an alphabet analysis can lead you backwards into the triangulation politics which led to our downfall" signals his own critique of New Labour.

If the coalition lasts until 2015, the next election -- coming 18 years after 1997 -- would take place in a Britain as distant from Tony Blair's first victory as that landslide was from Maggie Thatcher's defeat of Jim Callaghan. The new leader might find inspiration in the history of how Labour built a broad winning coalition in 1997, 1966 or 1945. But they will have to build Labour's next governing majority for themselves.

Sunder Katwala is general secretary of the Fabian Society.

Sunder Katwala is director of British Future and former general secretary of the Fabian Society.

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Our union backed Brexit, but that doesn't mean scrapping freedom of movement

We can only improve the lives of our members, like those planning stike action at McDonalds, through solidarity.

The campaign to defend and extend free movement – highlighted by the launch of the Labour Campaign for Free Movement this month – is being seen in some circles as a back door strategy to re-run the EU referendum. If that was truly the case, then I don't think Unions like mine (the BFAWU) would be involved, especially as we campaigned to leave the EU ourselves.

In stark contrast to the rhetoric used by many sections of the Leave campaign, our argument wasn’t driven by fear and paranoia about migrant workers. A good number of the BFAWU’s membership is made up of workers not just from the EU, but from all corners of the world. They make a positive contribution to the industry that we represent. These people make a far larger and important contribution to our society and our communities than the wealthy Brexiteers, who sought to do nothing other than de-humanise them, cheered along by a rabid, right-wing press. 

Those who are calling for end to freedom of movement fail to realise that it’s people, rather than land and borders that makes the world we live in. Division works only in the interest of those that want to hold power, control, influence and wealth. Unfortunately, despite a rich history in terms of where division leads us, a good chunk of the UK population still falls for it. We believe that those who live and work here or in other countries should have their skills recognised and enjoy the same rights as those born in that country, including the democratic right to vote. 

Workers born outside of the UK contribute more than £328 million to the UK economy every day. Our NHS depends on their labour in order to keep it running; the leisure and hospitality industries depend on them in order to function; the food industry (including farming to a degree) is often propped up by their work.

The real architects of our misery and hardship reside in Westminster. It is they who introduced legislation designed to allow bosses to act with impunity and pay poverty wages. The only way we can really improve our lives is not as some would have you believe, by blaming other poor workers from other countries, it is through standing together in solidarity. By organising and combining that we become stronger as our fabulous members are showing through their decision to ballot for strike action in McDonalds.

Our members in McDonalds are both born in the UK and outside the UK, and where the bosses have separated groups of workers by pitting certain nationalities against each other, the workers organised have stood together and fought to win change for all, even organising themed social events to welcome each other in the face of the bosses ‘attempts to create divisions in the workplace.

Our union has held the long term view that we should have a planned economy with an ability to own and control the means of production. Our members saw the EU as a gravy train, working in the interests of wealthy elites and industrial scale tax avoidance. They felt that leaving the EU would give the UK the best opportunity to renationalise our key industries and begin a programme of manufacturing on a scale that would allow us to be self-sufficient and independent while enjoying solid trading relationships with other countries. Obviously, a key component in terms of facilitating this is continued freedom of movement.

Many of our members come from communities that voted to leave the EU. They are a reflection of real life that the movers and shakers in both the Leave and Remain campaigns took for granted. We weren’t surprised by the outcome of the EU referendum; after decades of politicians heaping blame on the EU for everything from the shape of fruit to personal hardship, what else could we possibly expect? However, we cannot allow migrant labour to remain as a political football to give succour to the prejudices of the uninformed. Given the same rights and freedoms as UK citizens, foreign workers have the ability to ensure that the UK actually makes a success of Brexit, one that benefits the many, rather than the few.

Ian Hodon is President of the Bakers and Allied Food Workers Union and founding signatory of the Labour Campaign for Free Movement.