Here comes another coalition

Australia’s prime minister, Julia Gillard, fails to win an outright majority.

Not all the votes have been counted, but the Australian prime minister, Julia Gillard, has been forced to concede that neither her party, Labor, nor the opposition conservative coalition is likely to win the 76 seats necessary for an outright majority.

ABC Australia is forecasting 72 seats for Labor and 73 for the conservatives.

The opposition leader, Tony Abbott, described the result as a "savage swing" against the government. It is a big blow for Gillard, who has been prime minister for only two months after ousting Kevin Rudd. Her honeymoon period as a new leader did not last long. Gillard must now woo a handful of independent candidates to try to form a government. If successful, it will be Australia's first coalition government in 70 years.

Useful analysis can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald, which suggests that Labor will win the race to form a government. But the bookies have named the conservative coalition as the favourite.

The Sportingbet Australia chief executive, Michael Sullivan, said it was "hard to see how a Labor government relying on support from a Green and essentially conservative independents would ever reach a consensus and be able to function effectively".

So, Australia possibly faces a coalition consisting of wildly different ideological elements. Rings a bell . . .

Sophie Elmhirst is features editor of the New Statesman

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This is no time for a coup against a successful Labour leader

Don't blame Jeremy Corbyn for the Labour Party's crisis.

"The people who are sovereign in our party are the members," said John McDonnell this morning. As the coup against Jeremy Corbyn gains pace, the Shadow Chancellor has been talking a lot of sense. "It is time for people to come together to work in the interest of the country," he told Peston on Sunday, while emphasising that people will quickly lose trust in politics altogether if this internal squabbling continues. 

The Tory party is in complete disarray. Just days ago, the first Tory leader in 23 years to win a majority for his party was forced to resign from Government after just over a year in charge. We have some form of caretaker Government. Those who led the Brexit campaign now have no idea what to do. 

It is disappointing that a handful of Labour parliamentarians have decided to join in with the disintegration of British politics.

The Labour Party had the opportunity to keep its head while all about it lost theirs. It could have positioned itself as a credible alternative to a broken Government and a Tory party in chaos. Instead we have been left with a pathetic attempt to overturn the democratic will of the membership. 

But this has been coming for some time. In my opinion it has very little to do with the ramifications of the referendum result. Jeremy Corbyn was asked to do two things throughout the campaign: first, get Labour voters to side with Remain, and second, get young people to do the same.

Nearly seven in ten Labour supporters backed Remain. Young voters supported Remain by a 4:1 margin. This is about much more than an allegedly half-hearted referendum performance.

The Parliamentary Labour Party has failed to come to terms with Jeremy Corbyn’s emphatic victory. In September of last year he was elected with 59.5 per cent of the vote, some 170,000 ahead of his closest rival. It is a fact worth repeating. If another Labour leadership election were to be called I would expect Jeremy Corbyn to win by a similar margin.

In the recent local elections Jeremy managed to increase Labour’s share of the national vote on the 2015 general election. They said he would lose every by-election. He has won them emphatically. Time and time again Jeremy has exceeded expectation while also having to deal with an embittered wing within his own party.

This is no time for a leadership coup. I am dumbfounded by the attempt to remove Jeremy. The only thing that will come out of this attempted coup is another leadership election that Jeremy will win. Those opposed to him will then find themselves back at square one. Such moves only hurt Labour’s electoral chances. Labour could be offering an ambitious plan to the country concerning our current relationship with Europe, if opponents of Jeremy Corbyn hadn't decided to drop a nuke on the party.

This is a crisis Jeremy should take no responsibility for. The "bitterites" will try and they will fail. Corbyn may face a crisis of confidence. But it's the handful of rebel Labour MPs that have forced the party into a crisis of existence.

Liam Young is a commentator for the IndependentNew Statesman, Mirror and others.