The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Here comes another coalition

Australia’s prime minister, Julia Gillard, fails to win an outright majority.

By Sophie Elmhirst Published 22 August 2010 12:20

Not all the votes have been counted, but the Australian prime minister, Julia Gillard, has been forced to concede that neither her party, Labor, nor the opposition conservative coalition is likely to win the 76 seats necessary for an outright majority.

ABC Australia is forecasting 72 seats for Labor and 73 for the conservatives.

The opposition leader, Tony Abbott, described the result as a "savage swing" against the government. It is a big blow for Gillard, who has been prime minister for only two months after ousting Kevin Rudd. Her honeymoon period as a new leader did not last long. Gillard must now woo a handful of independent candidates to try to form a government. If successful, it will be Australia's first coalition government in 70 years.

Useful analysis can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald, which suggests that Labor will win the race to form a government. But the bookies have named the conservative coalition as the favourite.

The Sportingbet Australia chief executive, Michael Sullivan, said it was "hard to see how a Labor government relying on support from a Green and essentially conservative independents would ever reach a consensus and be able to function effectively".

So, Australia possibly faces a coalition consisting of wildly different ideological elements. Rings a bell . . .

Tags: Australia

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7 comments

Sun, 2010-08-22 12:50 — jeremiah

Bye bye Julia. Disloyalty has a high price. A majority of the "independents" are ex Liberal/Nationals and will probably support the coalition in any deal situation.

Sun, 2010-08-22 13:36 — Matt Holden (not verified)

The independents are ex-Nationals who left the Liberal National coalition because they don't support the Liberal Party's neo-liberal free-market pro-big business policies. The Liberals will have to come up with some pretty big compromises to their core beliefs to keep the independents on-side. The independents are more or less pro-government-intervention agrarian socialists -- more like the Labor Party used to be than the Liberals are or were. Labor will be able to accommodate them ideologically much more easily than the Liberals.

Sun, 2010-08-22 13:57 — Jim (not verified)

Australia's first coalition government for 70 years? The Liberal-National coalition has ruled for much of Australia's recent history. Sure, it's a permanent coalition, but it's a coalition nonetheless.

Sun, 2010-08-22 15:14 — Anthony (not verified)

I think you will find it is the first hung parliament for close to 70 years. The last coalition government was John Howard's of some three years ago.

Sun, 2010-08-22 16:36 — swatantra (not verified)

It'll make Aus politics a lot more more interesting. Bad luck to Julia, but the result might have been worse under Rudd ... or better. Who is to know. Abbott would be a step back to the bad old days.
In the end the electorate get the Govt they deserve. Lets hope its Labour.
I feel bit sorry for Rudd; great Australian spoke Mandarin saved the economy and realised that Australia's interest are more with ASEAN and the Pacific countries.
I like the idea of compulsory voting; makes the result more valid.