New poll puts Labour just 2 points behind Tories

Latest Ipsos MORI poll puts Labour on 38 per cent, with Tories just ahead on 40 per cent.

If more evidence were needed that Lib Dem voters are rapidly defecting to Labour, the latest Ipsos MORI political monitor should provide it. The poll puts Labour on 38 per cent, up 7 points since June, with the Lib Dems falling 5 to 14 per cent. The Tories are up 1 to 40 per cent.

If repeated at an election on a uniform swing, the figures would put Labour on 310 seats, the Tories on 294 and the Lib Dems on 20.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

Poll

Hung parliament: Conservatives nine seats short.

That Labour has achieved this level of support without a permanent leader and before George Osborne has introduced those 25 per cent cuts is impressive. CCHQ may claim that the Labour leadership hustings have provided "a goldmine of attack strategies", but it must fear that a populist, anti-cuts line could begin to resonate with voters.

I should add, of course, that several other polls out today show a less dramatic change in the coalition's fortunes. The latest Guardian/ICM poll, for instance, puts the Tories on 38 per cent, Labour on 34 per cent and the Lib Dems on 19 per cent. But you can bet it's the MORI poll they'll be talking about in Westminster tonight.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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