Labour gaining votes from disillusioned Lib Dems

Poll shows Labour closing the gap on the Tories, while the public is lukewarm about the coalition so

Labour is benefiting from voters deserting the Liberal Democrats, according to a new poll which also shows that economic uncertainty is cutting into support for the coalition.

The Guardian/ICM poll, published today, puts the Conservatives at 38 per cent, down 1 point on last month's Guardian poll, and 8 points lower than last week's YouGov survey.

This latest puts Labour just 4 points behind the Tories, with 34 per cent of the vote. The Liberal Democrats are on 19 per cent.

While this is an improvement on the dire 13 per cent support for the Lib Dems in the YouGov poll, there is still evidence of disillusionment among Lib Dem voters, many of whom are to the left of the leadership. Although the two other parties retained the votes of nine out of ten of those who supported them in the election, the Lib Dems retained just seven out of ten, and another two said they had switched to Labour.

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The poll shows a near-equal split of opinion on economic issues. Although a narrow majority of 51 per cent think that Britain is likely to fall back into recession, 43 per cent disagree. If nothing else, this shows that the initial boost in poll ratings after the Budget has not been sustained. Such uncertainty at this stage -- before the painful effects of deep public-sector cuts begins to be felt -- does not bode well for future support for the government. Ninety-one per cent said that the cuts and tax rises would hurt.

About the government's performance so far, the public is lukewarm. Asked to award it marks out of ten, the total score is just 5.1. Support for the coalition is considerably weaker in Scotland and the north of England, and -- perhaps unsurprising, but certainly telling -- the coalition has far greater support among rich voters than among poorer people.

Samira Shackle is a freelance journalist, who tweets @samirashackle. She was formerly a staff writer for the New Statesman.

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In your 30s? You missed out on £26,000 and you're not even protesting

The 1980s kids seem resigned to their fate - for now. 

Imagine you’re in your thirties, and you’re renting in a shared house, on roughly the same pay you earned five years ago. Now imagine you have a friend, also in their thirties. This friend owns their own home, gets pay rises every year and has a more generous pension to beat. In fact, they are twice as rich as you. 

When you try to talk about how worried you are about your financial situation, the friend shrugs and says: “I was in that situation too.”

Un-friend, right? But this is, in fact, reality. A study from the Institute for Fiscal Studies found that Brits in their early thirties have a median wealth of £27,000. But ten years ago, a thirty something had £53,000. In other words, that unbearable friend is just someone exactly the same as you, who is now in their forties. 

Not only do Brits born in the early 1980s have half the wealth they would have had if they were born in the 1970s, but they are the first generation to be in this position since World War II.  According to the IFS study, each cohort has got progressively richer. But then, just as the 1980s kids were reaching adulthood, a couple of things happened at once.

House prices raced ahead of wages. Employers made pensions less generous. And, at the crucial point that the 1980s kids were finding their feet in the jobs market, the recession struck. The 1980s kids didn’t manage to buy homes in time to take advantage of low mortgage rates. Instead, they are stuck paying increasing amounts of rent. 

If the wealth distribution between someone in their 30s and someone in their 40s is stark, this is only the starting point in intergenerational inequality. The IFS expects pensioners’ incomes to race ahead of workers in the coming decade. 

So why, given this unprecedented reversal in fortunes, are Brits in their early thirties not marching in the streets? Why are they not burning tyres outside the Treasury while shouting: “Give us out £26k back?” 

The obvious fact that no one is going to be protesting their granny’s good fortune aside, it seems one reason for the 1980s kids’ resignation is they are still in denial. One thirty something wrote to The Staggers that the idea of being able to buy a house had become too abstract to worry about. Instead:

“You just try and get through this month and then worry about next month, which is probably self-defeating, but I think it's quite tough to get in the mindset that you're going to put something by so maybe in 10 years you can buy a shoebox a two-hour train ride from where you actually want to be.”

Another reflected that “people keep saying ‘something will turn up’”.

The Staggers turned to our resident thirty something, Yo Zushi, for his thoughts. He agreed with the IFS analysis that the recession mattered:

"We were spoiled by an artificially inflated balloon of cheap credit and growing up was something you did… later. Then the crash came in 2007-2008, and it became something we couldn’t afford to do. 

I would have got round to becoming comfortably off, I tell myself, had I been given another ten years of amoral capitalist boom to do so. Many of those who were born in the early 1970s drifted along, took a nap and woke up in possession of a house, all mod cons and a decent-paying job. But we slightly younger Gen X-ers followed in their slipstream and somehow fell off the edge. Oh well. "

Will the inertia of the1980s kids last? Perhaps – but Zushi sees in the support for Jeremy Corbyn, a swell of feeling at last. “Our lack of access to the life we were promised in our teens has woken many of us up to why things suck. That’s a good thing. 

“And now we have Corbyn to help sort it all out. That’s not meant sarcastically – I really think he’ll do it.”