The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Labour gaining votes from disillusioned Lib Dems

Poll shows Labour closing the gap on the Tories, while the public is lukewarm about the coalition so far.

By Samira Shackle Published 27 July 2010 10:24

Labour is benefiting from voters deserting the Liberal Democrats, according to a new poll which also shows that economic uncertainty is cutting into support for the coalition.

The Guardian/ICM poll, published today, puts the Conservatives at 38 per cent, down 1 point on last month's Guardian poll, and 8 points lower than last week's YouGov survey.

This latest puts Labour just 4 points behind the Tories, with 34 per cent of the vote. The Liberal Democrats are on 19 per cent.

While this is an improvement on the dire 13 per cent support for the Lib Dems in the YouGov poll, there is still evidence of disillusionment among Lib Dem voters, many of whom are to the left of the leadership. Although the two other parties retained the votes of nine out of ten of those who supported them in the election, the Lib Dems retained just seven out of ten, and another two said they had switched to Labour.

Graph

The poll shows a near-equal split of opinion on economic issues. Although a narrow majority of 51 per cent think that Britain is likely to fall back into recession, 43 per cent disagree. If nothing else, this shows that the initial boost in poll ratings after the Budget has not been sustained. Such uncertainty at this stage -- before the painful effects of deep public-sector cuts begins to be felt -- does not bode well for future support for the government. Ninety-one per cent said that the cuts and tax rises would hurt.

About the government's performance so far, the public is lukewarm. Asked to award it marks out of ten, the total score is just 5.1. Support for the coalition is considerably weaker in Scotland and the north of England, and -- perhaps unsurprising, but certainly telling -- the coalition has far greater support among rich voters than among poorer people.

Tags: Polls

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9 comments

Tue, 2010-07-27 10:51 — Dave C (not verified)

Interesting poll questions on Newsnight last night.

* Four in 10 people who say they voted Lib Dem would not have done had they known the party would enter a coalition with the Tories.

* 37% of Lib Dem voters felt their party was dishonest about cuts.

* Asked whether the Lib Dems had strengthened or weakened the party's identity since entering the coalition, 60% of all those polled agreed the party had weakened its identity and that they no longer knew what it stood for

* Among Lib Dem voters, 53% believed their party's identity had been weakened

* 57% of Lib Dem voters agreed that the coalition's proposed departmental cuts of at least 25% were too severe.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/8854870.stm

http://www.comres.co.uk/page1901764523.aspx

Tue, 2010-07-27 11:42 — Ricardo1

I can understand Liberals defecting to Labour. I mean obviously starting pointless wars, torture, errosion of civil rights, screwing up the economy and becoming a junior partner of a right wing conservative in Washington DC that the British people obviously didn't elect is forgivable.

But becoming a junior partner of a liberal British conservative whose party received more votes than any other at the last election to fix the previous government's problems is BEYOND THE PAIL!!!

Tue, 2010-07-27 11:43 — Tom Wildy (not verified)

The statistics quoted by Dave C are very interesting. The YouGov vs Guardian polls probably represent to broadly opposed self-selecting groups. However Dave C's third point re the LD identity gibes with my experience that the LDs as a party have no philosophy or agreed principles. This is demonstrated by their campaigning techniques which consist of agreeing with everyone (tell the occupants of No. 5 they will cut the tree down and those at No 6 that they will save it). Hence no surprise to find Clegg fulminating about 20% VAT one week, and supporting it the next. No principles at all.

Tue, 2010-07-27 12:47 — Derek Smith (not verified)

Does Ricardo not realise that the Tories supported the Iraq war; are far more aligned to the Republicans; have just pushed through education legislation using anti terror laws and managed to screw up the British economy twice in their last period in government which led to the broken society they claim we have now.

Tue, 2010-07-27 12:49 — Mark C (not verified)

VAT rising amongst other things shows that when it came down to it indeed the lib dems shunned all principles for power, things can only go downhill for the Lib Dems I'm sure of it.

Tue, 2010-07-27 13:05 — CromwellChiefofMen (not verified)

Derek Smith - are you equating torture of prisoners with passing legislation speedily? Would you like to comment on the abuse of anti-terror legislation over the last 13 years at national and local government level?

And which two instances of the economy been 'screwed up' under the Tories did you mean? The 80/81 recession casued by the disastrous policies of the previous government (recessions take months to cause; there wasn't time for the new '79 governement to cause a recession)?

Or the economy of '94-'97, with one of the longest sustained periods of post-war growth, falling unemployment, low taxation, huge tax receipts, falling national debt, budget surplus, and increasing spending, which was inherited by Labour and trashed? Are those the screw-ups you meant?

Tue, 2010-07-27 13:57 — Dave C (not verified)

@CromwellChiefofMen

Wonderfully selective memory there. You might remember there was a recession from 1990 to 1993, during the Tories' 18 years in power from 1979 to 1997. Do you blame that on Jim Callaghan as well?

Wed, 2010-07-28 01:31 — chris (not verified)

@Ricardo

I think you need to wake up and smell the shit your shovelling

"I can understand Liberals defecting to Labour. I mean obviously starting pointless wars, torture, errosion of civil rights, "

Over 150 Labour MPs voted against the Iraq war. The reason Blair & Brown weren't able to extend detention without trial is because Labour MPs were against it and I notice the LibCons haven't immediately moved to abolish it. Also, where was Clegg when the CPS announced no prosecution of the PC who pushed Ian Tomlinson, you bleat about civil liberties but the only action taken has been on the frankly pathetic infringements; ffs Clegg made a big announcement about stopping schools fingerprinting pupils without parental consent - woo-fucking-hoo big brother is beaten...NOT

"screwing up the economy and becoming a junior partner of a right wing conservative in Washington DC that the British people obviously didn't elect is forgivable."

LOL!!! The banks screwed the economy because they were given to much freedom by the tories. The name of the regulator, FSA or BoE, would have made no difference because it still wouldn't have had any powers. If in some horrible alternate reality where the LibDems formed the government would there have been a banking crisis? YES, their 2005 manifesto did not contain any measures that would have avoided it and they promised to exceed Labour's spending plans.

"and becoming a junior partner of a right wing conservative in Washington DC that the British people obviously didn't elect is forgivable."

HAHAHAHA!!! And the tories who are ideological soul mates in Washington? Who do they go to for advice on campaign techniques? Who do they buy website designs from?

The tory party are full of neo-cons and Thatcherites who wish to make Britain into mini-America with privatization of healthcare, education and god knows what else.

"But becoming a junior partner of a liberal British conservative whose party received more votes than any other at the last election to fix the previous government's problems is BEYOND THE PAIL!!!"

Maybe you or your family didn't suffer terribly under the tories, mine did!!! Many people who aren't even very political have one overriding opinion and that is hatred of the tory party and the nasty, selfish and mean policies it stands for, the LibDems are past masters of whipping up that hatred to win seats. Thus you shouldn't be very surprised when voters desert your miserable little party of backstabbers.

For a party that have called for a fairer voting system to now be figleafing the biggest attempt at gerrymandering in modern times is alone reason enough to despise the LibDems. The reduction in the number of MPs is an assault on our democracy which makes "Building Stable Communities" look tame.

Wed, 2010-07-28 10:07 — Charliechops1

Most of these comments are crude party propaganda. What really matters are voter experiences:do they have a job, will they get a pay rise, is the school their children attend fit for purpose? It is too soon to answer them. If voter experience is negative Labour might be able to force an early election. But don't uner-estimate Dave and Boy George. They won't sit around waiting for the axe!