Politics 5 July 2010 Could the Lib Dems win on AV and still walk away? Sign up for our weekly email * Print HTML Second-guessing the political impact of an AV referendum has become popular sport after news of the 2011 vote leaked late last week. Broadly, the consensus has it that a successful "Yes" vote is the result more likely to keep the Lib-Dem/Tory coalition together beyond 5 May next year. Neither outcome is risk-free for David Cameron, and a rump of Tory backbenchers (and some silent frontbenchers) will be disappointed should the British public back the Alternative Vote. But will they really be willing to put the coalition in jeopardy over it? Unlikely, on this issue alone. But how about the Lib Dems choosing to walk away even if they win the day? That idea was floated this morning by Peter Oborne in the Daily Mail. Oborne writes: This major piece of constitutional reform having been achieved, it would give those Lib Dems whose hearts have never been in the coalition (such as Charles Kennedy and Menzies Campbell) a ready excuse to ditch David Cameron in the belief that, in a pact with Labour, they could win an election. Surely, that's a scenario too far. Isn't it? › Who will succeed David Cameron as Tory leader? Jon Bernstein, former deputy editor of New Statesman, is a digital strategist and editor. He tweets @Jon_Bernstein. Subscribe from just £1 per issue More Related articles Leader: Labour is failing. A hard Brexit is looming. But there is no need for fatalism Theresa May's Article 50 letter: what she said, and what she meant In Birmingham after the Westminster attack: "You can't paint everyone with one brush"