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Labour’s historic challenge

Labour will have to defy history to bounce back after one term in opposition.

The consensus is that Labour has adapted well to life in opposition, perhaps too well, some say. Despite the lack of a permanent leader, the party's poll ratings have improved and the leadership contest has not been the bloodbath that some predicted.

But it's worth remembering that in order to return to government at the next election, the party will have to defy history. On the previous occasions that Labour has been removed from government, the party has usually been out of power for well over a decade (the exception is Harold Wilson's victory in 1974).

Here are the numbers:

1931-45: 14 years

1951-64: 13 years

1979-97: 18 years

Labour has a good chance of improving on this lamentable record. The party is more united than at any time in its history, and with 258 seats it has significantly more than seats than in 1983 and 1987. But there remains a lingering fear that the coalition will use its time in power to destory Labour as an electorally viable force.

First, David Cameron's plan to reduce the number of MPs by 10 per cent will hit Labour hardest by scrapping seats in Wales and industrial areas that have suffered population flight. Of the 50 seats likely to be abolished, 40 are Labour-held. It is for this reason that you will not meet a Labour MP prepared to support the boundary changes included in the Electoral Reform Bill.

Second, the coalition's plan to revisit the vexed issue of party funding could lead to the introduction of a cap on trade union donations to Labour. With the unions responsible for 64 per cent (£9.8m) of all donations to the party in 2009, such reforms could leave Labour bereft of the funds the party will need to run a successful election campaign.

Finally, were Scotland ever to opt for independence, although that now seems only a distant possibility, 41 of the 59 Westminster seats that would be automatically lost are Labour-held. It's worth adding that, in many of the seats that Labour lost in 2005, the party is now in third, not second, place.

So the next leader will face great challenges, but also the opportunity to achieve what almost none of his or her predecessors has managed to do: return Labour to power after one term.

11 comments

Medicine Man.'s picture

24-29 was also a brief term of opposition. Even the 31-45 assertion isn't quite right: there were Labour ministers under Churchill!

J Heywood's picture

Did Wilson never happen?

damianneum's picture

You're quite right, I meant to include Wilson, the exception that proves the rule. I've amended the post.

Red Shift's picture

You know it's really important to dress well. In the photo Miliband 1st born looks like a job centre officer, not a potential PM, does he want the job? Mili 2nd born, looks too buttoned up.

My advice: try and look more stylish, no need to go for the bling, but show some sartorial sophistication.

Rosie's picture

Is the role of government to conspire to keep an opposition party out at the taxpayers expense? Gerrymandering parliament and the boundaries is not going to endear them to people, I hear even the Tories are vehemently opposed to this and say that it smacks of fascism and dictatorships. With "call me Dave" marching around the globe upsetting other countries and now selling arms to India, he is looking every bit the fascist dictator he is. People are actually releasing this very quickly and generally people in this country do not like people like Cameron. Sooner or later the Lib Dems will fall in and realise what they are doing, or they will get rid of Clegg force Cameron to go it alone and his minority government will fall and I predict this before he has a chance to pull off the gerrymandering.
The man is an arse!

Rosie's picture

By the way the labour party already defied history by winning a landslide majority in 1997 and then again twice, giving them an 'historic' 3rd term.

Dave C's picture

If we're looking at the lessons from history, the current government is broadly analogous to Thatcher's of 1979. When the cuts and budget changes started, she was deeply unpopular as shown by the often dramatic loss of support in by-elections:

Southend East by-election (13 March 1980): -19.3%

Glasgow Central, 26 June 1980: -7.6%

Warrington, 16 July 1981: -21.7%

Croydon North West, 22 October 1981: -18.9%

Crosby, 26 November 1981: -17.1%

Glasgow Hillhead, 25 March 1982: -14.4%

Beaconsfield, 27 May 1982: +0.1%

It was the Falklands War that transformed her fortunes; she went from "pig-headed" to "staunch". The coalition is likely to be as unpopular as Thatcher, but I can't see that a short, popular war is going to come to their rescue.

B Ollocks's picture

I think this blog entry has been abandoned...

Steve's picture

@Rosie

I don't see anything unfair at all about reevaluating the number of people within electoral boundaries to reflect changes in population, the only problem with this is who decides where these changes are made. The electoral reform bill calls for the changes to be made according to history, local identity and geography, among others, so if these basic rules are followed appropriately then I don't see anything wrong with it at all.

I'm not sure with regard to union funding, it's a little akin to people establishing a 'welfare club' of some sort which funds whichever party hands out the most welfare. Stupid idea, but you get the point.

As for his 'upsetting other countries', it is not Mr Camerons job to pretend the world is a lovely place where everyone gets along. Indeed, in his position he is in the unenviable position of being the one who is supposed to make these assertations and bring problems to the forefront of global politics.

Freeman2's picture

'The party is more united than at any time in its history...' United around what? The real trouble will start when the new Blairite leader is in office and the bitterness of the disappointment with the wasted 13 years begins. (And please don't say minimum wage - unless you've tried living on it).

Medicine Man.'s picture

What about 70-74??

They were removed in 1970, and re-elected in 1974!

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