The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Will there be a Tory-Lib Dem pact at the next election?

The Tories and the Liberal Democrats may agree to support each other under the Alternative Vote.

By George Eaton Published 29 June 2010 16:59

As I wrote this morning, the main thing binding the Lib Dems to the Tories is the promise of a referendum on electoral reform. Should the referendum (expected in spring 2011) be won, the coalition has a decent chance of making it to 2015. But should it be lost, many figures in both parties will expect the coalition to fall apart.

We would then face the unusual prospect of two parties that have shared power for five years attempting to campaign against each other. Those who point out that the same thing happens across Europe are ignoring that, in most cases, the main parties indicate their coalition partner of choice in advance of the election.

Under the Alternative Vote, a system that encourages second-preference votes, the possibility of a Tory-Lib Dem pact will seem irresistible to some.

It is precisely this possibility that is floated by Daniel Finkelstein on his blog today. Citing the example of Australia, he suggests that such an arrangement would benefit the Lib Dems rather than Labour:

In Australia, says my friend, 90 per cent of voters follow the preference card issued by their party of choice. In other words, they order their preferences following the guidance of their first-preference choice.

He adds:

The coalition partners could eschew a formal pact, but agree to guide their voters to give each other second preferences. Thus they would run against each other but still in tandem.

Cameron's recent assertion that he views the coalition not as an alliance of convenience, but as a vehicle to realign British politics, suggests he may be open to this option.

The conservative case for AV has been made by few outside of Phillip Blond's ResPublica, but I'd expect this to change as the referendum draws closer. Others, like Boris Johnson, who recently declined an invitation to join Lynton Crosby's anti-AV campaign, have become agnostic about reform.

By 2015, if the economy is reviving and Clegg's programme of constitutional reform has been completed, there will be many who will not want the marriage to end there.

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9 comments

Tue, 2010-06-29 23:23 — praha7 (not verified)

I think the Lib/Dems will have such a big problem getting their core vote out in the next election that second preferences will not help.

Wed, 2010-06-30 02:39 — scotleag (not verified)

One thing I haven't seen mentioned anywhere is the format for the TV debates at the next election. Surely whoever is elected Labour leader must insist on it being a straight choice of Labour or Tory. These are classed as Prime Ministerial debates and the idea of the deputy PM taking part trying to claim he is separate from the government of the day is ludicrous.

Wed, 2010-06-30 04:51 — clem the gem (not verified)

To exclude the centre party from debate just because we dont like what they do looks incredibly childish.
We simply do not know how the referendum will pan out. We do know coalition plans to take about 150 MPs away from voters at the next election - and to merge constituencies in such a way as to erode Labour seats.
All those who believe in electoral reform must campaign for it, regardless of party advantage, but I would like to see Labour adopt AVplus as party policy whatever happens.

Wed, 2010-06-30 21:52 — swatantra nandanwar

No. Clegg will have joined the Tories and taken 10 with him. Burgess and Kennedd#y will have stayed with the rump of the Liberals and Cable will be the sole SDP standing.

Fri, 2010-07-02 11:00 — Jillian Morland-Duff (not verified)

As we know the "30 pieces of Silver" Party (many thanks Ms Jackson) will do anything for power, as they have already shown. Will the General Public even understand what they are voting for in this referendum or will it all be couched in such "politico-speak" as to be incomprehensible?

Tue, 2010-06-29 17:22 — Feminist (not verified)

"Should the referendum (expected in spring 2011) be lost, many figures in both parties expect the coalition to fall apart. But should it be won, the coalition has a decent chance of making it to 2015."

Given 95% of Tories will be campaigning against AV I think your analysis is poor.

Tue, 2010-06-29 18:06 — Emma Burnell (not verified)

Given all that we know about Lib Dems and political expediency, the answer to this will be purely based on whether the polls indicate whether Labour or Tories are ahead in the polls at crunch time. Nothing more, nothing less.

Tue, 2010-06-29 18:34 — 9xzulug

our nations situation at present is in limbo,firstly the coalition government could quite easily collapsed if their budget goes against them,secondly they both know full well they may not in the position they are in if we were to have AV(+)/leading eventually to PR.they are both playing on a sticky wicket,lets hope bad light don't stop play

Fri, 2010-07-02 18:14 — cgcenet

Lib Dems have not so far advised voters on where to place their 2nd votes in London Mayoral elections, and are unlikely to make any such recommendations for a general election. The party is well aware that its voters are split in terms of second-choice party, and therefore that to make any recommendation for lower preferences would be to risk losing a substantial share of its vote.