Roy Jenkins would never have settled for AV
Liberal icon warned that the Alternative Vote can prove even less proportional than first-past-the-post.
By George Eaton Published 11 May 2010 14:32
As I predicted they would, the Tories have now offered the Lib Dems a referendum on the Alternative Vote as part of a last-ditch effort to secure a coalition agreement.
With this in mind, it's worth looking back at the verdict of the Jenkins commission on electoral reform, led by the great liberal icon Roy Jenkins, on AV. The 1998 report said:
AV on its own suffers from a stark objection. It offers little prospect of a move towards greater proportionality, and in some circumstances, and those the ones which certainly prevailed at the last election and may well do so for at least the next one, it is even less proportional than FPTP. Simulations of how the 1997 result might have come out under AV suggest that it would have significantly increased the size of the already swollen Labour majority. A "best guess" projection of the shape of the current parliament under AV suggests on one highly reputable estimate the following outcome, with the actual FPTP figures given in brackets after the projected figures: Labour 452 (419), Conservative 96 (165), Liberal Democrats 82 (46), others 29 (29). The overall Labour majority could thus have risen from [179] to 245 . . .
Were we to rerun last week's election under AV, the result would not be quite so distorted. But the Lib Dems, who won 23 per cent of the vote, would still end up with just 12 per cent of the seats (79, up from 57). By contrast, under the Single Transferable Vote, the proportional system favoured by the party, they would win 162 seats.
It's hard to imagine Roy Jenkins would have accepted the Alternative Vote after decades of campaigning for electoral reform.
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10 comments
Up to a point.
1. You have to remember that the point of Jenkins AV+ is to deliver more proportionality, while keeping a tendency to majoritarian government (on 40%+). It would, by design, have given majority governments on a plurality of the vote at all of the post-war general elections except 1992. So Jenkins was not a PR purist: he advocated a trade-off of majoritarian and proportional principles.
2. Jenkins terms of reference were confined to the Commons system. If one is worried about "AV on its own" then one can have top-up seats and AV+ (which is fine with me). But one can also consider more coherently the overall constitutional framework: there are lots of ways to constrain plurality/majority power.
For example, you could directly elect a PM and then have a separate legislature. Or AV could give you a more pluralist majoritarian Commons, checked by a PR elected democratically legitimate revising chamber. In a citizens convention, this might (or might not) chime with the public as much or more than PR, since the public support PR as "fair votes" but contradictory majorities also favour the "clear choice of government" arguments for the current system. This may particularly be the case if the party system would seem to give us a "hinge party" under PR, which raises different questions of democratic legitimacy.
3. The disproportionality point is correct but much overdone. There is an important difference between AV and FPTP. AV can only exaggerate the victory of a generally popular party. FPTP can exaggerate victories of a much loathed party with good geographical concentration.
In 1997, 58% of people preferred a Labour government and 32% of people preferred a Tory government. That is why AV would have given Labour an enormous landslide. It is the most unusual election in terms of the Tory "pariah" status for all non-Tory voters.
Parties which suffer badly under AV are unelectable under FPTP and uncoalitionable under PR. The bounce for popular parties in landslides is a problem: again, one can look to top up seats, or to the second chamber, devolution, bill of rights, PR local government and other ways to constrain power which were not present in the 1980s.
4. All claims to be "re-running" elections under AV/PR should carry health warnings. We know that 10% of voters in 2005 said they had voted tactically, so you can't start with votes as first preferences at all. Others shape their opinions in response to the prevailing local conditions without considering that a tactical vote. We know that the LibDems consistently poll a much lower share in PR elections than FPTP. We don't know what would happen to the disproportional turnout issues, where large numbers of extra voters don't vote (perhaps rationally) in Labour safe seats.
Unless an exit poll AV ballot has taken place to get "real" first preferences, the projections aren't convincing. Just guessing second preferences from national polls doesn't do it. (Even then, the campaign would have been enormously different, with no discussion at all of tactical voting for example).
It's nice to see some informed discussion of AV vs. AV+ here. There is so much misinformation in the big British media.
My preference is for MMP (known in the British Isles as the "additional member system"), as New Zealand has wisely and successfully chosen. But sunderkatwala's perceptive observations above help me embrace AV as a more palatable first step towards PR democracy.
I should add, that as a general matter of democratic governance, it will be an absurd result if a referendum does not offer British voters a choice among several more-PR systems. Again, New Zealand is the model, and you have to be impressed that the kiwis overwhelmingly chose the most efficient and German system!
WELL GET AV WHICH IS A BUMMER BECOUSE IT JUST MAINTAINS THE TWO PARTY BINOPOLY ANYWAY . AS WAS SHOWEN UNDER AV THE LIBS STILL GET JUST 70 SEATS HAY THATS BETTER THAN JUST THE 14 SEATS THEY HAD NOT LONG AGO , MANY MORE WILL NOW SEE THE LIBS AS NOT A WASTED VOTE , YOU DIDENT MENTION THAT . THATS IF THE LIB DEMS SURVIVE A COALITION WITH THE TORIES AT ALL . THEY CAN KISS MANY SEATS GOOD BYE IN SCOTLAND NOW I THINK .THEY DID NOT VOTE LIB DEM TO PROP UP THE TORIES.AN GET A SECOND RATE SYESTEM OF p R VOTEING.
THE CONSERVITIVES AND THE LIB DEMS ITS A COALITION OF THE LOOSERS.
knowing cleggs torie party background i think there is much evidence to sumise the lib dems have been infiltrared bye the torie at the top . clegg never , never intended to go with anyone but labour . thats got to be obvious bye now . clegg brought over many tories to the libs after he himself left the conservitive party .to watch clegg an cam on tv SOME ONE TELL THEM THEY ARE MENT TO BE COALITION PARTNERS NOT LOOK LIKE A COUPLE OF LOVERS .
The idea of MMP, is from what I understand to be a similar model to the Scottish AMS system. Here we have 73 MSPs elected from constituencies, many of which are subdivisions of the Westminster seats. On top of that we have the 56 Additional MSPs, akin to the Jenkins "+" idea. They are elected on the old European Parliament seats in Scotland on the list. In Germany, I think it's a proportion of 50/50 with the list and constituency members. It is a great system in all honesty, in the 2003-2007 Parliament, we had what was called the Rainbow Parliament, it had the most Greens elected to a UK based legislature, the SSP was well represented as were smaller parties like the Scottish Senior Citizens Party and a number of Independents largely from the list vote and as such added a greater deal of depth and multitude of opinions with in the Chamber. All minor parties were able to improve the situations for groups they represented. The SSP managed to get concessions on School meals and the SSCP managed to do the same on free bus passes. Not a lot you might say but a clear step forward. Unfortunately that co-operative system, which the SNP were not a massive part of, was lost by Salmond's "victory" of 1 seat in a badly managed election. But even then the system, as in Germany and New Zealand has maintained stable coalitions, progressive policies and a modern Conservative party. Annabell Goldie's Tory party is a lot more palatable and forward in mindset to issues in Scotland than the Cameronian Tories, and it has been argued had she ran the Scottish aspect of the UK election more so then the Tories would have made more gains here.
The implications of the AMS in Westminster would be the best option. Not only would the much beloved 1 MP, 1 Constituency linked be preseved, and the boundary changes wanted by some adhered to, but there would be a proportional edge ensuring co-operation and mutual respect for each party than the more and more outdated confrontational system of Westminster. Most importantly though it would bring in smaller parties to the debate full time and be more likely to result in a throughly progressive movement in Parliament for all the UK between the Labour Party and the Lib-Dems and parties which as yet are not fully represented.
A LASTING LEGACY FROM NZ LABOUR PRIME MINISTER HELEN CLARK ALSO LIKE BLAIR ELECTED TO THREE TERMS IN A ROW , HER LEGACY WAS PARTY DICIPLINE , LAB MPS CAN ALL POINT THE FINGER AT EACH OTHER AND FIGHT EACH OTHER BUT REALY ITS POINTLESS . THE COALITIONS IN I DONT LIKE IT BECOUSE I BELEAVE THE TORIES HAVE INFILTRATED THE LIB DEMS . SOME EVIDENCE MR CLEGG HIMSELF , HIS BACK GROUND IS IN THE CONSERVITIVE PARTY , THE MAN BROUGHT MANY TORIES WITH HIM WHEN HE DEFECTED TO THE CONS . mr glegg and mr camron are more like they are in love not in coalition , . best thing for labour to do is elect a new leader a working class man would be good ? a good speaker , unite behind him and come out swinging . soon left wing dem mps will defect , i give it about 12 months before they begin to defect to the opposition .how sad the pm and deputy pm now are from the class of the privilidged few. THEY CAN BE HAMMERD ON CLEGGS SELL OUT ON PR , TAKE THE GREENS LEAD . TACTICALY LET MISS LUCUS LEAD THE FIGHT . BELEAVE ME THE GREENS ARE FAR MORE STABLE A PARTNER FOR LABOUR THAN THE LIB DEMS .THE GREENS AND LABOUE ARE NATURAL ALLIES IN NZ , AUSTRALIA , GERMANY , THEY DONT SIDE WITH THE TORIE BELEAVE ME .ITS IN LABOURS AND THE GREENS INTRESTS TO EXPLORE A COALITION EVEN IN OPPOSITION , I BET IT WOULD STEAL THE HEADLINES THATS FOR SURE .
It was characteristic of the old fraud to go quiet on electoral reform when FPTP worked to his advantage - If the imbecile Heath had not intervened to split the Tory vote, Jenkins would have lost the Oxford University Chancellorship election to Lord Blake.
The challenge of electoral reform is to devise a system which benefits the nice fringe parties, while not benefitting the nasties, such as UKIP and BNP.
@ Bernard: Got a chellspecker have you?
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