This was not the disaster for Labour that many feared

The party has not suffered a 1983-style wipeout.

With 46 seats left to declare, the Conservatives have conceded that there is now no chance of David Cameron emerging with an overall majority from this election. At best, the Tories hope to win roughly 310 seats, leaving them 16 short of a majority.

Labour must now do all it can to win over the Lib Dems, most obviously by offering Nick Clegg's party a referendum on proportional representation. Its attempt to do so has been helped by the fact that its losses have been nowhere near as severe as some feared.

As things stand, Labour has 241 seats. That's more than the party won in 1983 and 1987 and significantly more than the Tories won in 1997, 2001 and 2005. The electoral wipeout that some feared did not come to pass.

Meanwhile, although big names such as Charles Clarke, Jacqui Smith and Tony McNulty have fallen, not a single cabinet minister has lost his or her seat. Neither Alistair Darling nor Ed Balls provided the "Portillo moment" that so many hoped for.

Finally, after weeks of level-pegging with the Lib Dems in the opinion polls, Labour has reaffirmed its position as the dominant centre-left party. Clegg's claim that the election had turned into a "two-horse race" between the Tories and the Lib Dems now looks astonishingly hubristic.

The newly humbled Lib Dems may well be tempted to form a partnership of principle with Labour, rather than an alliance of convenience with the Tories. But Clegg's desire to avoid forming "an alliance of the defeated" is still likely to prove fatal for Brown.

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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