The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Tory lead cut to just 5 points in new YouGov poll

Tories just 5 points ahead of Labour as Lib Dems drop 4 points to 24 per cent.

By George Eaton Published 04 May 2010 21:16

Latest poll (YouGov/Sun): Labour 49 seats short of a majority.

The latest daily YouGov poll has just been published, and it's not good news for the Lib Dems. The poll puts Nick Clegg's party down 4 points to 24 per cent, its lowest figure in a YouGov poll since the first leaders' debate. Now, this could be a sign that the Lib Dem bubble has burst or, like the Ipsos MORI poll that put them on 23 per cent, it could just be an outlier.

We'll get a better idea when the latest ComRes/Independent poll is released later tonight, although, since their fieldwork is a day behind YouGov's, any decline in Lib Dem support may not be picked up.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives' lead over Labour has been cut to just 5 points. The poll has the Tories unchanged on 35 per cent, with Labour up 2 to 30 per cent. If repeated at the election on a uniform swing, those figures would leave Labour as the single largest party in parliament, 49 seats short of a majority.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

Hung parliament: Conservatives 53 seats short.

UPDATE: The latest ComRes poll has just been published and there's not much to report there. The Tories are unchanged on 37 per cent, Labour is unchanged on 29 per cent and the Lib Dems are, you guessed it, unchanged on 26 per cent.

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Tags: Election 2010 Polls Guide

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View the discussion thread.

15 comments

Wed, 2010-05-05 17:44 — Daph (not verified)

Vote Labour? yes! Only Brown in this campaign trail has been explaining with clarity the Labour policy. Cameron? Clegg? Promise, promise and promise without clarity. How can one feel secure about these two fulfilling their promises? I could easily end up with Greece on Friday if I change my mind.

Tue, 2010-05-04 21:46 — velmabeeso

In other news the BBC are at it again with their bias - willing Cameron to win.

I look on the BBC website and I see they give this publicity seeking nutter with an axe to grind, Manish Sood prominence but try to hide a negative Cameron story under the title 'Cameron backs hopeful Stroud':
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/default.stm
Earlier in the day the main headline was 'Brown: I will take responsibility' implying the Labour on course to losing. Another headline the other day was 'girl breaks down in tear in front of Brown'. As if Brown made her cry.

Why don't more people complain about this bias on the BBC website?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/complaints/homepage/
https://www.ofcom.org.uk/complain/progs/specific/?itemid=286480

Just reading the Radio Times interview with Cameron this week and he says he is a regular visitor to the BBC News website.
The way the BBC News election site is so blatantly biased every time I visit leads me to believe he has contact with the webmaster.
The 'MOST POPULAR ELECTION STORIES NOW' is probably fixed too. I wouldn't be surprised. Having read Peter Hitchens views:
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2010/04/a-media-election-not-a-ge...
I am beginning to see how right he is. whether it is deliberate or sinister I don't know. But one thing is for certain it aint fair.

Wed, 2010-05-05 09:59 — dominik44

I am surprised at Beep--please remain impartial

Tue, 2010-05-04 22:49 — Graeme (not verified)

I will be voting Labour. It there is any chance of a Tory being elected in this area, I could not risk voting Lib Dem. My intention has changed in the last day - which surprises myself.

Tue, 2010-05-04 22:53 — davidk1

Interesting survey results in tomorrows Sun to the following questions:

"Which of the following would you most like to see after the next general election?"

A Conservative government, ruling on its own - 27%

A Labour government, ruling on its own - 22%

A Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition - 12%

A Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition - 17%

A 'grand' coalition with all three main parties ruling together - 10%

Don't know -12%

"Suppose a Conservative Government were formed under Mr Cameron. Which of these statements comes closest to your own view?"

I would be delighted - 23%

I would be dismayed - 46%

I wouldn't mind - 23%

Don't know - 7%

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/election2010/2959079/Suns-dail...

Tue, 2010-05-04 23:02 — jason (not verified)

Graeme_what seat are you in.

Electoral reform to AVS will never pass with another five years of labour.

I don't see voters looking to help the party that has been in power in their fourth term with AVS voting reform.

Tue, 2010-05-04 23:03 — jason (not verified)

What area is it. Brown is surging in scotland and now is higher than in 2005.

Some areas in three way seats labour was ahead last time but lib dems have the better chance to keep the tories out.

Please tell me what seat you are talking about.

Tue, 2010-05-04 23:05 — jason (not verified)

To Gramae:

Tories have zero chance at a hung parliament they are polling in the mid to low 30's and would've needed to be in the low 40's.

This is a labour scare tactics to not support the lib dems.

There is no chance for the tories gaining power so please support yoru heart and not be influenced by labour's scaremongering and lies.

Last poll has labour as the largest party in the hung parliament.

It is better to have lib dems as a check against labour in a hung parliament than a labour majority.

Lib dems can use their progressive influence in a hung parliament.

Tue, 2010-05-04 23:09 — jason (not verified)

Voting labour to have gary mckinnon sent to u.s.

Voting labour to have uk troops extended in afghanistan in helmand province further or moved to

Voting Labour as they allowed u.s shipments of weapons to israel during the lebanon war and using scotland airport and brown didn't say a thing.

Voting Labour as Blair once again bashes lib dems.

Voting labour to keep arm sales to israel.

Voting Labour because politics is so tribal like the soviet union. No matter what labour does you have to vote labour.

Vote labour to block iraq war minutes.

Vote Labour for ID cards.

Just remember whatever you do make sure you put mandelson, campbell back in power. Maybe blair with brown's support can lead the EU in two and a half years.

Wed, 2010-05-05 01:25 — Peter Jackson (not verified)

Auntie Beeb turning Tory! I thought I'd heard it all. I thought it was full of insufferable, self-important, self-serving, pinko commies (i.e. natural labour voters). Maybe it is TIME FOR CHANGE!

Wed, 2010-05-05 10:27 — Helen5

Hrris/Metro poll has the Tories 10 points ahead of Labour, which is out of hung parliament territory. It depends which poll you use. You are being selective to spin the story that suits your narrative.

Wed, 2010-05-05 10:51 — Tom (not verified)

BBc bias - no just running scared of what the Tories will do. Michael Gove on radio 4 was quite threatening to John Humphreys, saying he wasn't being impartial by pointing out the huge flaws and lies in Gove's arguments.

Wed, 2010-05-05 11:32 — mittfh

The latest BBC Poll of Polls (which takes the median values from all polls over the past five days) is: C 35%, L 29%, D 27%; which would translate in seats as C 270, L 272, D 79.

Wed, 2010-05-05 13:48 — Reginald-Fah-fah

How marvellous! David Cameron for Prime Minister!!!!

Wed, 2010-05-05 09:45 — Stephen Kennedy (not verified)

As a working class voter, I subscribe to the A B C of voting....Anyone But Cameron!!! The idea of Tory Toffs running amok, slashing & burning their way to a second Thatcherite revolution does not appeal. Yes New Labour have largely been a disappointment (The war in Iraq will shame Labour for 100 years.) For all that, they still remain closer to 'Labour' than anyone else. I just wish they would look after Hi~Vis man instead of chasing Mondeo Man.