Will Jon Cruddas enter the race for London mayor?

Pressure grows on the campaigning MP to join the contest.

Labour's mayoral hopefuls have just a few weeks left to put their name forward (the deadline is 18 June) and we're starting to get a clearer picture of who the main contenders will be.

Ken Livingstone and Oona King have already entered the race and there is growing speculation that David Lammy is about to do the same. The Tottenham MP has a long-standing interest in the position, and in an Evening Standard column last year he notably proposed that Labour hold an open primary to select candidates. Alan Johnson, as my colleague Jon Bernstein has previously noted, is another figure rumoured to be keen to take on his namesake, Boris Johnson.

But the Labour politician who many are desperate to see run is Jon Cruddas. It's not hard to see why. Cruddas is an exceptional campaigner with high levels of support among Labour members and the non-aligned left. As someone with an excellent record on working-class and ethnic-minority issues, he is ideally placed to run the capital.

But my instinct is that he will not run, for much the same reasons that he didn't enter the Labour leadership election. An unusually thoughtful and independent-minded politician, Cruddas is keenly aware of the constraints that leadership imposes. This grass-roots campaigner would feel marooned in City Hall.

I doubt this will prevent his many supporters urging him to run right up to the deadline for nominations. Sunny Hundal has just created a Facebook group calling on him to stand for the job.

Whatever the outcome of the nominations process, we will know the winner by 22 September, the day before the next Labour leader is revealed.

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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How Theresa May laid a trap for herself on the immigration target

When Home Secretary, she insisted on keeping foreign students in the figures – causing a headache for herself today.

When Home Secretary, Theresa May insisted that foreign students should continue to be counted in the overall immigration figures. Some cabinet colleagues, including then Business Secretary Vince Cable and Chancellor George Osborne wanted to reverse this. It was economically illiterate. Current ministers, like the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Chancellor Philip Hammond and Home Secretary Amber Rudd, also want foreign students exempted from the total.

David Cameron’s government aimed to cut immigration figures – including overseas students in that aim meant trying to limit one of the UK’s crucial financial resources. They are worth £25bn to the UK economy, and their fees make up 14 per cent of total university income. And the impact is not just financial – welcoming foreign students is diplomatically and culturally key to Britain’s reputation and its relationship with the rest of the world too. Even more important now Brexit is on its way.

But they stayed in the figures – a situation that, along with counterproductive visa restrictions also introduced by May’s old department, put a lot of foreign students off studying here. For example, there has been a 44 per cent decrease in the number of Indian students coming to Britain to study in the last five years.

Now May’s stubbornness on the migration figures appears to have caught up with her. The Times has revealed that the Prime Minister is ready to “soften her longstanding opposition to taking foreign students out of immigration totals”. It reports that she will offer to change the way the numbers are calculated.

Why the u-turn? No 10 says the concession is to ensure the Higher and Research Bill, key university legislation, can pass due to a Lords amendment urging the government not to count students as “long-term migrants” for “public policy purposes”.

But it will also be a factor in May’s manifesto pledge (and continuation of Cameron’s promise) to cut immigration to the “tens of thousands”. Until today, ministers had been unclear about whether this would be in the manifesto.

Now her u-turn on student figures is being seized upon by opposition parties as “massaging” the migration figures to meet her target. An accusation for which May only has herself, and her steadfast politicising of immigration, to blame.

Anoosh Chakelian is senior writer at the New Statesman.

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