Will Labour shun the front-runner for once?

David Miliband would be the first leading candidate to miss out on the leadership since Denis Healey

It's worth noting that, should David Miliband fail to become Labour leader, he would be the first front-runner not to win the crown since Denis Healey lost to Michael Foot in 1980. The party opted for the odds-on favourite at each of the past three Labour leadership elections, while in 2007, of course, Gordon Brown was so widely supported that it didn't bother to have one.

In 1983, Neil Kinnock, who endorsed Ed Miliband at the weekend, easily saw off his rivals, winning 71.3 per cent of the vote, with Roy Hattersley trailing on 19.3 per cent, Eric Heffer on 6.3 per cent and Peter Shore on 3.2 per cent.

In 1992, John Smith demolished Bryan Gould, securing 91 per cent of the vote to Gould's 9 per cent. And in 1994, after striking a deal with Gordon Brown, Tony Blair had little trouble defeating Margaret Beckett and John Prescott. The future prime minister won 57 per cent of the vote to Prescott's 24.1 per cent and Beckett's 18.9 per cent.

By contrast, the Tories have often opted for insurgent candidates, disastrously so in the case of William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith, and more successfully in the case of David Cameron.

I think we can say with some certainty that the next Labour leader will be named Miliband, but otherwise there's a welcome element of uncertainty to this contest, the most competitive for 30 years.

Here are the latest odds from Betfair:

David Miliband 4/5

Ed Miliband 3/1

Andy Burnham 10/1

Ed Balls 12/1

Diane Abbott 43/1

John McDonnell 549/1

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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The NS Podcast #222: Queen's Speech Special

The New Statesman podcast.

Helen and Stephen discuss what was left out, watered down and generally squished around in the Queen's Speech - from prison reform to fox hunting - and what kind of stage it sets for the coming parliamentary term. Will Labour's stance on immigration have to change? And what Brexit deal could secure a parliamentary majority? Clue: it's a royal mess.

Quotes of the episode:

Helen on domestic violence: "The big lesson of the last couple of weeks is that the involvement of domestic violence in Terror has finally made (slightly more men) take it slightly more seriously. As actually now it becomes part of an anti-radicalisation process."

Stephen on Conservative strategy: "If you look at the back end of the Conservative government in the 90s: when your parliamentary situation is rocky, the best way of dealing with that is just for parliamentary not to sit all that much. Don't bring the pain."

Helen on Brexit: "There is an interesting complacency about the dominance and attractiveness of the British economy [...] whereas actually our economy has recovered quite badly and our productivity is still quite low. I wouldn't be that smug about the British economy."

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