Will Bercow still face a challenge in parliament?

He beat Farage but can he see off the Tory right?

John Bercow may have easily fought off Nigel Farage in Buckingham (he did have the safest Conservative seat in the country, after all) but it looks like he may yet face a challenge in Westminster.

The Conservative MP Nadine Dorries, an implacable opponent of Bercow, is said to be prepared to challenge his re-election as Speaker -- and it only takes one objection to trigger a formal vote.

As my colleage James Macintyre reported in his account of the right-wing plot against Bercow, Dorries has previously stated:

I for one will be studying the procedure to call a Speaker re-election . . . and will have [it] engrained on my heart [sic] ready to go when the Conservative Party take power.

I like to think that opposition MPs and the Lib Dems would prevent the unprecedented removal of a second Speaker, but should he fall, two possible replacements are under active discussion: Ming Campbell and Edward Leigh.

Leigh, the president of the 40-strong Cornerstone Group, was spotlighted by us earlier this year as one of the "ten people Dave should fear" and has long been touted by the right as an alternative Speaker. Ming, meanwhile, would be the first Liberal speaker since the Coalition Liberal John Henry Whitley, who held the post from 1921-28.

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Labour's dilemma: which voters should it try to add to its 2017 coalition?

Should the party try to win over 2017 Conservatives, or people who didn't vote?

Momentum’s latest political advert is causing a splash on the left and the right.

One of the underreported trends of 2016 was that British political parties learnt how to make high-quality videos at low-cost, and Momentum have been right at the front of that trend.

This advert is no exception: an attack that captures and defines its target and hits it expertly. The big difference is that this video doesn't attack the Conservative Party – it attacks people who voted for the Conservative Party.

Although this is unusual in political advertising, it is fairly common in regular advertising. The reason why so many supermarket adverts tend to feature a feckless dad, an annoying clutch of children and a switched-on mother is that these companies believe that their target customer is not the feckless father or the children, but the mother.

The British electorate could, similarly, be thought of as a family. What happened at the last election is that Labour won votes of the mum, who flipped from Conservative to Labour, got two of the children to vote for the first time (but the third stayed home), but fell short because the dad, three of the grandparents, and an aunt backed the Conservatives. (The fourth, disgusted by the dementia tax, decided to stay at home.)

So the question for the party is how do they do better next time. Do they try to flip the votes of Dad and the grandparents? Or do they focus on turning out that third child?

What Momentum are doing in this video is reinforcing the opinions of the voters Labour got last time by mocking the comments they’ll hear round the dinner table when they go to visit their parents and grandparents. Their hope is that this gets that third child out and voting next time. For a bonus, perhaps that aunt will sympathise with the fact her nieces and nephews, working in the same job, in the same town, cannot hope to get on the housing ladder as she did and will switch her vote from Tory to Labour. 

(This is why, if, as Toby Young and Dan Hodges do, you see the video as “attacking Labour voters”, you haven’t quite got the target of the advert or who exactly voted Labour last time.)

That could be how messages like this work for Labour at the next election. But the risk is that Mum decides she quite likes Dad and switches back to the Conservatives – or  that the second child is turned off by the negativity. And don’t forget the lingering threat that now the dementia tax is dead and gone, all four grandparents will turn out for the Conservatives next time. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.