The Lib Dem bubble hasn't burst

Latest polls put Lib Dems ahead of Labour and show little decline in support.

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1272145532250

Latest poll (YouGov/Sunday Times) Conservatives 43 seats short of a majority.

There are no fewer than six new opinion polls out today, most of which show the Conservatives' lead beginning to recover.

The latest Ipsos MORI/News of the World poll will undoubtedly attract the most attention. It puts the Tories up four points to 36 per cent, Labour up two to 30 per cent and the Lib Dems down nine to a pre-debate level of 23 per cent. But since none of the remaining five show a similar decline in Lib Dem support, I think it's safe to assume this is a rogue poll (around one in twenty are).

Elsewhere, the YouGov daily tracker has the Tories on 35 per cent (+1), the Lib Dems on 28 per cent (-1) and Labour on 27 per cent (-2). If repeated on a uniform swing at the election, the figures would leave David Cameron 43 seats short of a majority in a hung parliament.

It's worth noting that after reaching a peak of 34 per cent last week, the Lib Dems' share of the vote has settled at around 28-29. This is still unusually high, but it does suggest that the surge may have peaked.

Meanwhile, the latest ComRes survey for the Sunday Mirror and the Independent on Sunday shows the Conservative lead falling back to five points after two earlier polls put it at eight-nine points. The poll puts the Tories down one to 34 per cent, the Lib Dems up two 29 per cent and Labour up three to 28 per cent.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

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Hung parliament, Conservatives 54 seats short.

Like ComRes, the latest ICM/Sunday Telegraph poll also suggests support for the Lib Dems remains healthy, with Clegg's party up one to 31 per cent. The Tories are on 35 per cent (+2) and Labour on 26 per cent (-2). On a uniform swing, the figures would leave Cameron 50 seats short of an overall majority.

There is also a new BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday which has topline figures of Con 34 per cent (+3), Lib Dems 30 per cent (-2) and Lab 26 per cent (-2). Finally, a OnePoll survey for the People has the Tories on 32 per cent, the Lib Dems also 32 per cent and Labour on just 23 per cent. But it's currently unclear whether the company uses proper weighting, so I'm leaving it out of our Poll of Polls for now.

Overall, it looks the right-wing smears against Nick Clegg have failed to dent Lib Dem support and that his party is still set for a record-breaking performance at the election. Meanwhile, several of the polls suggest that the extraordinary possibility of Labour falling into third place at the election cannot be ignored.

In the case of the Tories, a significant amount of progress is needed in the remaining two weeks if they are to prevent Britain's first hung parliament since 1974.


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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Like it or hate it, it doesn't matter: Brexit is happening, and we've got to make a success of it

It's time to stop complaining and start campaigning, says Stella Creasy.

A shortage of Marmite, arguments over exporting jam and angry Belgians. And that’s just this month.  As the Canadian trade deal stalls, and the government decides which cottage industry its will pick next as saviour for the nation, the British people are still no clearer getting an answer to what Brexit actually means. And they are also no clearer as to how they can have a say in how that question is answered.

To date there have been three stages to Brexit. The first was ideological: an ever-rising euroscepticism, rooted in a feeling that the costs the compromises working with others require were not comparable to the benefits. It oozed out, almost unnoticed, from its dormant home deep in the Labour left and the Tory right, stoked by Ukip to devastating effect.

The second stage was the campaign of that referendum itself: a focus on immigration over-riding a wider debate about free trade, and underpinned by the tempting and vague claim that, in an unstable, unfair world, control could be taken back. With any deal dependent on the agreement of twenty eight other countries, it has already proved a hollow victory.

For the last few months, these consequences of these two stages have dominated discussion, generating heat, but not light about what happens next. Neither has anything helped to bring back together those who feel their lives are increasingly at the mercy of a political and economic elite and those who fear Britain is retreating from being a world leader to a back water.

Little wonder the analogy most commonly and easily reached for by commentators has been that of a divorce. They speculate our coming separation from our EU partners is going to be messy, combative and rancorous. Trash talk from some - including those in charge of negotiating -  further feeds this perception. That’s why it is time for all sides to push onto Brexit part three: the practical stage. How and when is it actually going to happen?

A more constructive framework to use than marriage is one of a changing business, rather than a changing relationship. Whatever the solid economic benefits of EU membership, the British people decided the social and democratic costs had become too great. So now we must adapt.

Brexit should be as much about innovating in what we make and create as it is about seeking to renew our trading deals with the world. New products must be sought alongside new markets. This doesn’t have to mean cutting corners or cutting jobs, but it does mean being prepared to learn new skills and invest in helping those in industries that are struggling to make this leap to move on. The UK has an incredible and varied set of services and products to offer the world, but will need to focus on what we do well and uniquely here to thrive. This is easier said than done, but can also offer hope. Specialising and skilling up also means we can resist those who want us to jettison hard-won environmental and social protections as an alternative. 

Most accept such a transition will take time. But what is contested is that it will require openness. However, handing the public a done deal - however well mediated - will do little to address the division within our country. Ensuring the best deal in a way that can garner the public support it needs to work requires strong feedback channels. That is why transparency about the government's plans for Brexit is so important. Of course, a balance needs to be struck with the need to protect negotiating positions, but scrutiny by parliament- and by extension the public- will be vital. With so many differing factors at stake and choices to be made, MPs have to be able and willing to bring their constituents into the discussion not just about what Brexit actually entails, but also what kind of country Britain will be during and after the result - and their role in making it happen. 

Those who want to claim the engagement of parliament and the public undermines the referendum result are still in stages one and two of this debate, looking for someone to blame for past injustices, not building a better future for all. Our Marmite may be safe for the moment, but Brexit can’t remain a love it or hate it phenomenon. It’s time for everyone to get practical.