Lib Dems back in first place in new YouGov poll

Lib Dems up to 34 per cent in new poll, three points ahead of the Tories.

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1271791628967

Latest poll (Sun/YouGov) Labour 60 seats short of a majority.

The latest daily YouGov poll has just been published and it's more good news for Nick Clegg. The poll puts the Lib Dems up three points to 34 per cent, their best score ever with YouGov, and back in front of the Conservatives. The Tories are down two to 31 per cent and Labour is down one to 26 per cent.

If repeated at the election on a uniform swing, the figures would again leave Labour as the largest single party, 60 seats short of a majority.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1271797351269

Hung parliament, Labour 73 seats short.

Elsewhere, a new PoliticalBetting/Angus Reid survey also has the Lib Dems regaining the top spot. The poll puts Clegg's party up one to 33 per cent, with the Tories unchanged on 32 per cent and Labour down one to just 23 per cent.

Finally, the latest Times/Populus poll (written up by the sage Peter Riddell here), the first since the TV debate, puts the Lib Dems up 10 points to 31 per cent, a point behind the Tories who are down four to 32 per cent. Labour is down five to 28 per cent.

We're still expecting a new ComRes poll later tonight, which Andrew Hawkins has promised is a "humdinger".

UPDATE: The ComRes poll has just been released and it should settle a few nerves in CCHQ The poll puts the Tories up three points to 35 per cent, with Labour down two to 26 per cent and the Lib Dems also down two to 26 per cent.

But it's worth noting that the fieldwork for the poll took place on Sunday and Monday, so it's a day older than the other three out tonight. If the Lib Dem poll surge really had ended, I expect we would have seen evidence of it in those polls tonight.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty Images
Show Hide image

Autumn Statement 2015: whatever you hear, don't forget - there is an alternative

The goverment's programme of cuts is a choice, not a certainty, says Jolyon Maugham.

Later today you will hear George Osborne say there is no alternative to his plan to slash a further £20bn from lean public services by 2020-21. He will also say that there is no alternative to £9bn cuts to tax credits, cuts that will hit the poorest hardest, cuts of thousands of pounds per annum to the incomes of millions of households.

But there is.

As I outlined here the Conservatives plan future tax cuts which benefit, disproportionately or exclusively, the wealthy. Suspending those future tax cuts for the wealthy would say, by 2020-21, £9.3bn per annum.

I also explained here that a mere 50 of our 1,156 tax reliefs cost us over £100bn per annum. We don't know how much the other 1,106 reliefs cost us - because Government doesn't monitor them. And we don't know what public benefit they deliver - because Government doesn't check.

What we do know, as I explained here, is that they disproportionately and regressively benefit the wealthy: an average of £190,400 per annum for the wealthiest.

And we know, too, that they include (amongst the more than 1,000 uncosted reliefs) the £1bn plus “Rights for Shares Scheme” - badged by the Chancellor as for workers but identified by a leading law firm as designed for the wealthiest.

Simply by asking a question that the Chancellor chooses to ignore - do these 1,156 reliefs deliver value for money - it is entirely possible that £10bn or more extra in taxes could be collected without any loss of  public benefit

To this £19bn, we might add the indiscriminate provision - both direct and indirect - of public money to wealthy pensioners.

Those above basic state pension age enjoy a tax subsidy of up to 12% on earned income.

Moreover, this Office for National Statistics data (see Table 18) reveals that the 10% of wealthiest retired households - some 714,000 households - have gross pre-tax and pre-benefit private income of on average £43,983. Yet still they enjoy average cash benefits from government of £11,500 per annum.

Means testing benefits to exclude that top 10 per cent of retired households would save £8.2bn per annum. And why, you might wonder aloud, should means testing be thought by the government appropriate for the working age population, yet a heresy for retired households?

Add in abolition of that unprincipled tax subsidy and you'll save even more. 

So there are alternatives. Clear alternatives. Good alternatives. Alternatives that enable those with the broadest shoulders to bear some share of the pain. Don't allow yourself to be persuaded otherwise.

Jolyon Maugham is a barrister who advised Ed Miliband on tax policy. He blogs at Waiting for Tax, and writes for the NS on tax and legal issues.