Which Tories and Lib Dems could lose their seats?

Chris Huhne is vulnerable to a Tory challenge.

I've previously looked at the cabinet ministers who could provide this election's "Portillo moment", but which Tories and Lib Dems are under threat?

Few on the Tory front bench need fear for their seats, but several are still vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats. Oliver Letwin, the Tories' policy director, will have to watch his back in West Dorset, where he is defending a notional majority of 2,461.

Elsewhere, David Mundell, the Tory shadow Scottish secretary and the party's only Scottish MP, enters the campaign with a majority of just 1,738 in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale. He will be challenged by Labour, which held the seat until 2001.

Others who will be campaigning hard include the shadow culture secretary, Jeremy Hunt, who is defending a notional majority of 5,981 in Surrey South-West, and Theresa Villiers, who holds a notional majority of 5,556 in Chipping Barnet.

But it's the Lib Dems who have most to worry about on polling day. Chris Huhne, the party's home affairs spokesman and runner-up to Nick Clegg in the last leadership election, is defending a notional majority of just 530 in Eastleigh and is number 11 on the Tory target list.

Meanwhile, owing to boundary changes, Sarah Teather's Brent East seat no longer exists. She now hopes to unseat the Labour MP Dawn Butler in Brent Central but will have to overturn a majority of 6,608.

Others who could be swept away by a large Tory swing include Tim Farron, the party's environment spokesman, who has a notional majority of 846 in Westmorland and Lonsdale (267 under the old boundaries), and David Heath, MP for Somerton and Frome, whose seat is now notionally held by the Tories.

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

#Match4Lara
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#Match4Lara: Lara has found her match, but the search for mixed-race donors isn't over

A UK blood cancer charity has seen an "unprecedented spike" in donors from mixed race and ethnic minority backgrounds since the campaign started. 

Lara Casalotti, the 24-year-old known round the world for her family's race to find her a stem cell donor, has found her match. As long as all goes ahead as planned, she will undergo a transplant in March.

Casalotti was diagnosed with acute myeloid leukaemia in December, and doctors predicted that she would need a stem cell transplant by April. As I wrote a few weeks ago, her Thai-Italian heritage was a stumbling block, both thanks to biology (successful donors tend to fit your racial profile), and the fact that mixed-race people only make up around 3 per cent of international stem cell registries. The number of non-mixed minorities is also relatively low. 

That's why Casalotti's family launched a high profile campaign in the US, Thailand, Italy and the US to encourage more people - especially those from mixed or minority backgrounds - to register. It worked: the family estimates that upwards of 20,000 people have signed up through the campaign in less than a month.

Anthony Nolan, the blood cancer charity, also reported an "unprecedented spike" of donors from black, Asian, ethcnic minority or mixed race backgrounds. At certain points in the campaign over half of those signing up were from these groups, the highest proportion ever seen by the charity. 

Interestingly, it's not particularly likely that the campaign found Casalotti her match. Patient confidentiality regulations protect the nationality and identity of the donor, but Emily Rosselli from Anthony Nolan tells me that most patients don't find their donors through individual campaigns: 

 It’s usually unlikely that an individual finds their own match through their own campaign purely because there are tens of thousands of tissue types out there and hundreds of people around the world joining donor registers every day (which currently stand at 26 million).

Though we can't know for sure, it's more likely that Casalotti's campaign will help scores of people from these backgrounds in future, as it has (and may continue to) increased donations from much-needed groups. To that end, the Match4Lara campaign is continuing: the family has said that drives and events over the next few weeks will go ahead. 

You can sign up to the registry in your country via the Match4Lara website here.

Barbara Speed is a technology and digital culture writer at the New Statesman and a staff writer at CityMetric.