Election 2010 Lookahead: Monday 19 April

The who, when and where of the campaign.

With another 17 days to go in this election campaign, here is what is happening today:

Labour

All Labour cabinet ministers have been recalled to London for an emergency Cobra meeting on the ongoing air chaos. That meeting aside, Health Secretary Andy Burnham is expected to address the Unison health conference (2pm).

Conservatives

The party unveils its manifesto for Scotland today. Meanwhile, Shadow Foreign Secretary William Hague goes up against his counterparts Foreign Secretary David Miliband and Liberal Democrat spokesman Ed Davey in the first The Daily Politics election debates (BBC1, 2.15pm).

Liberal Democrats

Nick Clegg hosts his party's morning press conference in London. Clegg is promising more investment in green jobs and technology.

The media

Radio 4's Today programme "empty chaired" senior Tories this morning after requests for an interview after a difficult weekend for the party were turned down. ConservativeHome's Tim Montgomerie was the stand-in. Later, New Statesman columnist Mike Smithson takes part in a Daily Politics Election Special (BBC2, 11.30am) to explain what the rise of the Lib Dems in the opinion polls (and the betting markets) means. And the repeat of Thursday night's Have I Got News For You (BBC2, 10pm) is worth a watch. Originally broadcast directly against the first leaders' debates, the jokes feel instantly out-dated.

Other parties

Not another party as such, but a campaign for a different kind of politics. Vote for Change is constructing a giant gallows from which an effigy of the Palace of Westminster will be hung. It is, you guessed it, all part of its campaign to achieve a hung parliament on 6 May.

Away from the campaign

Apparently it's International TV Turn-Off Week. Organised by "White Dot", the campaign against television has come at a bad time for Sky News which is hosting the second leaders' debate this Thursday (Sky News, 8pm). Assuming people take up the campaign's cause.

 

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Can Philip Hammond save the Conservatives from public anger at their DUP deal?

The Chancellor has the wriggle room to get close to the DUP's spending increase – but emotion matters more than facts in politics.

The magic money tree exists, and it is growing in Northern Ireland. That’s the attack line that Labour will throw at Theresa May in the wake of her £1bn deal with the DUP to keep her party in office.

It’s worth noting that while £1bn is a big deal in terms of Northern Ireland’s budget – just a touch under £10bn in 2016/17 – as far as the total expenditure of the British government goes, it’s peanuts.

The British government spent £778bn last year – we’re talking about spending an amount of money in Northern Ireland over the course of two years that the NHS loses in pen theft over the course of one in England. To match the increase in relative terms, you’d be looking at a £35bn increase in spending.

But, of course, political arguments are about gut instinct rather than actual numbers. The perception that the streets of Antrim are being paved by gold while the public realm in England, Scotland and Wales falls into disrepair is a real danger to the Conservatives.

But the good news for them is that last year Philip Hammond tweaked his targets to give himself greater headroom in case of a Brexit shock. Now the Tories have experienced a shock of a different kind – a Corbyn shock. That shock was partly due to the Labour leader’s good campaign and May’s bad campaign, but it was also powered by anger at cuts to schools and anger among NHS workers at Jeremy Hunt’s stewardship of the NHS. Conservative MPs have already made it clear to May that the party must not go to the country again while defending cuts to school spending.

Hammond can get to slightly under that £35bn and still stick to his targets. That will mean that the DUP still get to rave about their higher-than-average increase, while avoiding another election in which cuts to schools are front-and-centre. But whether that deprives Labour of their “cuts for you, but not for them” attack line is another question entirely. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.

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