Hat-tip to Sunder Katwala for spotting this fascinating insight from today’s Times:
It is a notable feature of the television debates that Mr Cameron’s likeability figures have fallen after every debate. While 53 per cent of people thought the Tory leader likeable before the debates began, 45 per cent did so after the first event and that figure dropped to 38 per cent after Thursday’s clash.
The polls have been unkind to Gordon Brown too in recent weeks but any more of this and the Tories will have lost one of their key electoral assets: David Cameron’s “X-factor”. Indeed, it may already be lost.
Writing for the New Statesman ealier this month YouGov president Peter Kellner outlined a laundry list of things that needed to go Labour’s way in order to overhaul the Tory poll lead. Among them:
Brown must improve his personal ratings to close the gap further with Cameron. Already he has made considerable progress. Last summer the Prime Minister’s personal rating was -50 (23 per cent thought he was doing well, 73 per cent thought he was doing badly); Cameron’s rating was +25 (58 per cent well, 33 per cent badly).
The gap started to narrow significantly in the spring, down to 38 in a pre-campaign YouGov survey. But Kellner also warned of the “unknown unknown”. So far that has come in the shape of Nick Clegg’s first TV debate performance.
And while the rise of Clegg has undoubtedly hit Cameron hard, Brown has suffered too. Now the PM needs to take advantage of Cameron’s falling personal popularity to get back into the game. Unless, of course, he’s happy to regain some form of power by finishing third.
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