The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Brown’s admission of defeat will cost him

Voters like to back a winner. It was foolish of Brown to predict a Tory victory.

By George Eaton Published 30 April 2010 10:38

The most telling moment in last night's debate came when Gordon Brown conceded:

I know that if things stay as they are, perhaps in eight days' time David Cameron, perhaps supported by Nick Clegg, would be in office.

This was probably intended to alarm voters (the man who would wreck the economy and slash public services could soon be prime minister), but it sounded like an admission of defeat.

It was also a remarkably ill-judged statement. Like Rupert Murdoch, voters like to back a winner. By admitting that Cameron is set to enter Downing Street on 7 May, Brown has made it all the more likely that he will.

Few voters pay close attention to the opinion polls, but the idea that Cameron is leading a government-in-waiting was in effect endorsed by Brown.

Even the most amateur politician knows to stick to the line that: "There's only one poll that counts, and that's on election day." Brown's decision to break with form and prejudge the outcome of the election must have had Labour strategists hanging their heads in despair.

It's far from unthinkable that Labour could rally and, due to the vagaries of the voting system, emerge as the single largest party. But last night Brown made that outcome all the more unlikely.

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Tags: Election 2010 TV Debates Election 2010

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21 comments

Fri, 2010-04-30 13:07 — Karyobin. (not verified)

Ok, ok, im a troll. I have a small home and insecure job, but i know the Tories will talk a lot about immigration and stoke my fear of crime. That's what i want to hear, and lack the skills to formulate any deeper understanding of the world.

Fri, 2010-04-30 13:30 — Karyobin (not verified)

@Karyobin. (note the '.')

Awww...no fair!

Tell you one thing though, if you can't hink of your own name, you're clearly not one to lead in terms of formulating an argument, are you?

(BTW, your little 'Cracker' bit there, not even close dearie. Can I have a go? Poor grammar and habitual lower-case 'i' suggests lack of pride in communication skills. 'deeper understanding of the world'. 'the world'? - a bit tenuous isn't it - I'd have written something more specific, it makes you seem as though even though you wrote it you don't really believe it. 'stoke my fear of crime' - classic New Labourism. These three would suggest that you're probably between 18 and 22, were educated under New Labour, learned all your politics at daddy's knee (from the 'insecure job' line, lots of hate in there, you're quite superior, aren't you?) but you don't really have any knowledge of the wider world yet, because you've never worked, hence why you don't actually offer any thoughts or opinions.)

And that's without even bothering to examine why you felt it necessary to pretend to be somebody else.

Weirdo.

Fri, 2010-04-30 13:54 — Karyobin. (not verified)

Thanks for taking the time, sweetie. You're obviously as busy as me.

Your syntax is a bit poor, but i'm sure it'll improve when you go on to higher education.

Fri, 2010-04-30 14:03 — Karyobin (not verified)

Yeah, there were a few typos. For some reason I find it quite difficult to make out mistakes in that old type-writer font.

Must be my Wet-AMD, eh?

Fri, 2010-04-30 21:05 — richee (not verified)

I feel that people really need to start to understand the seriousness of what they are doing when choosing their vote next week and not just voting on an x factor performance. Gordon is the only one who has the ability to lead the country event thou he isnt a fantastic performer on stage. A hung parliament will result in us going through all this again in 6 months and whats that going to cost us!!!

Sat, 2010-05-01 15:02 — ACMJ

I doubt whether people who have no intention of supporting David Cameron will regard Gordon Brown as conceding defeat , but simply clarifying where the country would stand in a hung parliament situation , if Labour came in third .
Once again I would like to indicate that there are no signs (except from Tory party financed polls ,and Tory orientated media like Sky/Fox and BBC)that Labour seats will crumble .
The reason being that people will not vote corrupt Tory party members in place of a seating mp ,no matter how much David Cameron may try and convince people that the Tories are not filled with corruption , and not supported like corrupt people like Lord Archer(who steals from charities) and Lord Ashcroft , who dodges taxes .
In fact the BBC wheeled out "Lord" Archer this week , during the political programme "This Week"!

Fri, 2010-04-30 10:41 — Sheila (not verified)

I have to agree. Floating voters do not like to hear that kind of thing, especially from a sitting PM.

Fri, 2010-04-30 10:49 — davidk1

It was merely an acknowledgement of the poll trends; a stressing of the urgency to turn it around to avoid a coalition government of party's who's policies on domestic social and economic issues would endanger the country.

Hardly a white flag moment.

Settle down and buckle up. It's going to be a bumpy week ahead.

Fri, 2010-04-30 10:53 — Daryl

I think that we worry too much about what combination a hung Parliament will take.
Cameron has painted over so many cracks in his own party, which he has been able to do by guaranteeing victory. An alliance with a pro-European Party will require compromises that wrench these cracks open.
We should fear only an outright Tory majority. Any other combination means Cameron has failed, and the hawks in his party will have him on a short leash. The nasty party will be revealed, and the party will be back where they were in the mid-1990s.
So everyone calm down, and vote for the progressive Party in your constituency that is most likely to beat a Tory.

Fri, 2010-04-30 11:01 — Peter (not verified)

I wonder if he's tired and ready to concede.

Got to say, I can't help but like the fella. The 'bigot' thing only makes me like him even more. But I wouldn't blame him if he walked away on May 5th, never mind 7th. How much can one man take?

Fri, 2010-04-30 11:02 — Graham Pugh (not verified)

I thought Brown scored a lot of points last night. Cameron was on the defensive for most of the evening. I certainly didn't interpret that as an admission of defeat but an honest nod to the current polls - with the intention to remind us that we could be heading for a government that will slash and burn for the many and give tax breaks to the few. Trouble is, I - like everyone - watched through biased eyes!

Fri, 2010-04-30 11:04 — davidk1

@ Daryl

Agree 100%. The a Labour victory has always been a chimera in this election. The big issue has always been whether the Tories fail to get an overall majority. He's been some way short of the polling figures throughout this campaign. If that is maintained, then that is what constitutes victory.

Fri, 2010-04-30 11:06 — James McFadden (not verified)

A meaningless article Mr Eaton. It was a very thought out strategy by team Brown. I believe it will go down well with voters - Brown made the stark reality of a Tory government clear. Keep the cretins out.

Fri, 2010-04-30 11:13 — writeoff (not verified)

Daryl's right. Tory unity is a sham until this election is out of the way. The Nasty Party was grinning through his performance all night - equity shares in more council houses, cutting taxes for businesses and the rich but no-one else, putting the boot into anyone on benefits (yet no-one defended claimants, or the safety net itself - quite impressive really). Banging on about lovely ovaltine drinking families (didn't he learn anything after John Major?. Anyone who suffered this crap before will recognise the same old pattern. Victory is a poisoned chalice, but the Tories will make everyone else drink from it but their own.

Fri, 2010-04-30 11:23 — Karyobin (not verified)

@ James McFadden

Oh, come on! Whether or not it (Brown's current supposed gaffe) proves to scare voters remains to be seen, but I doubt whether even Malcolm Tucker would have the neck to go with the 'well thought out strategy' spin that you seem to favour!

In my opinion the scariest moment of the night was Brown's smiling finale. Reminded me of a Harry Enfield character from years back.

Fri, 2010-04-30 11:57 — Silent Hunter

How much can one man take? Peter asks.

And the answer is - "about £860 BILLION" from all of us by his crass handling of the economy.

As for being a 'nice' man - this 'nice' man doubled the tax bills of 6 million of our lowest paid workers by abolishing the 10p tax band - and all to make him 'look good' at just one PMQ's.

Gordon Brown may be many things; but 'nice' isn't one of them.

Fri, 2010-04-30 12:18 — Reginald-Fah-fah

Marvellous! David Cameron won the third Leaders' debate! I say... the Conservatives will have to soon start up the Range Rovers and pick up passing Grannies and Grandpas, and take them to the polling station! Jolly good show!

Fri, 2010-04-30 12:16 — Karyobin (not verified)

@Silent Hunter

Careful - you'll get accused of being a Tory.

Fri, 2010-04-30 12:30 — Karyobin (not verified)

@Reginald-Fah-fah :

Well Gordon won't be picking them up, that's for sure. He doesn't do bigots.

Fri, 2010-04-30 12:45 — Peter (not verified)

@Silent Hunter
Yep, economy is a mess. Shame we ever thought you can make money out of financial services. What a dumb idea that was ...

But I can still like the fella, can't I?