Why the Lib Dems could still prevent a Tory victory

New poll finds the Conservatives won’t win any of the key 20 Lib Dem-Tory marginals.

Buried in the small print of the new Telegraph poll on marginals is this revealing finding:

The poll found that the Tories would pick up 74 of the 100 seats from Labour. However, they would not pick up any of the seats held by Liberal Democrats.

To secure a majority in the Commons, the Conservatives need to win no fewer than 117 seats. So if, as this poll suggests, they fail to win any of the 20 key Lib Dem-Tory marginals, they will struggle to prevent a hung parliament.

Thus, the Telegraph's claim that the Conservatives are "are on course for a convincing election victory" is not supported by the facts.

It's not surprising that the Tories are struggling in these seats. First, many Lib Dems MPs have large local followings and a deserved reputation as dogged campaigners. Second, in a significant number of these seats the Tories are not in second place, but third, putting them out of the party's reach.

That Nick Clegg's party could still prevent a Conservative majority explains why the Tories are spinning the line that a vote for the Lib Dems is a "vote for Labour".

Both Gordon Brown and David Cameron would love to go in hard against Clegg in tonight's live TV debate. But they'll both need his support in the event of a hung parliament, so they're more likely to concentrate their fire on each other.

Join us for the first leaders' TV debate tonight.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Gordon Brown contemplated making Alastair Campbell a minister

The move is revealed in Ed Balls' new book.

Gordon Brown contemplated making Alastair Campbell, a sports minister. Campbell had served as Tony Blair’s press chief from 1994 to 2003, Ed Balls has revealed.

Although the move fell through, Campbell would have been one of a number of high-profile ministerial appointments, usually through the Lords, made by Brown during his tenure at 10 Downing Street.

Other unusual appointments included the so-called “Goats” appointed in 2007, part of what Brown dubbed “the government of all the talents”, in which Ara Darzi, a respected surgeon, Mark Malloch-Brown, formerly a United Nations diplomat,  Alan West, a former admiral, Paul Myners, a  successful businessman, and Digby Jones, former director-general of the CBI, took ministerial posts and seats in the Lords. While Darzi, West and Myners were seen as successes on Whitehall, Jones quit the government after a year and became a vocal critic of both Brown’s successors as Labour leader, Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn.

The story is revealed in Ed Balls’ new book, Speaking Out, a record of his time as a backroom adviser and later Cabinet and shadow cabinet minister until the loss of his seat in May 2015. It is published 6 September.