Tory momentum stalls in the marginals that matter

Cameron's lead down to 2 points, personal ratings tank.

Eighteen months ago, someone at Channel 4 News made a smart call. It was autumn 2008 and the programme's makers were keen to discover whether Gordon Brown's role in "saving" the banks would ultimately save his premiership. But rather than test the mood of the country as a whole, the show set about polling in marginal constituencies.

And not just any marginals. The seats where David Cameron's Conservatives only needed to overturn a lead of a few hundred were irrelevant -- Cameron had those in the bag long ago. Rather, YouGov was asked to look at seats where Labour had majorities of roughly 2,000 to 7,000 votes, the very seats the Tories have to win if they want an overall majority.

In other words, these are the marginals that matter.

This week, YouGov returned to those 60 Labour-Conservative constituencies and last night Channel 4 News broke the bad news to Cameron and co -- the Tory lead over Labour is just 2 points, translating to a Conservative government 11 short of a majority. This is hung parliament territory.

The figures themselves are not disastrous for the Conservatives but the trend is worrying, suggesting a loss of that electoral magic formula: momentum.

Back in October 2008, despite the bailout bounce Brown was enjoying elsewhere, the Tories had a commanding 13 per cent lead in these 60 seats. Moreover, Cameron's personal ratings comfortably trumped Brown's. Not any more. For example, 70 per cent now think that David Cameron in No 10 would mean either change for the worse or no change.

The Michael Ashcroft millions, targeted at just this kind of seat, may yet start to work, but as YouGov's president, Peter Kellner, notes:

If Mr Cameron can't turn that round, and if the general election results are exactly in line with our poll, then the Tory leader would unquestionably become prime minister, but he may need to call an early second election to seek a clearer mandate from Britain's voters.

And if he continues to lose momentum in these seats, things could be even worse. As it says on this week's New Statesman cover: "Game on".

Follow the New Statesman team on Twitter

Jon Bernstein, former deputy editor of New Statesman, is a digital strategist and editor. He tweets @Jon_Bernstein. 

Getty Images.
Show Hide image

How will Labour handle the Trident vote?

Shadow cabinet ministers have been promised a free vote and dismiss suggestions that the party should abstain. 

At some point this year MPs will vote on whether Trident should be renewed. It is politics, rather than policy, that will likely determine the timing. With Labour more divided on the nuclear question than any other, the Tories aim to inflict maximum damage on the opposition. Some want an early vote in order to wreak havoc ahead of the May elections, while others suggest waiting until autumn in the hope that the unilateralist Jeremy Corbyn may have changed party policy by then.  

Urged at PMQs by Conservative defence select committee chair Julian Lewis to "do the statesmanlike thing" and hold the vote "as soon as possible", Cameron replied: "We should have the vote when we need to have the vote and that is exactly what we will do" - a reply that does little to settle the matter. 

As I've reported before, frontbenchers have been privately assured by Corbyn that they and other Labour MPs will have a free vote on the issue. Just seven of the shadow cabinet's 31 members support unilateral disarmament, with Tom Watson, Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle among those committed to Trident renewal. But interviewed on the Today programme yesterday, after her gruelling PLP appearance, Emily Thornberry suggested that Labour may advise MPs to abstain. Noting that there was no legal requirement for the Commons to vote on the decision (and that MPs did so in 2007), she denounced the Tories for "playing games". But the possibility that Labour could ignore the vote was described to me by one shadow cabinet member as "madness". He warned that Labour would appear entirely unfit to govern if it abstained on a matter of national security. 

But with Trident renewal a fait accompli, owing to the Conservatives' majority, the real battle is to determine Labour's stance at the next election. Sources on both sides are doubtful that Corbyn will have the support required to change policy at the party conference, with the trade unions, including the pro-Trident Unite and GMB, holding 50 per cent of the vote. And Trident supporters also speak of their success against the left in constituency delegate elections. One described the Corbyn-aligned Momentum as a "clickocracy" that ultimately failed to turn out when required. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.