Web Only: the best of the blogs

The five must-read blogs from today, on the Budget date, Cameron in Vanity Fair, and a Lib Dem coali

1. Why did Brown leave the Budget so late?

The Orange Party says the reason it took Gordon Brown so long to announce the date of the Budget is that it also gives away the date of the election.

2. Hague attempts to woo Europe as Americans voice concerns

William Hague is insisting that a Tory government wouldn't "pick a fight" with Europe to offset US concern about the party's foreign policy, reports Left Foot Forward's Shamik Das.

3. PMQs -- The Speaker has the best line

John Bercow's put-down to an unruly Tory backbencher -- "Your heckling is as boring as it is boorish" -- was a classic, says the FT's Westminster blog.

4. David Cameron rejects "left or right" political labels

Andrew Sparrow picks out the highlights of Vanity Fair's profile of David Cameron, in which Ed Vaizey says the Tory leader is "much more conservative by nature than he acts".

5. Five reasons Nick Clegg should rule out a coalition now

The Lib Dem position in the event of a hung parliament has been the subject of much speculation. Stephen Tall at Liberal Democrat Voice puts forward the arguments in favour of an unambiguous statement that the party would not enter a coalition with either Labour or the Tories.

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Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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