Morning Call: pick of the comment

The ten must-read pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Keep plugging away. The brand is a winner (Times)

The Tories think that the job of changing their party's image is complete, says Daniel Finkelstein. It isn't -- they must continue to reinforce their new brand. Complacency could be fatal.

2. The Innocent smoothies of politics are still the party of the rich (Guardian)

Jonathan Freedland agrees that the Conservative Party rebranding was an early success. But, he says, the Michael Ashcroft tax scandal plays into the public's expectations of the party -- the new Tory brand can't survive many more ugly revelations.

3. Charisma can only go so far for Cameron (Financial Times)

All the charisma in the world can't sort out the contradictions in the new Conservative message, says Matthew Engel. At the end of the day, politics is about beef as well as beefcake.

4. An appeal to the better nature of the baby boomers -- and Boris Johnson (Daily Telegraph)

The Tory front-bencher David Willetts responds to the Mayor of London's column in Monday's Telegraph, which challenged the argument of his new book. Willetts reaffirms that the contract between the generations is broken.

5. Belfast: this deal is a big deal (Guardian)

Devolution completes the Northern Irish jigsaw, but, says Denis Murray, in two years no one will remember that it was an issue. The DUP's main problem now is the formation of an ultra-traditionalist party that will split the unionist vote three ways.

6. Don't write off the US economy (Independent)

China and India may be growing much faster, says Hamish McRae, but in technical innovation there's no contest: the rest of the world looks to the United States for innovation.

7. Where have all the female firebrands gone? (Times)

In 1997 a record number of women MPs got into parliament, says Suzy Jagger. But their biggest achievement was getting elected -- women are not making heavyweight policy on the front benches, or causing trouble from the back benches.

8. Straw has left justice to the tender mercies of the press (Guardian)

The chief enemy of British freedom today is the British press, according to Simon Jenkins. Under the banner of transparency, ministers have allowed a frenzy of blame to develop around the Jon Venables case. This is a decline from the rule of law back towards the lynch mob.

9. Europe must confront its real economic problems (Independent)

Blaming speculators for the eurozone's woes is a displacement activity, says the leading article. Europe needs fundamental reforms to its labour markets and a big shift in internal demand.

10. Rob rich bankers and give money to the poor (Times)

Jeffrey Sachs makes the case for a Robin Hood tax on financial transactions; after all, Wall Street and the City did so little to deserve their record profits.

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Who will win the Copeland by-election?

Labour face a tricky task in holding onto the seat. 

What’s the Copeland by-election about? That’s the question that will decide who wins it.

The Conservatives want it to be about the nuclear industry, which is the seat’s biggest employer, and Jeremy Corbyn’s long history of opposition to nuclear power.

Labour want it to be about the difficulties of the NHS in Cumbria in general and the future of West Cumberland Hospital in particular.

Who’s winning? Neither party is confident of victory but both sides think it will be close. That Theresa May has visited is a sign of the confidence in Conservative headquarters that, win or lose, Labour will not increase its majority from the six-point lead it held over the Conservatives in May 2015. (It’s always more instructive to talk about vote share rather than raw numbers, in by-elections in particular.)

But her visit may have been counterproductive. Yes, she is the most popular politician in Britain according to all the polls, but in visiting she has added fuel to the fire of Labour’s message that the Conservatives are keeping an anxious eye on the outcome.

Labour strategists feared that “the oxygen” would come out of the campaign if May used her visit to offer a guarantee about West Cumberland Hospital. Instead, she refused to answer, merely hyping up the issue further.

The party is nervous that opposition to Corbyn is going to supress turnout among their voters, but on the Conservative side, there is considerable irritation that May’s visit has made their task harder, too.

Voters know the difference between a by-election and a general election and my hunch is that people will get they can have a free hit on the health question without risking the future of the nuclear factory. That Corbyn has U-Turned on nuclear power only helps.

I said last week that if I knew what the local paper would look like between now and then I would be able to call the outcome. Today the West Cumbria News & Star leads with Downing Street’s refusal to answer questions about West Cumberland Hospital. All the signs favour Labour. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.