Web Only: the best of the blogs

The five must-read posts from today, on Northern Ireland, marginal seats and benefit cheats.

1. How "AV" made Cameron Tory leader

Michael Crick points out that had the Tories used first-past-the-post in 2005, David Cameron would have lost to David Davis.

2. Northern Ireland decommissioning -- progress but not the end

At Left Foot Forward, Ed Jacobs blogs on Northern Ireland's slow march towards peace, and the painful process of laying the violent past to rest.

3. Is it because the marginals ARE different?

Mike Smithson at PoliticalBetting shows us visually why things might be different in the marginal seats.

4. Cash back or not, Tories don't deserve to win Westminster North

Simon Fletcher gauges reaction to the news that Joanne Cash, the Tory candidate in Westminster North, has stood down due to party infighting.

5. Benefit cheats and the profit principle

Daniel Finkelstein writes that Labour's plan to reward those who identify benefit cheats with a share of the savings establishes a useful principle.

 

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Why the Labour rebels have delayed their leadership challenge

MPs hope that Jeremy Corbyn may yet resign, while Owen Smith is competing with Angela Eagle to be the candidate.

The Eagle has hovered but not yet landed. Yesterday evening Angela Eagle's team briefed that she would launch her leadership challenge at 3pm today. A senior MP told me: "the overwhelming view of the PLP is that she is the one to unite Labour." But by this lunchtime it had become clear that Eagle wouldn't declare today.

The delay is partly due to the hope that Jeremy Corbyn may yet be persuaded to resign. Four members of his shadow cabinet - Clive Lewis, Rachel Maskell, Cat Smith and Andy McDonald - were said by sources to want the Labour leader to stand down. When they denied that this was the case, I was told: "Then they're lying to their colleagues". There is also increasing speculation that Corbyn has come close to departing. "JC was five minutes away from resigning yesterday," an insider said. "But Seumas [Milne] torpedoed the discussions he was having with Tom Watson." 

Some speak of a potential deal under which Corbyn would resign in return for a guarantee that an ally, such as John McDonnell or Lewis, would make the ballot. But others say there is not now, never has there ever been, any prospect of Corbyn departing. "The obligation he feels to his supporters is what sustains him," a senior ally told me. Corbyn's supporters, who are confident they can win a new leadership contest, were cheered by Eagle's delay. "The fact even Angela isn't sure she should be leader is telling, JC hasn't wavered once," a source said. But her supporters say she is merely waiting for him to "do the decent thing". 

Another reason for the postponement is a rival bid by Owen Smith. Like Eagle, the former shadow work and pensions secrtary is said to have collected the 51 MP/MEP nominations required to stand. Smith, who first revealed his leadership ambitions to me in an interview in January, is regarded by some as the stronger candidate. His supporters fear that Eagle's votes in favour of the Iraq war and Syria air strikes (which Smith opposed) would be fatal to her bid. 

On one point Labour MPs are agreed: there must be just one "unity candidate". But after today's delay, a challenger may not be agreed until Monday. In the meantime, the rebels' faint hope that Corbyn may depart endures. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.