Morning Call: pick of the comment

The ten must-read pieces from this morning's papers.

1. A death tax is the fairest one. Yet now no voter will buy it (Guardian)

Peter Wilby argues that a "death tax" is the most socially just and economically efficient means of funding social care. But Britain's obsession with home ownership will make it hard to convince the voters.

2. Private lives should never belong to the public (Times)

The relentless desire for information about politicians' private lives could lead to terrible mistakes, writes David Aaronovitch. Had we known, for instance, that Mo Mowlam was suffering from a malignant brain tumour, she would never have held ministerial office.

3. Britain needs an Afghan exit strategy (Financial Times)

Britain must come up with its own timetable for withdrawal from Afghanistan, writes Philip Stephens. It is hard to see how an open-ended commitment to keep British troops in there serves the national interest.

4. The brave and honourable spirit of Britain's soldiers will benefit us all (Daily Telegraph)

Elsewhere, Crispin Black writes that the authority and judgement British troops acquire from serving in Afghanistan will benefit us all once they return to civilian life.

5. Almost everything you think you know about the PM is untrue (Independent)

Steve Richards says that Gordon Brown's impressive interview with Piers Morgan has made the contest over personalities a lot more interesting and a little less predictable.

6. Why Mexico is the missing Bric (Financial Times)

Mexico should be one of the world's rising powers, but the country's drug war is blighting its future, writes Gideon Rachman.

7. Shame on those now sneering at the European project (Independent)

Denis MacShane argues that the Greek crisis reflects the weakness of the EU. The Labour MP says the Union's lack of economic authority allowed Greece to continue its clientelist and corrupt distortion of the public finances without any intervention.

8.. Bite the bullet. Kick Greece out of the euro (Times)

Elsewhere, Ruth Lea argues that, for the sake of the eurozone's long-term viability, the EU must evict Greece now.

9. While we brace for the pain of cuts, executive pay soars (Guardian)

The latest round of bonuses lays bare the myth of the trickle-down effect, says Deborah Hargreaves.

10. See evil, hear evil (Times)

A leading article says that the British establishment must come to terms with MI5's collusion in the torture of Binyam Mohamed.

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Is defeat in Stoke the beginning of the end for Paul Nuttall?

The Ukip leader was his party's unity candidate. But after his defeat in Stoke, the old divisions are beginning to show again

In a speech to Ukip’s spring conference in Bolton on February 17, the party’s once and probably future leader Nigel Farage laid down the gauntlet for his successor, Paul Nuttall. Stoke’s by-election was “fundamental” to the future of the party – and Nuttall had to win.
 
One week on, Nuttall has failed that test miserably and thrown the fundamental questions hanging over Ukip’s future into harsh relief. 

For all his bullish talk of supplanting Labour in its industrial heartlands, the Ukip leader only managed to increase the party’s vote share by 2.2 percentage points on 2015. This paltry increase came despite Stoke’s 70 per cent Brexit majority, and a media narrative that was, until the revelations around Nuttall and Hillsborough, talking the party’s chances up.
 
So what now for Nuttall? There is, for the time being, little chance of him resigning – and, in truth, few inside Ukip expected him to win. Nuttall was relying on two well-rehearsed lines as get-out-of-jail free cards very early on in the campaign. 

The first was that the seat was a lowly 72 on Ukip’s target list. The second was that he had been leader of party whose image had been tarnished by infighting both figurative and literal for all of 12 weeks – the real work of his project had yet to begin. 

The chances of that project ever succeeding were modest at the very best. After yesterday’s defeat, it looks even more unlikely. Nuttall had originally stated his intention to run in the likely by-election in Leigh, Greater Manchester, when Andy Burnham wins the Greater Manchester metro mayoralty as is expected in May (Wigan, the borough of which Leigh is part, voted 64 per cent for Brexit).

If he goes ahead and stands – which he may well do – he will have to overturn a Labour majority of over 14,000. That, even before the unedifying row over the veracity of his Hillsborough recollections, was always going to be a big challenge. If he goes for it and loses, his leadership – predicated as it is on his supposed ability to win votes in the north - will be dead in the water. 

Nuttall is not entirely to blame, but he is a big part of Ukip’s problem. I visited Stoke the day before The Guardian published its initial report on Nuttall’s Hillsborough claims, and even then Nuttall’s campaign manager admitted that he was unlikely to convince the “hard core” of Conservative voters to back him. 

There are manifold reasons for this, but chief among them is that Nuttall, despite his newfound love of tweed, is no Nigel Farage. Not only does he lack his name recognition and box office appeal, but the sad truth is that the Tory voters Ukip need to attract are much less likely to vote for a party led by a Scouser whose platform consists of reassuring working-class voters their NHS and benefits are safe.
 
It is Farage and his allies – most notably the party’s main donor Arron Banks – who hold the most power over Nuttall’s future. Banks, who Nuttall publicly disowned as a non-member after he said he was “sick to death” of people “milking” the Hillsborough disaster, said on the eve of the Stoke poll that Ukip had to “remain radical” if it wanted to keep receiving his money. Farage himself has said the party’s campaign ought to have been “clearer” on immigration. 

Senior party figures are already briefing against Nuttall and his team in the Telegraph, whose proprietors are chummy with the beer-swilling Farage-Banks axis. They deride him for his efforts to turn Ukip into “NiceKip” or “Nukip” in order to appeal to more women voters, and for the heavy-handedness of his pitch to Labour voters (“There were times when I wondered whether I’ve got a purple rosette or a red one on”, one told the paper). 

It is Nuttall’s policy advisers - the anti-Farage awkward squad of Suzanne Evans, MEP Patrick O’Flynn (who famously branded Farage "snarling, thin-skinned and aggressive") and former leadership candidate Lisa Duffy – come in for the harshest criticism. Herein lies the leader's almost impossible task. Despite having pitched to members as a unity candidate, the two sides’ visions for Ukip are irreconcilable – one urges him to emulate Trump (who Nuttall says he would not have voted for), and the other urges a more moderate tack. 

Endorsing his leader on Question Time last night, Ukip’s sole MP Douglas Carswell blamed the legacy of the party’s Tea Party-inspired 2015 general election campaign, which saw Farage complain about foreigners with HIV using the NHS in ITV’s leaders debate, for the party’s poor performance in Stoke. Others, such as MEP Bill Etheridge, say precisely the opposite – that Nuttall must be more like Farage. 

Neither side has yet called for Nuttall’s head. He insists he is “not going anywhere”. With his febrile party no stranger to abortive coup and counter-coup, he is unlikely to be the one who has the final say.