Why the Tory poll lead is crumbling

New poll shows that bullying allegations have not hurt Labour.

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Latest poll (Sun/YouGov): Conservatives 31 seats short of a majority.

There's more bad news for David Cameron in two polls this morning. A new Guardian/ICM poll puts the Tories on 37 per cent, down 2 points since the last ICM poll and only 7 points ahead of Labour.

And the latest YouGov daily poll (erroneously reported to show a 12-point lead for the Tories) puts the Conservative lead at 6 points, unchanged since last weekend's Sunday Times poll. Even if we don't assume a uniform swing, both put us back in hung parliament territory.

Significantly, the fieldwork for the YouGov poll was carried out between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon -- after Andrew Rawnsley's allegations about Gordon Brown's "bullying" were published. This suggests that the affair, as my colleagues Mehdi and James predicted, has (so far) done almost no damage to Labour. A below-headline question found that only 24 per cent of voters view Brown as a "bully".

New Statesman poll of polls

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Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority.

It's worth pausing for a minute to remember the fuss that last November's Observer/MORI poll caused when it showed the Tories' lead had fallen to 6 points. Back then, it was the only poll out of ten published that month not to award Cameron a double-digit lead.

Now, two of the most recent five polls have put the Tory lead at 6 per cent; the rest (with the notable exception of Angus Reid) similarly give Cameron a single-figure lead over Labour.

How to explain the decline in Conservative support? First, it reflects greater media scrutiny of the Tories. The press, regardless of its right-wing bias, wants to see a contest.

Second, the fragile nature of the economic recovery appears to be working in Gordon Brown's favour. It strengthens his argument that immediate spending cuts would damage the economy and upsets the message the Tories have been pushing for the past year.

Finally, Cameron, hitherto a remarkably assured leader, has committed an unusual number of gaffes and errors: the airbrushed poster, the confusion about his marriage tax policy, the interminable row over Lord Ashcroft, the foolhardy attack on Labour's "death tax". All of these have damaged his party's standing with the press and the public.

Cameron is holding an extended, two-hour meeting with his shadow cabinet today. If the Tories are to stand any chance of winning a working majority, they had better come up with some answers.

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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The most terrifying thing about Donald Trump's speech? What he didn't say

No politician uses official speeches to put across their most controversial ideas. But Donald Trump's are not hard to find. 

As Donald Trump took the podium on a cold Washington day to deliver his inauguration speech, the world held its breath. Viewers hunched over televisions or internet streaming services watched Trump mouth “thank you” to the camera, no doubt wondering how he could possibly live up to his deranged late-night Twitter persona. In newsrooms across America, reporters unsure when they might next get access to a president who seems to delight in denying them the right to ask questions got ready to parse his words for any clue as to what was to come. Some, deciding they couldn’t bear to watch, studiously busied themselves with other things.

But when the moment came, Trump’s speech was uncharacteristically professional – at least compared to his previous performances. The fractured, repetitive grammar that marks many of his off-the-cuff statements was missing, and so, too, were most of his most controversial policy ideas.

Trump told the crowd that his presidency would “determine the course of America, and the world, for many, many years to come” before expressing his gratefulness to President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama for their “gracious aid” during the transition. “They have been magnificent," Trump said, before leading applause of thanks from the crowd.

If this opening was innocent enough, however, it all changed in the next breath. The new president moved quickly to the “historic movement”, “the likes of which the world has never seen before”, that elected him President. Following the small-state rhetoric of his campaign, Trump promised to take power from the “establishment” and restore it to the American people. “This moment," he told them, “Is your moment. It belongs to you.”

A good deal of the speech was given over to re-iterating his nationalist positions while also making repeated references to the key issues – “Islamic terrorism” and families – that remain points of commonality within the fractured Republican GOP.

The loss of business to overseas producers was blamed for “destroying our jobs”. “Protection," Trump said, “Will lead to great strength." He promised to end what he called the “American carnage” caused by drugs and crime.

“From this day forward," Trump said, “It’s going to be only America first."

There was plenty in the speech, then, that should worry viewers, particularly if you read Trump’s promises to make America “unstoppable” so it can “win” again in light of his recent tweets about China

But it was the things Trump didn't mention that should worry us most. Trump, we know, doesn’t use official channels to communicate his most troubling ideas. From bizarre television interviews to his upsetting and offensive rallies and, of course, the infamous tweets, the new President is inclined to fling his thoughts into the world as and when he sees fit, not on the occasions when he’s required to address the nation (see, also, his anodyne acceptance speech).

It’s important to remember that Trump’s administration wins when it makes itself seem as innocent as possible. During the speech, I was reminded of my colleague Helen Lewis’ recent thoughts on the “gaslighter-in-chief”, reflecting on Trump’s lying claim that he never mocked a disabled reporter. “Now we can see," she wrote, “A false narrative being built in real time, tweet by tweet."

Saying things that are untrue isn’t the only way of lying – it is also possible to lie by omission.

There has been much discussion as to whether Trump will soften after he becomes president. All the things this speech did not mention were designed to keep us guessing about many of the President’s most controversial promises.

Trump did not mention his proposed ban on Muslims entering the US, nor the wall he insists he will erect between America and Mexico (which he maintains the latter will pay for). He maintained a polite coolness towards the former President and avoiding any discussion of alleged cuts to anti-domestic violence programs and abortion regulations. Why? Trump wanted to leave viewers unsure as to whether he actually intends to carry through on his election rhetoric.

To understand what Trump is capable of, therefore, it is best not to look to his speeches on a global stage, but to the promises he makes to his allies. So when the President’s personal website still insists he will build a wall, end catch-and-release, suspend immigration from “terror-prone regions” “where adequate screening cannot occur”; when, despite saying he understands only 3 per cent of Planned Parenthood services relate to abortion and that “millions” of women are helped by their cancer screening, he plans to defund Planned Parenthood; when the president says he will remove gun-free zones around schools “on his first day” - believe him.  

Stephanie Boland is digital assistant at the New Statesman. She tweets at @stephanieboland