Morning Call: pick of the comment

The ten must-read pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Ignore the propaganda and spin -- the Tory party hasn't changed (Independent)

Johann Hari attacks David Cameron's claim to have "changed" the Conservative Party. Even if we assume the Tory leader is sincerely committed to a modernising agenda, he will not be able to defy his party's core instincts for long, especially not with a small Commons majority.

2. World economists join UK fiscal fray (Financial Times)

A leader in the FT says that today's letters to the paper from two groups of economists are an embarrassment for the Tories. The government is right to cut public spending no sooner than it currently plans.

3. Clegg's coalition ruling is one more nail in Labour's coffin (Guardian)

Martin Kettle says that, given Nick Clegg's decision to rule out a coalition between the Liberal Democrats and either Labour or the Tories, a hung parliament will almost certainly produce a minority Conservative government.

4. Look further than the fads and fashions of geopolitics (Financial Times)

We should shun the geopolitical seers who offer us grand predictions about the future international order, writes Philip Stephens. We can draw only tentative conclusions from the rise of China, India, Brazil and the rest.

5. Studying history is vital -- there are obvious lessons for Cameron (Daily Telegraph)

Jeff Randall argues that Cameron should learn from Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher that caution and moderation do not win elections.

6. The car in front will probably still be a Toyota (Times)

Toyota's reputation for quality and reliability is unlikely to be damaged permanently by the current crisis, writes Richard Headland. On the ground, the company managed to mobilise its dealers and design new parts with extraordinary speed.

7. Juries show society at its fairest (Independent)

The absence of racial prejudice in jury trials is an extraordinary discovery, says Andreas Whittam Smith. The finding shows that racism in this country, though deeply unpleasant, is superficial.

8. Troubled waters (Times)

A leader in the Times argues that Argentina's attempt to prevent Britain drilling for oil in the Falklands is harming its own interests.

9. The murder of al-Mabhouh is an insult to our intelligence (Daily Telegraph)

The Dubai killing has jeopardised Anglo-Israeli co-operation in the war against terrorism, writes Con Coughlin.

10. Spiritual leader deserves full honour (Independent)

Adrian Hamilton argues that governments should defy China and treat the Dalai Lama as a political leader, rather than merely a religious figurehead.

Follow the New Statesman team on Twitter.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
Show Hide image

Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

0800 7318496