Morning Call: pick of the comment

The ten must-read pieces from the Sunday papers

1. Britain's dirty secret: class still matters (Sunday Times)

Jenni Russell argues that neither of the two main parties is being honest about what is needed to improve class mobility. Labour fails to look closely enough at behaviour and character, while the Tories refuse to confront the realities of structural privilege.

2. Why Ulster should celebrate its sex and money scandal (Observer)

Andrew Rawnsley says that the Iris Robinson scandal demonstrates that the politics of Northern Ireland, abnormal for so long, are becoming a little bit more like everywhere else's. Sex and money scandals are the stuff of ordinary politics the world over.

3. How many years out in the cold? (Independent on Sunday)

John Rentoul says there are hopeful signs that Labour will not fall into open warfare if defeated at the next election. Jon Cruddas, a thoughtful and unifying figure, is said to be open to running as David Miliband's deputy.

4. There's no shame in hiring a pariah (Observer)

By hiring Sir Fred Goodwin as a senior adviser, the international architecture firm RMJM has recognised the talent beneath the tarnish, says Heather McGregor.

5. The world expects the US to do its duty (Independent on Sunday)

Barack Obama has responded well to the Haitian crisis but he must now ensure that more aid gets through, says James Moore.

6. Forget it -- Blair will never be branded a war criminal (Observer)

Nick Cohen argues that opponents of the Iraq war are still unable to substantiate their claim that the 2003 invasion was "illegal". The Ba'athist regime was not entitled to treat the country as its private prison.

7. Gordon Brown's election strategy is doomed, but you have to admire the cheek of it (Sunday Telegraph)

Matthew d'Ancona predicts that Brown's attempt to present himself as the champion of the middle classes will backfire.

8. Be afraid, China, the Google dragon stirs (Sunday Times)

Dominic Lawson says that when civilisations clash, there is generally only one winner. Despite its genius for repression, the Chinese Communist Party will be beaten by Google.

9. Our troops need aid too (News of the World)

Fraser Nelson argues that, with Britain at war, David Cameron should give priority to the defence budget over international development.

10. Say what you like, as long as it meets with the mob's approval (Observer)

Catherine Bennett says that, following the rise of the Twitter mob, the privilege of free expression carries with it a grave responsibility: not to say anything that people might not like.

 

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Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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