Morning call: pick of the comment

The ten must-read pieces from the Sunday papers

1. Cameron tells us Britain is broken -- but not how to fix it (Observer)

After the horror of the Edlington case, says the Observer editorial, we must search our society for explanations. But there is a gap in Conservative social policy between the big "broken Britain" rhetoric and the little ideas.

2. Sending signals is not enough (Independent on Sunday)

John Rentoul points out that back in 1993 Tony Blair used rhetoric similar to Cameron's. But the Conservative leader's flailing semaphore doesn't address the complexities of "our broken society".

3. This social work by computer system is protecting no one (Sunday Times)

Hundreds of thousands of children are growing up in disorder and neglect, says Jenni Russell, and our system is prepared to deal with only a fraction of them. We must provide early intervention, or intensive support.

4. Marriage just wasn't a choice for my mother (Observer)

The Conservative MP David Davis defends Tory reticence on defining a marriage policy, arguing that it is a complex area. He illustrates this with personal experience, saying he favours marriage, but we must not forget those who are divorced, widowed or abandoned.

5. Apple's Tablet: a gizmo to save the world (Sunday Telegraph)

William Langley looks ahead to the launch of Apple's latest device, the iTablet, and thinks it could rescue our society from electronic servitude.

6. We were too slow in Haiti, and need to know why (Independent on Sunday)

Frank Judd says that wiith disasters likely to become more common, we need beefed-up international bodies that reflect the global public's desire to help.

7. After the Massachusetts Massacre (New York Times)

Neither in action nor in message is Barack Obama in front of the anger roiling the country over a dysfunctional economy and corrupt business culture, says Frank Rich. He must exercise take-no-prisoners leadership to stay in the White House.

8. Barack Obama's banking plan could split the west (Sunday Times)

Picking up the same theme, the Times leading article says that governments collectively can prevent banks from playing the system. Divided, they will end up achieving little.

9. Stop playing politics with our rights and freedoms. They're too valuable (Observer)

The Human Rights Act was used as a fig leaf for attacks on our civil liberties, says Henry Porter. What we need now is a great repeal bill which restores all that Labour has taken from us.

10. David Cameron's dream could end up a nightmare (News of the World)

Fraser Nelson discusses the possibility of a hung parliament, warning that the Tory leader could end up at the mercy of party rebels if he is elected without a large majority.

 

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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.