Morning Call: pick of the comment

The ten must-read pieces from the Sunday papers.

1. Blair v Chilcot. No contest: we and the truth are the losers (Observer)

Andrew Rawnsley says that the ease with which Tony Blair ran rings round the Chilcot inquiry left a bad taste in the mouth. It may now be beyond any earthly power to get a final reckoning from him for Iraq.

2. The patient's on a dripfeed -- cuts now will kill us (Mail on Sunday)

Vince Cable warns that the economy is too fragile to withstand immediate cuts in public spending. But he adds that it is unjust of Labour and the Tories to ring-fence some budgets from cuts and condemn others to deep reductions.

3. Blair will never escape censure on this earth (Sunday Mirror)

The New Statesman editor, Jason Cowley, says that Blair performed brilliantly at the Chilcot inquiry but Iraq remains a terrible legacy for him. Labour has learned the lessons of the war and has a new multilateral foreign policy.

4. Another act in the Leader's Tragedy (Independent on Sunday)

John Rentoul argues that Blair's failure to pay his respects to the fallen at the Chilcot inquiry was a mistake. In order to defend his historical reputation, he needed to engage more with the arguments that informed his judgements.

5. Tony Blair sold the Iraq war on his judgement. His judgement was wrong (Observer)

A leading article in the Observer, which supported the invasion at the time, says that Blair's decision was wrong. The methods used to take Britain to war perverted democracy and the law.

6. The danger for Cameron in a feeble recovery (Sunday Times)

A leader warns the Tories that Labour appears to benefiting from the gradual economic recovery. David Cameron must prevent his party members from being seen as dangerous and irresponsible cutters.

7. It's all aboard the gravy train for Network Rail bosses (Observer)

Nick Cohen argues that Network Rail, where bosses earn up to £1.2m a year, is another example of private affluence at public expense. Britain is the only European country to allow a fragmented privatised rail network.

8. Trust has been the biggest casualty of the Iraq affair (Sunday Telegraph)

Richard Dannatt says that never again must the armed forces be placed in a position where they doubt the integrity of the government.

9. The real north-south divide crippling Britain (Sunday Times)

Rigid national pay scales are undermining public-service reform, argues Alison Wolf. In the coming years, national bargaining will make rational cost-cutting impossible.

10. Inequality in Britain isn't down to class but brains (Sunday Telegraph)

Alasdair Palmer says that IQ, not social class, is the best predictor for income and status.

 

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After Richmond Park, Labour MPs are haunted by a familiar ghost

Labour MPs in big cities fear the Liberal Democrats, while in the north, they fear Ukip. 

The Liberal Democrats’ victory in Richmond Park has Conservatives nervous, and rightly so. Not only did Sarah Olney take the votes of soft Conservatives who backed a Remain vote on 23 June, she also benefited from tactical voting from Labour voters.

Although Richmond Park is the fifth most pro-Remain constituency won by a Conservative at the 2015 election, the more significant number – for the Liberal Democrats at least – is 15: that’s the number of Tory-held seats they could win if they reduced the Labour vote by the same amount they managed in Richmond Park.

The Tories have two Brexit headaches, electorally speaking. The first is the direct loss of voters who backed David Cameron in 2015 and a Remain vote in 2016 to the Liberal Democrats. The second is that Brexit appears to have made Liberal Democrat candidates palatable to Labour voters who backed the party as the anti-Conservative option in seats where Labour is generally weak from 1992 to 2010, but stayed at home or voted Labour in 2015.

Although local council by-elections are not as dramatic as parliamentary ones, they offer clues as to how national elections may play out, and it’s worth noting that Richmond Park wasn’t the only place where the Liberal Democrats saw a dramatic surge in the party’s fortunes. They also made a dramatic gain in Chichester, which voted to leave.

(That’s the other factor to remember in the “Leave/Remain” divide. In Liberal-Conservative battlegrounds where the majority of voters opted to leave, the third-placed Labour and Green vote tends to be heavily pro-Remain.)

But it’s not just Conservatives with the Liberal Democrats in second who have cause to be nervous.  Labour MPs outside of England's big cities have long been nervous that Ukip will do to them what the SNP did to their Scottish colleagues in 2015. That Ukip is now in second place in many seats that Labour once considered safe only adds to the sense of unease.

In a lot of seats, the closeness of Ukip is overstated. As one MP, who has the Conservatives in second place observed, “All that’s happened is you used to have five or six no-hopers, and all of that vote has gone to Ukip, so colleagues are nervous”. That’s true, to an extent. But it’s worth noting that the same thing could be said for the Liberal Democrats in Conservative seats in 1992. All they had done was to coagulate most of the “anyone but the Conservative” vote under their banner. In 1997, they took Conservative votes – and with it, picked up 28 formerly Tory seats.

Also nervous are the party’s London MPs, albeit for different reasons. They fear that Remain voters will desert them for the Liberal Democrats. (It’s worth noting that Catherine West, who sits for the most pro-Remain seat in the country, has already told constituents that she will vote against Article 50, as has David Lammy, another North London MP.)

A particular cause for alarm is that most of the party’s high command – Jeremy Corbyn, Emily Thornberry, Diane Abbott, and Keir Starmer – all sit for seats that were heavily pro-Remain. Thornberry, in particular, has the particularly dangerous combination of a seat that voted Remain in June but has flirted with the Liberal Democrats in the past, with the shadow foreign secretary finishing just 484 votes ahead of Bridget Fox, the Liberal Democrat candidate, in 2005.

Are they right to be worried? That the referendum allowed the Liberal Democrats to reconfigure the politics of Richmond Park adds credence to a YouGov poll that showed a pro-Brexit Labour party finishing third behind a pro-second referendum Liberal Democrat party, should Labour go into the next election backing Brexit and the Liberal Democrats opt to oppose it.

The difficulty for Labour is the calculation for the Liberal Democrats is easy. They are an unabashedly pro-European party, from their activists to their MPs, and the 22 per cent of voters who back a referendum re-run are a significantly larger group than the eight per cent of the vote that Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats got in 2015.

The calculus is more fraught for Labour. In terms of the straight Conservative battle, their best hope is to put the referendum question to bed and focus on issues which don’t divide their coalition in two, as immigration does. But for separate reasons, neither Ukip nor the Liberal Democrats will be keen to let them.

At every point, the referendum question poses difficulties for Labour. Even when neither Ukip nor the Liberal Democrats take seats from them directly, they can hurt them badly, allowing the Conservatives to come through the middle.

The big problem is that the stance that makes sense in terms of maintaining party unity is to try to run on a ticket of moving past the referendum and focussing on the party’s core issues of social justice, better public services and redistribution.

But the trouble with that approach is that it’s alarmingly similar to the one favoured by Kezia Dugdale and Scottish Labour in 2016, who tried to make the election about public services, not the constitution. They came third, behind a Conservative party that ran on an explicitly pro-Union platform. The possibility of an English sequel should not be ruled out.  

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.