Morning Call: pick of the comment

The ten must-read pieces from the Sunday papers.

1. Blair v Chilcot. No contest: we and the truth are the losers (Observer)

Andrew Rawnsley says that the ease with which Tony Blair ran rings round the Chilcot inquiry left a bad taste in the mouth. It may now be beyond any earthly power to get a final reckoning from him for Iraq.

2. The patient's on a dripfeed -- cuts now will kill us (Mail on Sunday)

Vince Cable warns that the economy is too fragile to withstand immediate cuts in public spending. But he adds that it is unjust of Labour and the Tories to ring-fence some budgets from cuts and condemn others to deep reductions.

3. Blair will never escape censure on this earth (Sunday Mirror)

The New Statesman editor, Jason Cowley, says that Blair performed brilliantly at the Chilcot inquiry but Iraq remains a terrible legacy for him. Labour has learned the lessons of the war and has a new multilateral foreign policy.

4. Another act in the Leader's Tragedy (Independent on Sunday)

John Rentoul argues that Blair's failure to pay his respects to the fallen at the Chilcot inquiry was a mistake. In order to defend his historical reputation, he needed to engage more with the arguments that informed his judgements.

5. Tony Blair sold the Iraq war on his judgement. His judgement was wrong (Observer)

A leading article in the Observer, which supported the invasion at the time, says that Blair's decision was wrong. The methods used to take Britain to war perverted democracy and the law.

6. The danger for Cameron in a feeble recovery (Sunday Times)

A leader warns the Tories that Labour appears to benefiting from the gradual economic recovery. David Cameron must prevent his party members from being seen as dangerous and irresponsible cutters.

7. It's all aboard the gravy train for Network Rail bosses (Observer)

Nick Cohen argues that Network Rail, where bosses earn up to £1.2m a year, is another example of private affluence at public expense. Britain is the only European country to allow a fragmented privatised rail network.

8. Trust has been the biggest casualty of the Iraq affair (Sunday Telegraph)

Richard Dannatt says that never again must the armed forces be placed in a position where they doubt the integrity of the government.

9. The real north-south divide crippling Britain (Sunday Times)

Rigid national pay scales are undermining public-service reform, argues Alison Wolf. In the coming years, national bargaining will make rational cost-cutting impossible.

10. Inequality in Britain isn't down to class but brains (Sunday Telegraph)

Alasdair Palmer says that IQ, not social class, is the best predictor for income and status.

 

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Scotland's vast deficit remains an obstacle to independence

Though the country's financial position has improved, independence would still risk severe austerity. 

For the SNP, the annual Scottish public spending figures bring good and bad news. The good news, such as it is, is that Scotland's deficit fell by £1.3bn in 2016/17. The bad news is that it remains £13.3bn or 8.3 per cent of GDP – three times the UK figure of 2.4 per cent (£46.2bn) and vastly higher than the white paper's worst case scenario of £5.5bn. 

These figures, it's important to note, include Scotland's geographic share of North Sea oil and gas revenue. The "oil bonus" that the SNP once boasted of has withered since the collapse in commodity prices. Though revenue rose from £56m the previous year to £208m, this remains a fraction of the £8bn recorded in 2011/12. Total public sector revenue was £312 per person below the UK average, while expenditure was £1,437 higher. Though the SNP is playing down the figures as "a snapshot", the white paper unambiguously stated: "GERS [Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland] is the authoritative publication on Scotland’s public finances". 

As before, Nicola Sturgeon has warned of the threat posed by Brexit to the Scottish economy. But the country's black hole means the risks of independence remain immense. As a new state, Scotland would be forced to pay a premium on its debt, resulting in an even greater fiscal gap. Were it to use the pound without permission, with no independent central bank and no lender of last resort, borrowing costs would rise still further. To offset a Greek-style crisis, Scotland would be forced to impose dramatic austerity. 

Sturgeon is undoubtedly right to warn of the risks of Brexit (particularly of the "hard" variety). But for a large number of Scots, this is merely cause to avoid the added turmoil of independence. Though eventual EU membership would benefit Scotland, its UK trade is worth four times as much as that with Europe. 

Of course, for a true nationalist, economics is irrelevant. Independence is a good in itself and sovereignty always trumps prosperity (a point on which Scottish nationalists align with English Brexiteers). But if Scotland is to ever depart the UK, the SNP will need to win over pragmatists, too. In that quest, Scotland's deficit remains a vast obstacle. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.