Is Massachusetts really turning Republican?

Could Scott Brown replace the late Ted Kennedy?

If, like me, you think of Massachusetts as the sort of place where they weigh the Democratic vote, rather than count it, you'll be surprised to read that the state's junior seat in the Senate could be won by an anti-tax, socially conservative Republican.

But with six days to go until voters head to the polls, commentators are taking seriously the possibility that the Republican Scott Brown could replace the late Ted Kennedy.

The speculation was triggered by a series of polls putting Brown within touching distance of the Democratic candidate, Martha Coakley. Coakley's lead has fallen from 30 per cent in October to 15 per cent at the start of this month and has now, according to one poll, evaporated all together.

Brown's progress is even more striking considering he lies well to the right of where successful Massachusetts Republican candidates usually reside. In the past, the party has fielded fiscally conservative but socially liberal candidates, such as the former governer Mitt Romney, whose support for gay rights dogged his campaign for the GOP presidential ticket.

But not only does Coakley oppose same-sex marriage, he supports waterboarding terrorism suspects and has vowed to destroy health-care reform.

Few psephologists predict a Republican victory, and most commentators have dismissed the poll showing Brown ahead by 1 per cent as an outlier. But the hype behind his campaign says much about the desire of the right-wing media to write off Obama's presidency as a failure and to suggest that the Democrats will suffer huge losses in this year's midterms.

Should Brown pull off a victory against the odds, he would be the first Republican to do so since 1947. He has vowed, if elected, to be the "41st" senator: the one who could tip the Senate against health-care reform.

It would be grim indeed if Brown replaced Kennedy and defeated what the late senator described as "the cause of my life".

 

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Paul Nuttall is like his party: sad, desperate and finished

The party hope if they can survive until March 2019, they will grow strong off disillusionment with Brexit. They may not make it until then. 

It’s a measure of how far Ukip have fallen that while Theresa May faced a grilling over her social care U-Turn and Jeremy Corbyn was called to account over his past, the opening sections of Andrew Neill’s interview with Paul Nuttall was about the question of whether or not his party has a future.

The blunt truth is that Ukip faces a battering in this election. They will be blown away in the seats they have put up a candidate in and have pre-emptively retreated from numerous contests across the country.

A party whose leader in Wales once said that climate change was “ridiculous” is now the victim of climate change itself. With Britain heading out of the European Union and Theresa May in Downing Street, it’s difficult to work out what the pressing question in public life to which Ukip is the answer.

Their quest for relevance isn’t helped by Paul Nuttall, who at times tonight cast an unwittingly comic figure. Pressing his case for Ukip’s burka ban, he said earnestly: “For [CCTV] to work, you have to see people’s faces.” It was if he had intended to pick up Nigel Farage’s old dogwhistle and instead put a kazoo to his lips.

Remarks that are, written down, offensive, just carried a stench of desperation. Nuttall’s policy prescriptions – a noun, a verb, and the most rancid comment underneath a Mail article – came across as a cry for attention. Small wonder that senior figures in Ukip expect Nuttall to face a move on his position, though they also expect that he will see off any attempt to remove him from his crown.

But despite his poor performance, Ukip might not be dead yet. There was a gleam of strategy amid the froth from Nuttall in the party’s pledge to oppose any continuing payment to Brussels as part of the Brexit deal, something that May and Corbyn have yet to rule out.

If May does manage to make it back to Downing Street on 8 June, the gap between campaign rhetoric – we’ll have the best Brexit, France will pay for it – and government policy – we’ll pay a one-off bill and continuing contributions if need be – will be fertile territory for Ukip, if they can survive as a going concern politically and financially, until March 2019.

On tonight’s performance, they’ll need a better centre-forward than Paul Nuttall if they are to make it that far. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

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