Morning Call: pick of the comment

The ten must-read pieces from this morning's newspapers

1. This is not class war (Guardian)

The Schools Secretary, Ed Balls, uses the first working day of the new year to launch into pre-election rhetoric. Labour has always fought for the many, not the few, he says, and Tory claims to do the same are a con trick

2. A simple way to keep law and order -- make everyone kiss and cuddle (Telegraph)

Over at the Telegraph, the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, writes a light-hearted piece arguing that people are often frustrated by a complicated justice system when all they want is an apology.

3. China -- handle with care (Daily Telegraph)

The emotional condemnation that followed the execution of Akmal Shaikh is exactly the wrong way to deal with the world's next superpower, writes Malcolm Moore from Shanghai. Britain's tone must emphasise respect, although it may not agree with all of Beijing's policies.

4. The west's preaching to the east must stop (Financial Times)

Meanwhile, at the FT, Ronnie Chan argues that the west must get used to the new global reality -- it will not be as dominant as it was in the past, which could result in a better and safer world.

5. The world must tread carefully in Yemen (Independent)

The terror threat from Yemen cannot be ignored, but other countries must ensure that, before anything else, they do not make matters worse.

6. The war on terror has been about scaring people, not protecting them (Guardian)

The ease with which the plane bomber could operate exposes the vacuity and recklessness at the heart of the US response to 9/11, says Gary Younge. Measures have done little to protect us, but much to radicalise ever-growing numbers of people.

7. Britain doesn't need a dose of shock therapy (Times)

Commentary on Britain's economy has come to resemble tabloid reporting on the World Cup, argues Bill Emmott. We'll have to endure some pain over the next few years, but ignore the pundits -- the economy isn't a basket case.

8. Well done, P D James. But will the BBC get the message? (Independent)

Yasmin Alibhai-Brown says she loves the BBC, but the most prestigious political programmes and documentaries are not open to "people like us".

9. Belching cows can help to rescue our planet (Times)

Although the prodigious methane output of cattle is bad for the environment, Graham Harvey puts forward the argument that their grazing on grass will soak up carbon.

10. Unlearnt lessons of the Great Depression (Financial Times)

The Princeton academic Harold James analyses parallels between now and the Great Depression of the 1930s, and considers the lessons we should learn from this.

 

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Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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