Morning Call: pick of the comment

The ten must-read pieces from this morning's papers

1. Swine flu was as elusive as WMDs. The real threat is mad scientist syndrome (Guardian)

"Remember the warnings of 65,000 dead?" asks Simon Jenkins. Health chiefs should admit they were wrong -- yet again -- about a global pandemic.

2. John Denham's right: It's class, not race, that determines Britain's have-nots (Daily Telegraph)

White working-class anger has become a force that no politician can ignore, says Andrew Gilligan. To tackle it, we must talk about it.

3. Race to the bottom (Times)

The Times leading article agrees that John Denham was right to say that class matters more for life chances than racial origin. But his statement is a shocking indictment of a failure to enable social mobility.

4. Cameronomics have been tried in Ireland -- and the result? (Independent)

Johann Hari looks at the collapse of the Irish model of low tax and almost total deregulation. Following suit by slashing spending would be a disaster, but Labour has not argued the case for Keynsian economics.

5. Liberty and mendacity (Guardian)

The Tories pledge to replace the Human Rights Act. Their position just doesn't add up, says Charles Falconer QC, and it puts Britain's reputation at risk.

6. Chilcot inquiry unlikely to find the smoking gun that does for Blair (Daily Telegraph)

Former officials' outbursts -- speculative, rather than factual -- have brought us no nearer to knowing the truth about the invasion of Iraq, says Con Coughlin.

7. An Islamic girls' school top of the tables? (Times)

The secret of success is the same for all faith schools, says Jack Straw, following the league table success of the Tauheedul Islam school in his Blackburn constituency.

8. Here's one way to reconnect voters (Independent)

Andreas Whittam Smith attends a "deliberative poll", a subversive form of political marketing that yields surprising results.

9. The Haiti quake must not be dismissed as an "act of God" (Guardian)

Brian Tucker argues that this catastrophe was foreseeable, and suggests that we spend one-tenth of the disaster fund on preparing for future earthquakes.

10. The irresistible rise of the aid industry (Times)

Meanwhile, at the Times, Ross Clark worries about the millions who will give money to victims of the earthquake. Will their cash get to the right place?

 

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Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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