Morning Call: pick of the comment

The ten must-read pieces from this morning's papers

1. Swine flu was as elusive as WMDs. The real threat is mad scientist syndrome (Guardian)

"Remember the warnings of 65,000 dead?" asks Simon Jenkins. Health chiefs should admit they were wrong -- yet again -- about a global pandemic.

2. John Denham's right: It's class, not race, that determines Britain's have-nots (Daily Telegraph)

White working-class anger has become a force that no politician can ignore, says Andrew Gilligan. To tackle it, we must talk about it.

3. Race to the bottom (Times)

The Times leading article agrees that John Denham was right to say that class matters more for life chances than racial origin. But his statement is a shocking indictment of a failure to enable social mobility.

4. Cameronomics have been tried in Ireland -- and the result? (Independent)

Johann Hari looks at the collapse of the Irish model of low tax and almost total deregulation. Following suit by slashing spending would be a disaster, but Labour has not argued the case for Keynsian economics.

5. Liberty and mendacity (Guardian)

The Tories pledge to replace the Human Rights Act. Their position just doesn't add up, says Charles Falconer QC, and it puts Britain's reputation at risk.

6. Chilcot inquiry unlikely to find the smoking gun that does for Blair (Daily Telegraph)

Former officials' outbursts -- speculative, rather than factual -- have brought us no nearer to knowing the truth about the invasion of Iraq, says Con Coughlin.

7. An Islamic girls' school top of the tables? (Times)

The secret of success is the same for all faith schools, says Jack Straw, following the league table success of the Tauheedul Islam school in his Blackburn constituency.

8. Here's one way to reconnect voters (Independent)

Andreas Whittam Smith attends a "deliberative poll", a subversive form of political marketing that yields surprising results.

9. The Haiti quake must not be dismissed as an "act of God" (Guardian)

Brian Tucker argues that this catastrophe was foreseeable, and suggests that we spend one-tenth of the disaster fund on preparing for future earthquakes.

10. The irresistible rise of the aid industry (Times)

Meanwhile, at the Times, Ross Clark worries about the millions who will give money to victims of the earthquake. Will their cash get to the right place?

 

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Can Philip Hammond save the Conservatives from public anger at their DUP deal?

The Chancellor has the wriggle room to get close to the DUP's spending increase – but emotion matters more than facts in politics.

The magic money tree exists, and it is growing in Northern Ireland. That’s the attack line that Labour will throw at Theresa May in the wake of her £1bn deal with the DUP to keep her party in office.

It’s worth noting that while £1bn is a big deal in terms of Northern Ireland’s budget – just a touch under £10bn in 2016/17 – as far as the total expenditure of the British government goes, it’s peanuts.

The British government spent £778bn last year – we’re talking about spending an amount of money in Northern Ireland over the course of two years that the NHS loses in pen theft over the course of one in England. To match the increase in relative terms, you’d be looking at a £35bn increase in spending.

But, of course, political arguments are about gut instinct rather than actual numbers. The perception that the streets of Antrim are being paved by gold while the public realm in England, Scotland and Wales falls into disrepair is a real danger to the Conservatives.

But the good news for them is that last year Philip Hammond tweaked his targets to give himself greater headroom in case of a Brexit shock. Now the Tories have experienced a shock of a different kind – a Corbyn shock. That shock was partly due to the Labour leader’s good campaign and May’s bad campaign, but it was also powered by anger at cuts to schools and anger among NHS workers at Jeremy Hunt’s stewardship of the NHS. Conservative MPs have already made it clear to May that the party must not go to the country again while defending cuts to school spending.

Hammond can get to slightly under that £35bn and still stick to his targets. That will mean that the DUP still get to rave about their higher-than-average increase, while avoiding another election in which cuts to schools are front-and-centre. But whether that deprives Labour of their “cuts for you, but not for them” attack line is another question entirely. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.

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