Morning Call: pick of the comment

The ten-must read pieces from this morning's papers

1. If you're disillusioned with Obama, you don't understand how he won (Guardian)

Gary Younge says that the distance between the aspirations Barack Obama raised and his record a year on is the distinction between the electoral and the political. Now he must move beyond lofty rhetoric to make a real difference.

2. Gordon Brown's election strategy is doomed, but you have to admire the cheek of it (Daily Telegraph)

The PM's bare-faced efforts to scare Mondeo Man away from the Tories will make this a roller-coaster election, says Matthew d'Ancona, discussing Brown's speech at the Fabian New Year Conference.

3. Don't blame the Haitians for doubting US promises (Independent)

Isabel Hilton asks whether the fate of this quake-ravaged nation will once again be decided by outsiders, and looks at its history to understand the context.

4. Fear of the poor is hampering Haiti rescue (Times)

Meanwhile, at the Times, Linda Polman argues that one reason aid is taking so long to get to those in need is that American views rule amid the rubble of Port-au-Prince.

5. Flu, fear and floods: how to avoid excessive precaution (Financial Times)

Money spent on preparing for disasters that do not occur -- or have a lower impact than anticipated -- is not all wasted, say Andrew Jack and Clive Cookson.

6. Polls dictate the state of play. And sometimes get it wrong (Guardian)

Julian Glover looks at the British poll, saying that the possibility of error in tracking voting intentions is increased by a spiral of silence. Labour shouldn't write off the election yet.

7. Put happiness on the election agenda (Independent)

We should consider the effect of policies on people's well-being, says Geoff Mulgan of the Young Foundation, citing research showing that public policy which considers happiness is much more effective.

8. They know it's all over bar the shouting (Times)

William Rees-Mogg discusses a new, critical report by the Institute for Government. After 13 years of personal infighting, even this academic study says, No 10 is out of control.

9. The full, sapping cost of the Blair-Brown war is now clear (Guardian)

Over at the Guardian, Jackie Ashley largely agrees. She says there are late signs of life, but years of infighting have drained Labour of the energy, ingenuity and imagination to rule.

10. A tale of two types of city (Independent)

The Independent's leading article discusses the widening economic gap between different conurbations in the UK.

 

Follow the New Statesman team on Twitter.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
Show Hide image

Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

0800 7318496