How was Labour polling before Brown?

Jack Straw was wrong to claim "the polls are better now"

One of the most curious cabinet statements issued in support of Gordon Brown during the coup attempt was that of Jack Straw.

He said:

The polls are better now than they were immediately before Gordon Brown took over. Our fortunes are linked to the fortunes of the country and indeed the economy . . . I do not think there is an issue about the direction that Gordon Brown and the cabinet and the government as a whole are trying to lead this country.

Straw is renowned as the cabinet's top poll-watcher, but I've dug out the figures from UK Polling Report and he's wrong. The final poll before Brown took office on 27 June 2007 put Labour on 32 per cent, 5 points behind the Conservatives. That's a better result than the Observer poll late last year which put Labour 6 points behind the Tories and provoked such euphoria among Labour activists.

Another poll, carried out by Ipsos-MORI a week before Brown took over, actually put Labour 3 points ahead of the Tories. Throughout May and June the party regularly polled only 2 or 3 points behind the Tories, enough to make Labour the largest single party in a hung parliament.

By comparison, the most recent polls on the day Straw spoke gave the Conservatives a lead of 9 to 10 points.

The casual belief that Labour became fantastically unpopular under Tony Blair is not supported by the evidence. It was Blair's unpopularity with Labour MPs that ensured his political death.

Here are the full figures from June:

24/06/07

Communicate/Independent: Con (37%) Lab (32%) Lib Dems (18%)

20/06/07

Ipsos-MORI/Observer: Lab (39%) Con (36%) Lib Dems (15%)

15/06/07

YouGov/Sunday Times: Con (37%) Lab (35%) Lib Dems (14%)

03/06/07

Populus/Times: Con (36%) Lab (33%) Lib Dems (17%)

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Election results in Wales: Labour on course to remain the largest party

Despite a shock victory for Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood, Welsh Labour will be able to govern without a coalition.

Labour have posted good results in Wales, where the party remains on course to be the controlling force in the Welsh Assembly.

At the time of writing, Carwyn Jones’ party has 24 of the 40 constituency seats, with Plaid Cymru a distant second on 6 and the Conservatives on 5. Among Labour’s notable holds was Gower, which the party lost narrowly at a Westminster level in the 2015 general election by just 27 votes.

There was a surprise victory for Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood in Rhondda, where she defeated Labour cabinet member Leighton Andrews with a swing of 24 per cent. Speaking about the result, a spokesperson for Welsh Labour said:

“The Rhondda result is a really tough for us – we’ve lost a great Minister and one of the most respected politicians in Wales. Clearly the huge national profile afforded to Leanne Wood has had an impact, and Plaid seem to have won this seat at the cost of making progress anywhere else in Wales.

“The other results so far have been good. In particular where we are fighting the Tories it shows the local campaigns have been successful.”

Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Kirsty Williams held on to her seat in Brecon and Radnorshire, while Ukip have yet to win any seats (although they are likely to get a few on the regional list).