Defence spending will fall -- and rightly so

Britain, a warrior nation, will be forced to take a more pragmatic approach

All governments are reluctant to cut defence spending, or rather be seen to do so. With Britain's self-image as a warrior nation and its belief that its armed forces really are "the best in the world", no politician will freely admit to reducing the defence budget.

But it is increasingly clear that the next government will have to make cuts of roughly 10-15 per cent in real terms. Even the Tories, who still see themselves as the party of the armed forces, will have to slash the defence budget if they are to maintain their commitment to ringfence health and international development spending.

The latest report from the Royal United Services Institute shows how these cuts could shrink the armed forces by up to a fifth (see graph). Although we can expect no mainstream Labour or Tory figure to make it, there is a strong case, given the £178bn Budget deficit, for cutting defence spending.

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Data published by the Stockholm Peace Research Institute in 2009 placed the UK fourth in a table of the top ten military spenders in current US dollars. The US led the table, spending $607bn on defence, with China in second place, spending $84.9bn. France came in third place ($65.7bn) and the UK was just behind with $65.3bn. British defence spending as a percentage of GDP is 2.6 per cent.

Many will assume that Britain should fight to maintain its position in the international pecking order, but that ignores an alternative approach. Instead of struggling to project power abroad, we should focus on pursuing fairness at home. This means prioritising spending on education, health and anti-poverty measures.

In the post-recession world, this sceptred isle will be forced to become a more pragmatic and modest nation. The £20bn renewal of Trident, little more than a national virility symbol, must be cancelled. Military intervention abroad, humanitarian or otherwise, will become increasingly unthinkable.

It is a case that Labour should be prepared to make. As James Purnell wrote in his excellent Guardian article this week, by conceding that major spending cuts are needed in some areas, the government will be in a better position to argue that the deficit must not be cut at a rate that threatens economic recovery. Let's hope that Labour's "radical manifesto" reflects this truth.

 

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Angela Rayner - from teenage mum to the woman who could unify Labour

Corbyn-supporting Rayner mentioned Tony Blair in her speech. 

For those at the Labour party conference feeling pessimistic this September, Angela Rayner’s speech on education may be a rare moment of hope. 

Not only did the shadow education secretary capitalise on one of the few issues uniting the party – opposition to grammar schools – and chart a return to left-wing policies, but she did so while paying tribute to the New Labour legacy. 

Rayner grew up on a Stockport council estate, raised by a mother who could not read nor write. She was, she reminded conference, someone who left school a no-hoper. 

"I left school at 16 pregnant and with no qualifications. Some may argue I was not a great role model for young people. The direction of my life was already set.

"But something happened. Labour's Sure Start centres gave me and my friends, and our children, the support we needed to grow and develop."

Rayner has shown complete loyalty to Jeremy Corbyn throughout the summer, taking two briefs in the depopulated shadow cabinet and speaking at his campaign events.

Nevertheless, as someone who practically benefited from Labour’s policies during its time in government, she is unapologetic about its legacy. She even mentioned the unmentionable, declaring: “Tony Blair talked about education, education, education. Theresa May wants segregation, segregation, segregation.”

As for Rayner's policies, a certain amount of realism underpins her rhetoric. She wants to bring back maintenance grants for low-income students, and the Educational Maintenance Allowance for those in further education. 

But she is not just offering a sop to the middle class. A new childcare taskforce will focus on early education, which she describes as “the most effective drivers of social mobility”. 

Rayner pledged to “put as much effort into expanding, technical, vocational education and meaningful apprenticeships, as we did with higher education”. She declared: "The snobbery about vocational education must end."

Tory critics have questioned the ability of a woman who left school at 16 to be an education secretary, Rayner acknowledged. “I may not have a degree - but I have a Masters in real life,” she said. It could have sounded trite, but her speech delivered the goods. Perhaps she will soon earn her PhD in political instincts too.