Why this half-hearted plot will fail

Barring a major cabinet resignation, Brown is safe

The behaviour of Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt is a fine example of how not to lead a plot. Both have been making the media rounds claiming, absurdly, that their decision to call for a secret ballot on Brown's leadership is not designed to undermine the Prime Minister. Do they really believe that Brown could emerge strengthened from a disruptive ballot? Their refusal to declare which way they would vote is taking the PLP for a bunch of fools.

There are several reasons why this plot is likely to fail. First, the decision to go public strongly suggests they have failed to persuade any cabinet minister to turn against Brown. While the Prime Minister retains the support of cabinet heavweights such as Mandelson, Miliband, Darling and Straw he is likely to survive.

Second, that this latest plot is led by two unambiguous Blairites means the centre left of the party, focused around the Compass group, is unlikely to join in. So long as the rebellion remains confined to the usual suspects -- Charles Clarke, Frank Field, Barry Sheerman -- Brown and his allies can dismiss this as another botched coup.

Third, there remains no pre-eminent, Heseltine-style challenger for disaffected MPs to coalesce around. It is noteworthy that neither Hewitt nor Hoon named an alternative leader.

Finally, as my colleague James Macintyre, who broke the story today, has pointed out, their plot comes after an unusually strong performance by Brown at PMQs, something that is likely to have lifted the mood of backbenchers.

Although he is likely to survive, the latest plot remains a disastrous development for Brown. The Tories and the Lib Dems will declare again and again (and they'll be right) that Labour is a divided party and that the electorate hates divided parties.

The psephological case against Brown remains strong. No prime minister has been as unpopular as him and gone on to win the subsequent election. But at this stage it's hard to see how a prolonged and bitter leadership contest could be anything but damaging for Labour. Should the party wish to avoid a catastrophic defeat at the election it must call time on this pitiful spectacle.

 

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Can Philip Hammond save the Conservatives from public anger at their DUP deal?

The Chancellor has the wriggle room to get close to the DUP's spending increase – but emotion matters more than facts in politics.

The magic money tree exists, and it is growing in Northern Ireland. That’s the attack line that Labour will throw at Theresa May in the wake of her £1bn deal with the DUP to keep her party in office.

It’s worth noting that while £1bn is a big deal in terms of Northern Ireland’s budget – just a touch under £10bn in 2016/17 – as far as the total expenditure of the British government goes, it’s peanuts.

The British government spent £778bn last year – we’re talking about spending an amount of money in Northern Ireland over the course of two years that the NHS loses in pen theft over the course of one in England. To match the increase in relative terms, you’d be looking at a £35bn increase in spending.

But, of course, political arguments are about gut instinct rather than actual numbers. The perception that the streets of Antrim are being paved by gold while the public realm in England, Scotland and Wales falls into disrepair is a real danger to the Conservatives.

But the good news for them is that last year Philip Hammond tweaked his targets to give himself greater headroom in case of a Brexit shock. Now the Tories have experienced a shock of a different kind – a Corbyn shock. That shock was partly due to the Labour leader’s good campaign and May’s bad campaign, but it was also powered by anger at cuts to schools and anger among NHS workers at Jeremy Hunt’s stewardship of the NHS. Conservative MPs have already made it clear to May that the party must not go to the country again while defending cuts to school spending.

Hammond can get to slightly under that £35bn and still stick to his targets. That will mean that the DUP still get to rave about their higher-than-average increase, while avoiding another election in which cuts to schools are front-and-centre. But whether that deprives Labour of their “cuts for you, but not for them” attack line is another question entirely. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.

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