The plot against Brown thickens

Will the rebels get the job done?

There have been rumours of one final rebellion against Gordon Brown all week and now it's said to have reached cabinet level. Paul Waugh of the Evening Standard has the story. He says:

In the last few hours, the rumours have been swirling around again that a cabinet minister could quit in protest at Gordon's leadership. The plotters have certainly asked a sympathetic minister to do so -- but whether he will do so is another matter.

Channel 4's Gary Gibbon adds:

Now I hear that phones ran hot between backbench MPs, junior ministers and at least two cabinet members, it is claimed, over the Christmas break about how to bring the PM down.

If the rebels do make their move, let's hope they finish the job this time. A failed rebellion would be the worst of all possible outcomes for Labour. I'm convinced that the absence of a pre-eminent, Heseltine-style challenger remains a fatal stumbling block to a successful putsch.

But it's not surprising that significant parts of the PLP are considering one last heave against Brown. The psephological case against the PM remains formidable. As I've noted before, no prime minister as unpopular as him has gone on to win the subsequent election. Philip Gould has told the cabinet that Labour could win only if it replaced Brown.

The best argument I've heard for removing Brown is that a new leader will provide a poll bounce for Labour at just the moment the party needs it most. Had Brown been forced out last summer, the bounce would have ended by the election.

I expect more backbenchers to take up this argument in the coming days.

 

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Theresa May is paying the price for mismanaging Boris Johnson

The Foreign Secretary's bruised ego may end up destroying Theresa May. 

And to think that Theresa May scheduled her big speech for this Friday to make sure that Conservative party conference wouldn’t be dominated by the matter of Brexit. Now, thanks to Boris Johnson, it won’t just be her conference, but Labour’s, which is overshadowed by Brexit in general and Tory in-fighting in particular. (One imagines that the Labour leadership will find a way to cope somehow.)

May is paying the price for mismanaging Johnson during her period of political hegemony after she became leader. After he was betrayed by Michael Gove and lacking any particular faction in the parliamentary party, she brought him back from the brink of political death by making him Foreign Secretary, but also used her strength and his weakness to shrink his empire.

The Foreign Office had its responsibility for negotiating Brexit hived off to the newly-created Department for Exiting the European Union (Dexeu) and for navigating post-Brexit trade deals to the Department of International Trade. Johnson was given control of one of the great offices of state, but with no responsibility at all for the greatest foreign policy challenge since the Second World War.

Adding to his discomfort, the new Foreign Secretary was regularly the subject of jokes from the Prime Minister and cabinet colleagues. May likened him to a dog that had to be put down. Philip Hammond quipped about him during his joke-fuelled 2017 Budget. All of which gave Johnson’s allies the impression that Johnson-hunting was a licensed sport as far as Downing Street was concerned. He was then shut out of the election campaign and has continued to be a marginalised figure even as the disappointing election result forced May to involve the wider cabinet in policymaking.

His sense of exclusion from the discussions around May’s Florence speech only added to his sense of isolation. May forgot that if you aren’t going to kill, don’t wound: now, thanks to her lost majority, she can’t afford to put any of the Brexiteers out in the cold, and Johnson is once again where he wants to be: centre-stage. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.