Afghanistan: the ethnic mix

Know your Pashtuns from your Tajiks and Uzbeks.

As 70 nations continue talking in London about the future of the country, here are some things you may not know about Afghanistan:

Ethnic mix

Pashtun: The dominant ethnic group, concentrated in the south-eastern regions, the Pashtuns furnish the Taliban with more recruits than any other group. Only 30% of the Afghan National Army's trainees are Pashtun, 8% less than 2003 guidelines.

Tajik: Dari speakers of Iranian origin, concentrated in the north-east, Tajiks occupy many public roles in modern Afghanistan and account for 41% of all trained ANA troops.

Uzbek: The main Turkic people of Afghanistan, found in the northern regions; usually speak both Dari and Uzbek.

 

Hazara: Farsi speakers, mainly of the Hazarajat region. Set apart from the Sunni majority by their Shia beliefs.

Aimak: Dari speakers who inhabit the north-western highlands of Afghanistan and have a semi-nomadic lifestyle. Closely related to the Hazara; the main difference is religious.

Turkmen: Traditionally nomadic people of Turkic origin, closely related to the Uzbeks.

Baloch: A pastoral and desert-dwelling group of Iranian ethnicity, found in the south.

Other: Include Nuristanis and the Kirghiz.

 

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Who will win the Copeland by-election?

Labour face a tricky task in holding onto the seat. 

What’s the Copeland by-election about? That’s the question that will decide who wins it.

The Conservatives want it to be about the nuclear industry, which is the seat’s biggest employer, and Jeremy Corbyn’s long history of opposition to nuclear power.

Labour want it to be about the difficulties of the NHS in Cumbria in general and the future of West Cumberland Hospital in particular.

Who’s winning? Neither party is confident of victory but both sides think it will be close. That Theresa May has visited is a sign of the confidence in Conservative headquarters that, win or lose, Labour will not increase its majority from the six-point lead it held over the Conservatives in May 2015. (It’s always more instructive to talk about vote share rather than raw numbers, in by-elections in particular.)

But her visit may have been counterproductive. Yes, she is the most popular politician in Britain according to all the polls, but in visiting she has added fuel to the fire of Labour’s message that the Conservatives are keeping an anxious eye on the outcome.

Labour strategists feared that “the oxygen” would come out of the campaign if May used her visit to offer a guarantee about West Cumberland Hospital. Instead, she refused to answer, merely hyping up the issue further.

The party is nervous that opposition to Corbyn is going to supress turnout among their voters, but on the Conservative side, there is considerable irritation that May’s visit has made their task harder, too.

Voters know the difference between a by-election and a general election and my hunch is that people will get they can have a free hit on the health question without risking the future of the nuclear factory. That Corbyn has U-Turned on nuclear power only helps.

I said last week that if I knew what the local paper would look like between now and then I would be able to call the outcome. Today the West Cumbria News & Star leads with Downing Street’s refusal to answer questions about West Cumberland Hospital. All the signs favour Labour. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.