How China ensured it was an unfair COP
Here's what really happened to scupper the climate summit
By Mark Lynas Published 23 December 2009 9:53
The truth about what happened at Copenhagen will not be easy for many people to hear, because it challenges everything they think they know about the world.
Yes, the "deal" was atrocious -- no long-term targets, no peaking year for emissions, no legally binding framework. What no one seems to properly understand is why such high hopes were dashed with such devastating failure.
The truth is this: a better deal was blocked by powerful nations in the developing world, in particular China. Several of those present in the room as heads of state from more than 20 countries battled it out late into the final night confirm this essential truth, and that Chinese attitudes and behaviour were at times deeply shocking.
Consider that the Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, did not deign to attend the heads of state meeting, instead sending a middle-ranking official to sit at the table with Obama, Merkel, Sarkozy, Australia's Kevin Rudd and leaders from Grenada, Ethiopia, Maldives, Brazil, Mexico and others.
The Chinese have a reputation for being highly status-conscious. There is little doubt that this was a calculated diplomatic slight, aimed, perhaps, at the American president. Instead, all these world leaders, Obama included, were forced to wait as the Chinese delegate went to consult his superiors, or alternatively to attend separate bilaterals with the Chinese premier as he held court in a nearby luxury hotel.
I was attached to one of the delegations whose head of government attended nearly all the top-level negotiations among leaders and, as senior adviser, I had the opportunity to be present in the room where the intense top-level negotiations took place. Moreover, what took place in the heads of state meeting room and other parallel negotiations is confirmed by multiple high-level sources.
They emphasise that it was the Chinese delegate who insisted on tinkering with the 1.5 degrees Celcius temperature target -- crucial to the survival of small-island states -- until it was largely meaningless. China and India together also removed any mention of a peaking year for emissions (essential to keep temperature rises below even two degrees) or any long-term target for global emissions reductions by 2050, fearing that this would threaten their growth.
Most egregiously, it was China that insisted also on the removal of any mention even of rich countries' own targets -- initially suggested as 80 per cent by 2050. It is known that Angela Merkel in particular was incensed that even previously agreed and publicly announced targets by industrialised countries should also be excised from the text. Australia's Kevin Rudd, too, protested strongly. But China stood firm and the targets disappeared.
When the text became public, it was western leaders who stood excoriated for having "weakened" the Copenhagen Accord. At the final conference plenary after the announcement of the "deal", the Sudanese delegate Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping (leader of the G77 and China group of developing countries) tore the agreement apart, suggesting that the weakness of its targets made it "murderous" to Africans.
What he did not mention was that it was his patrons, the Chinese (who have large investments in Sudan), who had gutted the much stronger, original deal pushed by the western leaders in the first place. Di-Aping's comparison of the accord with the Holocaust was not just offensive and inappropriate, it was also grimly ironic, given that Sudan's own head of state was unable to attend the meeting because he has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes.
One of the heroes of the hour was our own Ed Miliband, who saved the conference from certain failure by intervening to move an adjournment seconds before the Danish prime minister (who was chairing) was about to throw in the towel. Gordon Brown, too, emerges with credit, having kept the $100bn financing provision for developing nations in the final text.
So what is China's game? Clearly the country is beginning to assume the mantle of a global superpower, and the picture is not pretty. Any suggestions of constraints on its coal-based growth are roundly rejected. It was clear to me that a collapse of the entire process would also have been just fine with China in particular, and probably India as well.
If this is how China plans to use its growing might over future years and decades, we are all in deep trouble. I came to Copenhagen full of optimism and hope. I left with a sense of deep foreboding and near despair.
A version of this piece by Mark Lynas will appear in the 4 January 2010 issue of the New Statesman.
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39 comments
Mark also has a piece on the Guardian website to this effect. In that piece he says:
"The US had ... put serious cuts on the table for the first time (17% below 2005 levels by 2020), and was obviously prepared to up its offer."
And that's how you know this account is not reliable. Cuts are measured by everyone else on 1990 levels, not 2005 levels. The science tells us we need a minimum 40% cut on 1990 levels at least to give us a fighting chance of limiting warming to 2 degrees.
Know how the US offer of 17% on 2005 levels translates to 1990 levels? Is it 40%? Is it even 17%? Is it f*ck. Its four. Four per cent. Consider that in light of the US's historic responsibility for climate change. This Mark calls serious (while lecturing "leftists" about their starry eyed view of developing countries).
The US offered an emissions cut of 4% on 1990 levels when well over 40% was needed to reach the 2 degree target. Mark says it is "obvious" that offer would be upped. What? By a factor of 10? In fact, Obama stated flat out in his Copenhagen speech that the US position was was non-negotiable. Blaming China for scuppering a "deal" with a 2 degree target when we know full well that the deal would have been worthless given the pathetic cuts offered by Washington is not exactly giving the whole story is it?
Wittingly or not, Mark is relaying Western spin. The US and the UK have been desperate to blame China ever since Copenhagen. Obama was blaming China from the minute he arrived there, so the spin was in full flow even before the talks were done. And this after 2 weeks of the US working hard to ditch Kyoto and the fundamental principle it enshrined that those who did the polluting historically were those with the prime responsibility for dealing with it. Oh yeah, Mark didn't mention that either did he? Because that did more than anything to poison the atmosphere and stiffen the resolve of the G-77 not to be shafted - again - by the West.
Now by all means blame China for what its responsible for. I'm under no illusions about them, or India and its uniquely vile political class. There's plenty of blame to go around. But the idea that the nasty Chinese spoilt the brave idealistic Westerners' great humanitarian bid to deal seriously with climate change is demonstrable nonsense. What's more, it is very much in line with the propaganda campaign now underway from Western governments to avoid taking responsiblity for their own role in imposing a death sentence on millions in the developing world and consigning future generations to catastrophe. A progressive magazine like the NS should have no part of that whatsoever.
David Wearing said,
"But the idea that the nasty Chinese spoilt the brave idealistic Westerners' great humanitarian bid to deal seriously with climate change is demonstrable nonsense."
Hear, hear! We all know that 'humanitarianism' is simply un-American.
that's right, monkey...spin the western line
Make a summit like Copenhagen completely transparent and disasters like this one would not have occurred. The problem is that for most developed and developing countries is was more important what to tell the media and their own people. It is illogical to assume that only China is to blame for the summit's failure. Why would the whole western world commit political suicide without any gain? The remaining countries could have agreed to to almost everything without China and make it legally binding once China agrees to it in the future, thus making it clear who is to blame. Why did that not happen? Isn't it obvious that all large carbon-dioxide producing countries profit from the outcome? That includes China of course, but also dozens of other countries.
At worst, China turned a terrible deal into no deal at all. If it had gone along with the offer on the table from the US that Lynas calls serious then we wouldn't be debating why Copenhagen failed, we'd be debating what to do now that a terrible deal is locked in until 2020. Lynas has been on the way out since he said equity was the problem and we should limit immigration, but this article does provide a lesson in how climate desperation can take you down a political cul-de-sac: if you focus exclusively on cutting carbon emissions, then developing countries developing their way out of poverty quickly becomes a bad thing. Even if you adopt Lynas's racist colonial mindset, you're never going to get developing countries to agree not to develop as quickly as possible. So the only credible position is to demand that rich countries come up with serious offers to show the way. The fact that Lynas feels free to publicly blame China while advising the Government of the Maldives shows who's still got the real power and influence. This is the nail in Lynas's coffin as a credible commentator.
The author tries to make a name for himself writing this controversial article. The outcome would have been no deal if not for China. Did he really think any drastic move will get past the US Senate? He's a sellout to the Western spinning machine.
China should ban this dude from entering the country for life.
I'm utterly disappointed at New Statesman re-posting this piece of garbage.
Who the eff is he, by the way?
Go over to the Chinese website, there are tons of views to the contrary. They must be true too?
I'm glad that someone put the brakes to an enormously expensive approach to solving an unsolvable, naturally occuring, temperature variation. When we were children, my aging generation was told about Chicken Little and how the sky was falling. The lesson didn't seem to stick. Merry Christmas to all...each and every one.
COP15 was a disaster, both for science, and international peace. The CRU releases exposed either fraud, or false science. It will take a decade to sort out. Few objective educated people now accept that man made emissions are an immediate serious threat to global survival; the projections are based on fudged inaccurate work.
It is dangerous to assembly national leaders, many of whom are mass murderers, to cajole them into agreements which lessen their power. Wars start this way.
We need no 42,000 person conferences again.
So the Chinese wouldn't play ball, and the rest of the world leaders are surprised? What planet are they cooking on?
So the Chinese put a stop to Milliband and Browns's ecomentalist fantasies, gosh what a shame.
"I came to Copenhagen full of optimism and hope. I left with a sense of deep foreboding and near despair."
You mean a small group of journalist and "scientist" couldn't bamboozle the pragmatic Chinese. I am shocked, shocked...
God bless those godless commies for stopping this alarmist nonsense in its tracks.
Those darned US press releases keep turning up.
If anything, China caved into pressure from the rich nations to sign a deal that consigns the poor countries to the stone-age while we do very little indeed. We can't even keep our Kyoto pledges.
http://madammiaow.blogspot.com/2009/12/sinophobia-and-copenhagen-open-le...
China has leaders who reject the fabricated AGW claptrap and look out for the interests of their country.
If only a few other governments would do the same instead of flogging their constituents for their own personal aggrandisement.
Could it be because China's leaders are typically engineers, with an acquaintance with science, unlike the serried ranks of lawyers, economists, and arts grads
that grace western governments and who know nothing of science and little of anything else except how to line their own pockets at the expense of everyone else.
hazel,
Pull your head out of your you-know-what! Please spare me that sob story about "the rest of the world" which only points to those G7 minus Japan when abused by a Westerner like you!
Haven't seen a political assassination for a long time.
"I left with a sense of deep foreboding and near despair." Talk about melodramatic! Do I expect tsunami in 20 minutes?
Freelancer writer? More like "contractor", aka mercenary.
Since the western leaders have abandoned the mantle of leadership on an altar of environ-mental hysteria and eco-illogical hoaxtery, thank the Good Lord for the Chinese and Indians. Yes, they are the leaders of what is left of a sane world. Three cheers...
China was right to block this deal, and the world should be grateful. Anything that slows the escape from poverty--the REAL, PRESENT global crisis--be opposed. And anybody who has lived in China would know that it is an insult for countries where families commonly run three cars to demand that people living on two dollars a day 'share the burden'. Most westerners have no idea just how energy-efficient Chinese already are in their everyday lives, out of sheer necessity. High temp. cooking saves time and hence fuel; public spaces are semi-lit and semi-heated in winter; everybody packs into trains and buses travel, not private cars .. it goes on and on. It is just outrageous to demand further privations when most people in the west do absolute xxxx all individually to reduce their environmental impact. As for Chinese industry, which is indeed energy-wasteful, transfer the tech to them, free, if you really care. This burden belongs on western shoulders.
You wonder what qualified the author to go to Denmark.
Do these NGOs snatch every unemployed English majors off the street, pay them to write whatever they desire? And who are behind those NGOs?
So we have China to thank for the failure of these talks?
Thank you, China!
Thank You PRC for bringing some sense to the AGW nonsense.
What do you call people who won't accept the FACTS? And the FACTS are these: Your little 'Church' in East Anglica is a SHAM. Your Religion of 'CLIMATOLOGY' has been exposed. Done in by THEIR OWN WORDS. Nobody destroys their PROOF. 50 Years of data, DESTROYED, because "there was no room at their new diggs". In other words, it was their LIFES' WORK, or the ping pong table. At least the ping pong table is REAL.
You people need to go out and get a job. And GROW UP.
Actually I suspect this silly conference over a trumped up very questionable "crisis" was doomed from the start. But if China was the one to push it over the edge, then let me add my thanks to them!
- A US citizen who hopes the exposure of fraud at CRU and within the IPCC leads to some real science on this matter, finally.
Thank goodness for everyone seeing through this article for the partisan rubbish and selective 'truths' it is. I am disturbed by those who insist on all this Climate-Change denial. If you are disengaged and feel too apathetic to do anything about it, then admit it. Heck most of us in the West are guilty of that. However to simply deny environmental crisis is at best in bad taste and at worst callous and grossly insensitive to those in the developing nations who are front-row eye witnesses to it. Just because we've had snow recently doesn't mean things aren't going up the creek elsewhere. Oh, the arrogance of parochialism!
Shalom x
And yes, I too was disappointed that original article was published in the New Statesman. Et tu, NS?
This Article is just terrible. It is a particularly vile example of scapegoating and furthermore demonstrates the naivety of a journalist filled with "optimism." Who ever thought world leaders were going to get together in copenhagen to frolic with the trees, was and still is a fool.
No mention of Kyoto or the nations who have contributed the most to global warming, just a rant bordering on racism against the Chinese.
Completely rubbish and racist article.
The Chinese are building infrastructure in Africa, they are not enslaving Africa or stealing its resources.
The author of the article needs to read the History of Western Christian Imperialism in Africa before commenting on others.
Did I read it right-Millipeed and Brun emerged with CREDIT!!!!
Chinese bashing, nothing more.
why is the new statesman attracting so many angry conspiracy trolls?
my government is being run by a group of insane morons who will use any excuse to moralistically intervene with our right to consume whatever we like and who have made a pact with the completely misguided broad scientific community to come up with a plan hatched up by [X]-enemies to destroy our economy and turn us into slaves.
i for one am totally outraged!
roar
Kurus
26 December 2009 at 15:36
"The Chinese are building infrastructure in Africa, they are not enslaving Africa or stealing its resources."
Yes, completely out of the goodness of their hearts, nothing to do with securing resources and affecting price.
Grow up, if America was doing the same thing now, you'd be up in arms quoting 'History of western imperialism' AGAIN.
Heaven forbid it would be Israel selling arms in Dafur and keeping Mugabe's regime affloat, you'd be accusing it of genocide before the week was out.
Thank you China!
Kurus
26 December 2009 at 15:36
"The Chinese are building infrastructure in Africa, they are not enslaving Africa or stealing its resources."
Yes, completely out of the goodness of their hearts, nothing to do with securing resources and affecting price.
Grow up, if America was doing the same thing now, you'd be up in arms quoting 'History of western imperialism' AGAIN.
Heaven forbid it would be Israel selling arms in Dafur and keeping Mugabe's regime affloat, you'd be accusing it of genocide before the week was out.
Greg, at least China didn't pit one against another then rob them blind of their diamonds and mineral resources. Do you think European "help" Africa like a charity? Everyone wants something in return. What are you, 3 years old?
For the love of god mark (just stop)