Super Tuesday: 5 things to watch

The most decisive day yet in the Republican candidates' race for the White House.

Yesterday we posted a Q&A guide to the Super Tuesday procedure. As a recap:

Super Tuesday is the first real test of a candidate's popularity nationwide, and thus many states choose to hold their primary or caucus on that day, in order to play a part in the electability test.

Mitt Romney hopes a strong showing will all but seal the deal for him. For Rick Santorum, Super Tuesday is an opportunity to catch or overtake Romney in the delegate count, or at least take a large chunk out of Romney's lead. For Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, sitting in distant third and fourth place, Super Tuesday, with its hundreds of delegates up for grabs, is an opportunity for both candidates to make upward moves.

Caucuses (3 states): Alaska, 27 delegates; Idaho, 32 delegates; North Dakota, 28 delegates

Primaries (7 states): Georgia, 76 delegates; Massachusetts, 41 delegates; Ohio, 66 delegates; Oklahoma, 43 delegates; Tennessee, 58 delegates; Vermont, 17 delegates; Virginia, 49 delegates

437 delegates are in play; 1,144 are needed to win the party's nomination

Click here to see the votes each candidate has already won

And here's our picks of what to look out for today, and tomorrow morning, as the numbers start to trickle in and the delegate counts pile up, one way or another:

1) Who bags Ohio?

With the second largest block of votes available -- and a high possiblity of the winner-takes-all allocation -- Ohio is today's vital state. Of all 50, it is one of the most politically divided and therefore a hot swing-state come the presidential race in November. As Ohio's residents take to the ballot boxes Romney has the momentum, but four polls show him ahead within the margin of error, and at this stage the 66 votes are not certainly his to call.

Also, as an "open" primary, Ohio's Democrats and Independent voters could take to the polls in an attempt to muddy Republican wishes. That said, the reported surge of Democrats voting for Rick Santorum in Michigan last week did not stop frontrunner Romney comfortably taking the state.

2) The Rick Santorum appeal

Come November if he is to have any feasible shot at the White House, Rick Santorum needs to start broadening his appeal among America's vast demographics. Unsurprisingly, today's southern states Oklahoma and Tennessee -- with their Conservative politics and large evangelical populations -- are inching towards Santorum.

Yet Rick's identity as a man who lives and breathes by his faith -- as well as being politically informed by it -- does not actually appear to be working for him. Exit polls from earlier states show Santorum has lost the Catholic vote in every primary; despite his frequent talk about his upbringing within the Church. His recent backtracking on last week's JFK-vomit comment may be some attempt to appease voters who are particularly sensitive about the assassinated president -- the country's first Catholic commander-in-chief.

3) Gingrich strong at home

The former House Speaker's bumpy campaign has tailed off in recent weeks, though Newt is cruising to a victory in his home state of Georgia. A majority share of the largest single chunk of delegates available today will help the Gingrich campaign, but he will have to come at least second in states besides Oklahoma and Tennessee to hang on in the race much longer.

4) The female vote

As Sam Youngman noted, Mitt Romney has drawn on his Michigan game plan for Super Tuesday by appealing to blue-collar workers and women for their votes:

At every event, with an eye on winning women voters, Romney had his popular wife, Ann, whip up the crowds and emphasize Romney's private-sector experience. Ann Romney called her husband a "turnaround guy."

Rick Santorum, on the other hand, has stuck fast to social issues for some time now; campaigning on faith and contraception over the larger, immediate concern for most Americans: the economy. The success of either man with female voters is hard to predict.

5) What the turnout says of the GOP

Over at Politico, Maggie Haberman points out the race's lingering narrative:

. . . one that began in Iowa and has continued through much of the cycle so far -- the reduced number of voters in some of the primaries and caucuses. A number of analysts have suggested it's clear evidence of an enthusiasm gap -- an idea that seems true in some states but not in others.

Early in the day, Virginia appears to be one of such places. Many towns in the east coast state have reported a painfully slow start to the day and very low enthuasism among self-defining Republicans. In Ohio, too, early voting stands at a third of what it was in the 2008 primary.

Patricia Zengerle's report at the Huffington Post gives some idea of the ways in which the GOP candidates' ever-intensifying rhetoric is turning off their own voters:

[Colleen Wilson] had planned to vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney because of his business experience and ideas for fixing the U.S. economy, but said inflammatory rhetoric at CPAC made her wonder if she could vote for any of the party's candidates this year.

"It scares me how extreme they are on social conservatism," she said. "It wasn't that they didn't believe in gay marriage. It was how vicious and closed minded they were."

Alice Gribbin is a Teaching-Writing Fellow at the Iowa Writers' Workshop. She was formerly the editorial assistant at the New Statesman.

Steve Garry
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The footie is back. Three weeks in and what have we learned so far?

Barcleys, boots and big names... the Prem is back.

Another season, another reason for making whoopee cushions and giving them to Spurs fans to cheer them up during the long winter afternoons ahead. What have we learned so far?

Big names are vital. Just ask the manager of the Man United shop. The arrival of Schneiderlin and Schweinsteiger has done wonders for the sale of repro tops and they’ve run out of letters. Benedict Cumberbatch, please join Carlisle United. They’re desperate for some extra income.

Beards are still in. The whole Prem is bristling with them, the skinniest, weediest player convinced he’s Andrea Pirlo. Even my young friend and neighbour Ed Miliband has grown a beard, according to his holiday snaps. Sign him.

Boots Not always had my best specs on, but here and abroad I detect a new form of bootee creeping in – slightly higher on the ankle, not heavy-plated as in the old days but very light, probably made from the bums of newborn babies.

Barclays Still driving me mad. Now it’s screaming from the perimeter boards that it’s “Championing the true Spirit of the Game”. What the hell does that mean? Thank God this is its last season as proud sponsor of the Prem.

Pitches Some groundsmen have clearly been on the weeds. How else can you explain the Stoke pitch suddenly having concentric circles, while Southampton and Portsmouth have acquired tartan stripes? Go easy on the mowers, chaps. Footballers find it hard enough to pass in straight lines.

Strips Have you seen the Everton third kit top? Like a cheap market-stall T-shirt, but the colour, my dears, the colour is gorgeous – it’s Thames green. Yes, the very same we painted our front door back in the Seventies. The whole street copied, then le toot middle classes everywhere.

Scott Spedding Which international team do you think he plays for? I switched on the telly to find it was rugby, heard his name and thought, goodo, must be Scotland, come on, Scotland. Turned out to be the England-France game. Hmm, must be a member of that famous Cumbrian family, the Speddings from Mirehouse, where Tennyson imagined King Arthur’s Excalibur coming out the lake. Blow me, Scott Spedding turns out to be a Frenchman. Though he only acquired French citizenship last year, having been born and bred in South Africa. What’s in a name, eh?

Footballers are just so last season. Wayne Rooney and Harry Kane can’t score. The really good ones won’t come here – all we get is the crocks, the elderly, the bench-warmers, yet still we look to them to be our saviour. Oh my God, let’s hope we sign Falcao, he’s a genius, will make all the difference, so prayed all the Man United fans. Hold on: Chelsea fans. I’ve forgotten now where he went. They seek him here, they seek him there, is he alive or on the stairs, who feckin’ cares?

John Stones of Everton – brilliant season so far, now he is a genius, the solution to all of Chelsea’s problems, the heir to John Terry, captain of England for decades. Once he gets out of short trousers and learns to tie his own laces . . .

Managers are the real interest. So refreshing to have three young British managers in the Prem – Alex Neil at Norwich (34), Eddie Howe at Bournemouth (37) and that old hand at Swansea, Garry Monk, (36). Young Master Howe looks like a ball boy. Or a tea boy.

Mourinho is, of course, the main attraction. He has given us the best start to any of his seasons on this planet. Can you ever take your eyes off him? That handsome hooded look, that sarcastic sneer, the imperious hand in the air – and in his hair – all those languages, he’s so clearly brilliant, and yet, like many clever people, often lacking in common sense. How could he come down so heavily on Eva Carneiro, his Chelsea doctor? Just because you’re losing? Yes, José has been the best fun so far – plus Chelsea’s poor start. God, please don’t let him fall out with Abramovich. José, we need you.

Hunter Davies is a journalist, broadcaster and profilic author perhaps best known for writing about the Beatles. He is an ardent Tottenham fan and writes a regular column on football for the New Statesman.

This article first appeared in the 27 August 2015 issue of the New Statesman, Isis and the new barbarism