Jeb Bush endorses Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney's good week just got better with a coveted endorsement from former Florida governor Jeb Bush.

The brother and son of former presidents George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush said that now is the time for Republican voters to "to unite behind Governor Romney and take our message of fiscal conservatism and job creation to all voters this fall."

This week, Romney has won primary elections in both Puerto Rico and Illinois, expanding his lead over Rick Santorum by 60 delegates and putting him 300 delegates ahead of the former Senator. Romney has now amassed a total of 563 delegates out of the 1,144 needed to clinch the Republican nomination and take on President Obama in November's general election.

Jeb Bush, who spent eight years as the governor of Florida, from 1998 to 2006, is a Republican heavyweight whom many assumed would enter the nomination race. His father, former President George H.W. Bush, also endorsed Romney in December.

Romney has the most endorsements in the race from elected officials, including former governors Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman, both of whom dropped out of the nomination fight. He also boasts an endorsement from New Jersey governor Chris Christie, whom many Republicans also hoped would throw his hat in the ring.

Fellow wannabe nominees Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul have, however, vowed to stay in the race, with Gingrich's spokesman, R.C. Hammond, reportedly stating that Bush's endorsement is merely the "the completion of the establishment trifecta", in reference to Bush's father and former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole.

 

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What does François Bayrou's endorsement of Emmanuel Macron mean for the French presidential race?

The support of the perennial candidate for President will boost Macron's morale but won't transform his electoral standing. 

François Bayrou, the leader of the centrist Democratic Movement and a candidate for the French presidency in 2007 and 2012, has endorsed Emmanuel Macron’s bid for the presidency.

What does it mean for the presidential race?  Under the rules of the French electoral system, if no candidate secures more than half the vote in the first round, the top two go through to a run-off.

Since 2013, Marine Le Pen has consistently led in the first round before going down to defeat in the second, regardless of the identity of her opponents, according to the polls.

However, national crises – such as terror attacks or the recent riots following the brutal arrest of a 22-year-old black man, who was sodomised with a police baton – do result in a boost for Le Pen’s standing, as does the ongoing “Penelopegate” scandal about the finances of the centre-right candidate, François Fillon.

Macron performs the most strongly of any candidate in the second round but struggles to make it into the top two in the first. Having eked out a clear lead in second place ahead of Fillon in the wake of Penelopegate, Macron’s lead has fallen back in recent polls after he said that France’s rule in Algeria was a “crime against humanity”.

Although polls show that the lion’s share of Bayrou’s supporters flow to Macron without his presence in the race, with the rest going to Fillon and Le Pen, Macron’s standing has remained unchanged regardless of whether or not Bayrou is in the race or not. So as far as the electoral battlefield is concerned, Bayrou’s decision is not a gamechanger.

But the institutional support of the Democratic Movement will add to the ability of Macron’s new party, En Marche, to get its voters to the polls on election day, though the Democratic Movement has never won a vast number of deputies or regional elections. It will further add to the good news for Macron following a successful visit to London this week, and, his supporters will hope, will transform the mood music around his campaign.

But hopes that a similar pact between Benoît Hamon, the Socialist Party candidate, and Jean-Luc Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the Left Front’s candidate, look increasingly slim, after Mélenchon said that joining up with the Socialists would be like “hanging himself to a hearse”. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.