Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri: 3 things to know

Another round of states vote for their Republican candidate.

In the latest round of the Republican primary race today, a total 76 delegates are at stake: 36 in Colorado and 40 in Minnesota. The Missouri primary election is also taking place; however the state's failure to adhere to party rules on scheduling means its 52 delegates will be awarded in a separate caucus on 17 March. Mitt Romney is currently ahead with 81 delegate votes to Newt Gingrich's 27, Rick Santorum's 15 and Ron Paul's seven. Yet the voting behaviour of the residents in these deeply conservative states is expected to show no correlation to how the votes currently stand.

It is important to note the "types" of Republicans taking to the ballot box today: moreso than in other areas of the US, residents of Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri identify as being "very" conservative, and a large proportion are Tea Party members and Evangelicals.

Colorado caucuses (36 delegates)

This key battleground state was won comfortably by Romney in the previous Republican candidate race: it is particularly interesting to compare the results of the 2008 Republican presidential primary here between its candidates John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. Then-Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney won the state (and its full 22 delegates) with 60 per cent of the vote: three times that of the eventual nominee, John McCain.

Yet the frontrunner appears to be on the defensive. Earlier today, the Romney campaign released a memo by its political director, Rich Beeson, in which he wrote, under the headline "The Reality of February":

It is difficult to see what Governor Romney's opponents can do to change the dynamics of the race in February. No delegates will be awarded on February 7 -- Colorado and Minnesota hold caucuses with nonbinding preference polls, and the Missouri primary is purely a beauty contest. Except for the Maine and Wyoming nonbinding caucuses running through February, the next contests are on February 28 in states where Governor Romney is strong. Arizona's 29 delegates will be bound in a winner-take-all contest. Michigan, the state where Governor Romney grew up, binds 30 delegates.

This disregard for the worth of Colorado's vote points to the changed perception of Romney in the state. During the 2008 race, Romney was seen in Minnesota and Colorado as the more conservative candidate relative to John McCain; in 2012, he appears liberal alongside Rick Santorum.

Missouri primary (no delegates; 52 delegates on 17 March caucuses)

Speaking to residents of Hannibal, Missouri four days ago, Santorum boldly said:

When we go head to head with Governor Romney, we can beat him. When Speaker Gingrich goes head to head with Governor Romney, he can't. The polls show it and it will show on Tuesday . . . If I'm out of the race, most of my votes go to Governor Romney. If he's [Gingrich] out of the race, most of his votes go to me.

And Public Policy Polling had good news for the Santorum campaign:

Missouri looks like a probable win for Santorum. He's at 45% there to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Paul. Minnesota provides an opportunity for a win as well. Currently he has a small advantage with 33% to 24% for Romney, 22% for Newt Gingrich, and 20% for Ron Paul. And Santorum should get a second place finish in Colorado, where Romney appears to be the likely winner.

This seemingly-sudden propulsion in the race is down to Santorum's popularity among voters here: his favourability comes in over 70 per cent -- far higher than Romney's in the 50s and Newt Gingrich, who wavers around 48 per cent. Gingrich will not participate in the Missouri primary, having missed the filing deadline. He has just announced, however, that his campaign is in for the long-haul: running at least until the Republican National Convention which takes place in Tampa the week beginning 27 August.

As Richard Adams recognised in the Guardian's election blog, for the first time the four candidate will be in present in four different states by the time votes are counted this evening: Santorum in Missouri; Romney in Colorado; Gingrich in Ohio and Ron Paul in Minnesota.

Minnesota caucuses (40 delegates)

Further numbers from Public Policy Polling in this deeply conservative northern state have Santorum ten points ahead of both Romney and Gingrich. However, as Mark Blumenthal at the Huffington Post notes:

The three PPP polls also found that a third or more of the voters in the three states say they might still "end up supporting someone else," rather than their first choice -- 31 percent in Colorado, 35 percent in Minnesota and 38 percent in Missouri. That result, which the PPP release characterized as indicating an "unusually volatile" race, may indicate the potential for further change or simply reflect that many have already changed their minds, perhaps more than once in recent weeks.

Still, as it currently appears, Santorum could very well wake up tomorrow having won two further states and been placed second in a third. That would grant him three victories from the eight states that have voted so far, and an unexpected surge at this stage in the race.

Alice Gribbin is a Teaching-Writing Fellow at the Iowa Writers' Workshop. She was formerly the editorial assistant at the New Statesman.

Steve Garry
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The footie is back. Three weeks in and what have we learned so far?

Barcleys, boots and big names... the Prem is back.

Another season, another reason for making whoopee cushions and giving them to Spurs fans to cheer them up during the long winter afternoons ahead. What have we learned so far?

Big names are vital. Just ask the manager of the Man United shop. The arrival of Schneiderlin and Schweinsteiger has done wonders for the sale of repro tops and they’ve run out of letters. Benedict Cumberbatch, please join Carlisle United. They’re desperate for some extra income.

Beards are still in. The whole Prem is bristling with them, the skinniest, weediest player convinced he’s Andrea Pirlo. Even my young friend and neighbour Ed Miliband has grown a beard, according to his holiday snaps. Sign him.

Boots Not always had my best specs on, but here and abroad I detect a new form of bootee creeping in – slightly higher on the ankle, not heavy-plated as in the old days but very light, probably made from the bums of newborn babies.

Barclays Still driving me mad. Now it’s screaming from the perimeter boards that it’s “Championing the true Spirit of the Game”. What the hell does that mean? Thank God this is its last season as proud sponsor of the Prem.

Pitches Some groundsmen have clearly been on the weeds. How else can you explain the Stoke pitch suddenly having concentric circles, while Southampton and Portsmouth have acquired tartan stripes? Go easy on the mowers, chaps. Footballers find it hard enough to pass in straight lines.

Strips Have you seen the Everton third kit top? Like a cheap market-stall T-shirt, but the colour, my dears, the colour is gorgeous – it’s Thames green. Yes, the very same we painted our front door back in the Seventies. The whole street copied, then le toot middle classes everywhere.

Scott Spedding Which international team do you think he plays for? I switched on the telly to find it was rugby, heard his name and thought, goodo, must be Scotland, come on, Scotland. Turned out to be the England-France game. Hmm, must be a member of that famous Cumbrian family, the Speddings from Mirehouse, where Tennyson imagined King Arthur’s Excalibur coming out the lake. Blow me, Scott Spedding turns out to be a Frenchman. Though he only acquired French citizenship last year, having been born and bred in South Africa. What’s in a name, eh?

Footballers are just so last season. Wayne Rooney and Harry Kane can’t score. The really good ones won’t come here – all we get is the crocks, the elderly, the bench-warmers, yet still we look to them to be our saviour. Oh my God, let’s hope we sign Falcao, he’s a genius, will make all the difference, so prayed all the Man United fans. Hold on: Chelsea fans. I’ve forgotten now where he went. They seek him here, they seek him there, is he alive or on the stairs, who feckin’ cares?

John Stones of Everton – brilliant season so far, now he is a genius, the solution to all of Chelsea’s problems, the heir to John Terry, captain of England for decades. Once he gets out of short trousers and learns to tie his own laces . . .

Managers are the real interest. So refreshing to have three young British managers in the Prem – Alex Neil at Norwich (34), Eddie Howe at Bournemouth (37) and that old hand at Swansea, Garry Monk, (36). Young Master Howe looks like a ball boy. Or a tea boy.

Mourinho is, of course, the main attraction. He has given us the best start to any of his seasons on this planet. Can you ever take your eyes off him? That handsome hooded look, that sarcastic sneer, the imperious hand in the air – and in his hair – all those languages, he’s so clearly brilliant, and yet, like many clever people, often lacking in common sense. How could he come down so heavily on Eva Carneiro, his Chelsea doctor? Just because you’re losing? Yes, José has been the best fun so far – plus Chelsea’s poor start. God, please don’t let him fall out with Abramovich. José, we need you.

Hunter Davies is a journalist, broadcaster and profilic author perhaps best known for writing about the Beatles. He is an ardent Tottenham fan and writes a regular column on football for the New Statesman.

This article first appeared in the 27 August 2015 issue of the New Statesman, Isis and the new barbarism