Welcome to the New Statesman website. Please sign in or register to participate in the conversation.

Star Spangled Staggers

US politics from outside the beltway

Syndicate contentRSS

5 things to take from the New Hampshire primary

Mitt Romney has won by a substantial margin. What does this victory mean for the rest of the primary race?

"We made history," Mitt Romney told supporters last night as he celebrated his double digit win in the New Hampshire primary. It is certainly a rare feat for a non-incumbent Republican to win both Iowa and New Hampshire (he is the first to do so since 1976).

The victory cemented his frontrunner status, but what exactly does it mean for the rest of the race? Here are five facts we can take from this.

1. The inevitability is building

It was a foregone conclusion that Romney would perform well in this state, which neighbours his own, Massachusetts. He managed to scoop up 39 per cent of the vote in New Hampshire, despite never previously getting more than 25 points in opinion polls.

Exit polls suggested that support for Romney came from across the ideological spectrum, with 48 per cent of his support coming from "very conservative" voters, and 37 per cent from people identifying themselves as "moderate to liberal". This makes it difficult to identify a clear weak spot in his support. Republicans across the board appear to believe that Romney is the candidate most capable of beating Obama.

2. There is no clear rival

While winning the first two primaries will make Romney the candidate that undecided voters in South Carolina are most likely to tilt towards, it remains a deeply conservative state, and Romney remains a moderate conservative.

However, there is no clear conservative alternative. Rick Santorum surged in Iowa, but that failed to manifest in a repeat performance in New Hampshire, where he won less than 10 per cent of the vote (see below for full breakdown of the results). He and Newt Gingrich -- who invested a lot in this state -- were essentially tied in fourth place: New Hampshire rejected both of them.

Although either could still perform well in South Carolina, the fact that the Republican opposition to Romney is fractured will work in his favour.

The field is in disarray: Jon Huntsman trailed in third place despite staking most of his scant resources on the state. Despite limited funds, he has vowed to fight on.

3. Obama need not worry -- yet

Romney won by a large margin in New Hampshire. In his victory speech, he essentially ignored his Republican rivals and focused on criticism of Obama, all part of a plan to build a sense of inevitability around his campaign.

Yet Obama's re-election team can take comfort from the fact that reports suggest a relatively low turnout in New Hampshire. The final figures have yet to be collated but this cements the impression given by opinion polls leading up to the primary race that none of the candidates have managed to ignite much enthusiasm among Republican voters.

4. Attack lines are sharpening

The benefit of having five other candidates still vying for the status of lead rival is clear. But on the downside, it means that attacks on Romney are being refined and sharpened.

Potentially the most damaging of these relate to his time at Bain Capital. Newt Gingrich has accused Romney of presiding over the "looting" of companies during this time, and Rick Perry said these corporate restructuring firms were "vultures". Attack videos have labelled him as "ruthless" and intimated that he was esponsible for the loss of jobs. This did not translate into a reduced vote share for Romney in New Hampshire and it is not yet clear how it will play out over the primaries, but it is certainly possible that it will become more of an issue. If Romney makes it to the national contest, Democrats will attack him on this issue from the left.

Romney, then, did not emerge from New Hampshire unscathed, and the race will only get dirtier from here on in: it is in South Carolina that he will face his first crush of negative ads.

5. Ron Paul cannot be ignored

The libertarian Texan has long been dismissed as a crank, but this is the second poll in which he has finished with more than 20 per cent of the vote, coming second in New Hampshire and third in Iowa.

He is the only candidate who matches Romney in the breadth of his organisation across the country, and it is showing. Support for Paul amongst the young has surged because his non-interventionist stance on foreign policy taps into the strong anti-war mood.

Yet doubts remain over his ultimate electability: Romney's team have said they would welcome running against Paul. It remains unlikely that he will emerge victorious in any major contest, but such a strong showing means that the GOP will struggle to ignore him at the convention in Tampa.

The full results

Finally, here is a break down of the results in full:

results

Click here to enlarge the image.

Source: New York Times

 

 

 

Tags: Ron Paul  Republican Primaries  Newt Gingrich  Mitt Romney

35 comments

jankaas's picture

^

"you should comment on your side of the pond"

for the last time, this thread is about New Hampshire USA, not Hampshire UK.

the rest of your post is you plucking figures out of thin air. without providing your sources one has to assume you are lying. which is after all your whole modus operandi to date.

jij bent zo'n raar mannetje!

jankaas's picture

"comment on items concerning your side of the pond"

this thread is about your side of that pond you fool. but
thanks for proving me right; you have nothing to offer but your obsession with matters scatological. guess everyone needs a hobby...

John Cheese's picture

@janksta: "I haven't made a single statistical claim": finally, you understand! You don't know your material & just cut & paste. You're a 3rd grader...

crabstix's picture

'klomp'

jankaas's picture

^

"finally, you understand!"

what are you on?

you are the one making claims, but fail to provide your source. this means you are a joke Cheesy. capice?

jankaas's picture

i think the single best thing for Obama at least is that he won't have to fund any 'attack' ads. he can just download them from Youtube, made by the current GOP candidates, and 'mash em up'...

for all the disdain i have for modern US politics/politicians, the lack of credible Republican opposition is good for almost no-one. most depressing.

John Cheese's picture

^ Shama-lama-ding-dong! Name the movie & I'll respect you some..

John Cheese's picture

@janksta: your response is equivalent with wah, wah, wah...Netherlands dodged a bullet with black Friday's euro-downgrade of credit rating, but the Nethers has been put on warning of "negative outlook". The noose tightens my over-taxed friend.

jankaas's picture

^

i see you are unable to back up your figures with verifiable sources. hence you are dismissed.

John Cheese's picture

@jankers: there you go again. Throw some #'s at me, but don't send me a link & I might think you have studied. You should try reading to get your info. You embarrass yourself & know nothing.

jankaas's picture

@Cheese

how easily you lie, habitually so.

"the auto taxpayer failed bailouts"

really?! let's see what's happening in the real world;

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/us-light-vehicle-sales-at-136-...

http://www.mlive.com/jobs/index.ssf/2011/11/michigan_unemployment_rate_f...

so the car industry is clearly and unambiguously recovering as a result of Government bail outs. and, unemployment is falling in the automobile state of Michigan.

it's cretinous to hear a Yank like yourself failing to deal in facts such as these.

jankaas's picture

^
stop begging, it's embarrassing.

John Cheese's picture

pretty lame, Sloot

jankaas's picture

^

"there you go again."

yes, reminding you that serious adults provide the source of their data. since you still haven't done this, i accuse you of lying.

defend yourself, for once in your life, with evidence.

John Cheese's picture

@jankass: "The Netherlands" is US slang for your private parts! You can't help that you had bad education- Ha!

John Cheese's picture

@the jank: cut & paste skills- 100%, reading, interpretation & comprehension skills- 10%. You can't discuss your points- you lose...

John Cheese's picture

^Jan 13 21:03 nutjob...

John Cheese's picture

Bain Capital is capitalism- most conservatives are for it. I'd compare Bain's net job adds to 0bam's Soyndra green job fiasco or the auto taxpayer failed bailouts any day. Ron Paul's a nut. Mitt will do fine against the 1st Golfer. When our gas hits $5/gallon this summer- look out...

jankaas's picture

"You can't help that you had bad education- Ha!"

now look what you've done John, gone and broken my Irony-O-Meter...

btw that was your last freebee on getting my username wrong, or is your scatological habit out of control? i don't mind making allowances for the mentally infirm, just let me know.

John Cheese's picture

@jank: still can't comment on Solyndra huh? Didn't think so...

jankaas's picture

"jank"

yes John..?

"still can't comment on Solyndra huh?"

seeing how you ignored the other 'facts' you posted that i dissected with US Government statistcs, is it any wonder?

seriously John, i'll quote your last Dear Leader regarding this petty game you're playing'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMKkQx_dTC4

jankaas's picture

^

14 January 2012 at 14:56

J Unit CYP UK's picture

I'm cool with all the candidates. I think there is a lot of scaremongering by the left on both sides of the pond because Obama isn't bashing good results out of his presidency. I think a more conservative candidate will win in S.C and Romney will re take the lead in Florida. Who knows?

jankaas's picture

^

i know what you are, but what am i..?

John Cheese's picture

@jankers: ditto, airhead...

John Cheese's picture

@jankers: again, you should comment on your side of the pond, where you might have a clue about things. QE3 may be starting here soon- which is 0boe's wealth redistribution/tax. 4th Qtr US growth figures being downgraded as we speak from 3.5% to 3.0 & 1st Qtr 2012 down to 2.0%. U6 unemploymt #'s at 15.5% at best! Tu eres un malo viento!

John Cheese's picture

@jankaas: where do you get your "supposed knowledge"? Autistic maybe? GM stockholders have taken a $5.7 billion dollar hit since the US taxpayer bailout. The Treasury prob won't sell the stake before 0boe's re-election campaign- it would look bad to lose money on the deal. Ford Co elected not to take the bailout money & did not declare bankruptcy. Not commenting on Solyndra, I see? Don't blame you- it's a fiasco, all headed up by your man Barry 0. They are seeking to still pay "bonuses" to the remaining execs, a failed company. Except it's our (taxpayer) money. Get a clue pal.

Jones's picture

Romney did poll above 25% http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republica...

John Cheese's picture

^ ¡Culo grande & tu mama tambien!

jankaas's picture

^

16 January 2012 at 20:43

jankaas's picture

@Cheese

" where do you get your "supposed knowledge"?"

my 2 links in and of themselves answer that you eejit. they utilise official Government data. no 'knowledge' required, just raw data.

" Get a clue pal."

as ever, lot's of hot air, and not a scrap of verifiable data. do this properly or piss off.

jankaas's picture

^

wat ben je toch een klein kind. je Spaans is bijna zo gebrekkig als je Engels, en tenminste begrijp ik ongeveer wat je zegt terwijl jij geen flauw idee hebt eikel.

John Cheese's picture

@jankass: comment on items concerning your side of the pond & you will do fine turdblossom. Ha!

jankaas's picture

^

" ditto"

that is meaningless as i have not made a single statistical claim. you have lied repeatedly when posting data about growth, unemployment, stock markets etc etc etc etc etc etc

all pulled straight out of your arse. dickhead...

Post new comment

By submitting this form, you accept the Mollom privacy policy.

Latest tweets