Jon Huntsman withdraws from Republican race

Former Utah governor to endorse Mitt Romney amid poor polling results in South Carolina.

Jon Huntsman is bowing to the inevitable and quitting the Republican race after trailing in the polls in South Carolina. He will endorse frontrunner Mitt Romney.

This narrows the field to just five: Romney, the former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, former senator Rick Santorum, and Texas governor Rick Perry.

The former Utah governor positioned himself to the left of Romney (a fellow Mormon), but his moderate brand of conservatism failed to resonate with a Republican party that has increasingly moved to the right.

His exit from the race comes as no surprise. He opted out of competing in Iowa earlier this month, as he believed the state was too conservative for him to win. Instead, he concentrated his efforts on New Hampshire, where he needed a second place finish. He came third, and surprised commentators when he vowed to fight on, saying third place was "a ticket to ride". But since arriving in deeply conservative South Carolina, he has struggled to gain traction.

Huntsman's personal fortune is estimated at $50m. His father, worth an estimated at $900m, set up a super PAC which advertised on his behalf, but had become wary of throwing more money at the bid. He is not the only family member to take an interest in the campaign; Huntsman's daughters hit the spoitlight when they filmed videos to support their father's flagging campaign, including this spoof of Herman Cain's campaign ad:

 

The endorsement of Romney will not make a huge difference since Huntsman's supporters are limited in number -- he was polling at around 5 per cent in South Carolina -- but those who did back him will naturally gravitate towards the former Massachusetts governor, a fellow moderate.

Formerly an ambassador to China, Huntsman's sober, diplomatic style in debates meant he failed to capture the imagination of Republican voters, who are keen for charisma and fighting talk.

His departure follows that of former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty in August, pizza mogul Herman Cain in December, and Michele Bachmann after the Iowa caucuses earlier this month. Perry, whose polling in South Carolina is barely better than Huntsman's, looks set to be the next scalp.

Samira Shackle is a freelance journalist, who tweets @samirashackle. She was formerly a staff writer for the New Statesman.

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After Article 50 is triggered, what happens next?

The UK must prepare for years, if not decades, of negotiating. 

Back in June, when Europe woke to the news of Brexit, the response was muted. “When I first emerged from my haze to go to the European Parliament there was a big sign saying ‘We will miss you’, which was sweet,” Labour MEP Seb Dance remembered at a European Parliament event in London. “The German car industry said we don’t want any disruption of trade.”

But according to Dance – best known for holding up a “He’s Lying” sign behind Nigel Farage’s head – the mood has hardened with the passing months.

The UK is seen as demanding. The Prime Minister’s repeated refusal to guarantee EU citizens’ rights is viewed as toxic. The German car manufacturers now say the EU is more important than British trade. “I am afraid that bonhomie has evaporated,” Dance said. 

On 31 March the UK will trigger Article 50. Doing so will end our period of national soul-searching and begin the formal process of divorce. So what next?

The European Parliament will have its say

In the EU, just as in the UK, the European Parliament will not be the lead negotiator. But it is nevertheless very powerful, because MEPs can vote on the final Brexit deal, and wield, in effect, a veto.

The Parliament’s chief negotiator is Guy Verhofstadt, a committed European who has previously given Remoaners hope with a plan to offer them EU passports. Expect them to tune in en masse to watch when this idea is revived in April (it’s unlikely to succeed, but MEPs want to discuss the principle). 

After Article 50 is triggered, Dance expects MEPs to draw up a resolution setting out its red lines in the Brexit negotiations, and present this to the European Commission.

The European Commission will spearhead negotiations

Although the Parliament may provide the most drama, it is the European Commission, which manages the day-to-day business of the EU, which will lead negotiations. The EU’s chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. 

Barnier is a member of the pan-EU European People’s Party, like Jean-Claude Juncker and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. He has said of the negotiations: “We are ready. Keep calm and negotiate.”

This will be a “deal” of two halves

The Brexit divorce is expected to take 16 to 18 months from March (although this is simply guesswork), which could mean Britain officially Brexits at the start of 2019.

But here’s the thing. The divorce is likely to focus on settling up bills and – hopefully – agreeing a transitional arrangement. This is because the real deal that will shape Britain’s future outside the EU is the trade deal. And there’s no deadline on that. 

As Dance put it: “The duration of that trade agreement will exceed the life of the current Parliament, and might exceed the life of the next as well.”

The trade agreement may look a bit like Ceta

The European Parliament has just approved the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (Ceta) with Canada, a mammoth trade deal which has taken eight years to negotiate. 

One of the main stumbling points in trade deals is agreeing on similar regulatory standards. The UK currently shares regulations with the rest of the UK, so this should speed up the process.

But another obstacle is that national or regional parliaments can vote against a trade deal. In October, the rebellious Belgian region of Wallonia nearly destroyed Ceta. An EU-UK deal would be far more politically sensitive. 

The only way is forward

Lawyers working for the campaign group The People’s Challenge have argued that it will legally be possible for the UK Parliament to revoke Article 50 if the choice is between a terrible deal and no deal at all. 

But other constitutional experts think this is highly unlikely to work – unless a penitent Britain can persuade the rest of the EU to agree to turn back the clock. 

Davor Jancic, who lectures on EU law at Queen Mary University of London, believes Article 50 is irrevocable. 

Jeff King, a professor of law at University College London, is also doubtful, but has this kernel of hope for all the Remainers out there:

“No EU law scholar has suggested that with the agreement of the other 27 member states you cannot allow a member state to withdraw its notice.”

Good luck chanting that at a march. 

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.